Home | Comment & Analysis    Thursday 5 January 2017

South Sudan: The reasons why regime change doesn’t work


By Longar Mathiec Wol

The problems that faces South Sudan are either made within or millions mile away and affect the innocent citizens of South Sudan. Regardless of the foil attempted coup according to the government description or misunderstanding or massacre of Nuer in Juba. The songs of regime changes continues from the initiators and implementers. Now, that the people of South Sudan has come back to their senses and agreed to bring peace to their country although is still shaking, we don’t know whether the initiators of regime change will look for other avenues to overthrow the government of South Sudan.

Yes they are trying hard those avenues through economics and social uprising but the people of South Sudan have seen enough and I don’t think whether they are ready to continue perusing the regime change that goes through rough roads. The only way I know people of south Sudan can change a regime is through ballot papers apart from that is a destruction of the country. But are we ready to destroy what we have been fighting for generations, almost half a century need to be destroyed only for the interest of the few who need to retain their positions.

Last three or more years we waged war against ourselves and now that the unstable peace has come back, not all of us are benefiting in term of positions that are shared among the warring parties, you and I who were not in the government still remain out of the government; then the question is why do we fight ourselves for the other people positions instead of continuing building a peaceful South Sudan where we do our own businesses and raise our children and educate them. The only benefit I know about this peace hopefully if it work is the silencing of the guns and some of us who their relative are lucky to be appointed in the government go for begging and grouping and gossiping for the whole day which is not helping us in any way.

So now the madness is almost coming to an end, but people are still contemplating what cause the conflict and if it stops from there, what will prevent the repeat of the same things in the future. Since we knew or some of us knew that we were either incited within or outside the country to kill ourselves for unknown reasons. Now we have known the disadvantages and advantages of what to gain and what to loose. Those who think that rebellion is the way to get the top positions in public services is nothing but a betrayal of your people who suffered for long.

Since we learn rebellions in the name of change is not taking us anywhere; therefore, is time to look for another alternative way of changing the government and that is through the ballot box. Here I am talking of democracy as the only main that can work in 21st century. Therefore, it will take us to why the regime change advocate outside democracy within or outside the country hasn’t work and won’t work.

Why regime change hasn’t work is because people of South Sudan struggle for long and they were not ready to make short cut by overthrowing the government they struggle for long to bring to it existences. People were busy with their social activities to rebuild their lives that has been destroyed by the colonial regime. People were not ready for any struggle any time soon regardless of whether the dictatorship that has been advocated by the opposition exist or not. It was too early for another struggle for the people of South Sudan who were demoralized by the longer and brutal civil war in Africa unless through democratic main.

Lack of trust from the man who led the process by the majority of the people of South Sudan. since the leader of the opposition was one time betrayed the people of South Sudan during the independence struggle and kill many people to what become known as Bor massacre which make people lost confidence hope in him regardless of the apology he made to the people of Bor still it would have taken time for the people he apologized to observe him and slowly regain trust with time and to see whether to accept the apology or to live with it. But immediately the same man has repeat the same mistake that make many people to be reluctant in joining the second struggle.

Tribalism propaganda, the coup or whatever it’s call, immediately after it fail the only option was tribe. So me personally I think the tribe propaganda led to the failure in opposition side even people who lost confidence in government remain behind assuming that they would be victimize based on the tribe. Also, since Nuer and Dinka has been having issues of cattle raiding and communal violent among themselves for so long complicated the matter. People turn blind eyes to the mistake both leaders from the government side and the opposition side did and remain loyal to them (two leaders) regardless of the failure both leaders had.

The mentality of Junubin won’t allow coup in South Sudan regardless of whatever the case might be I think it will never work and if it work it might lead toward genocide since the tribe comes to power through coup might see itself as superior and the rest inferior. What make President kiir’s government to continue to exist besides all the challenges is because some people know they have voted for it. That what I think safe it. You might have difference explanation. Another reason I think the use of force won’t work is because we militarize society. We have been in war for long and our experiences toward war made people to not longer fear war since it almost becomes part of their daily life and war seems to be like a joke so when it happened some enjoy.

People are tired of the western countries incitement in Africa, some of the Africans are beginning to understand that western countries still have the indirect ideological colonization. They only accept leader or leaders in Africa who only do what they want and when the leader goes against their will they will come up with what is called regime change as tool of threatening the weak government in Africa. Now people have understand and will no longer be abide by that negative ideologies of divided and rule, where the divided people based on their tribes, incite them to kill themselves and when one tribe become victorious they install it in power so that they can access to whatever they want from that poor and weak country. Africans knew that trick and they are tired of it.

The opposition leader is not an alternative to Salva Kiir in my own view for a reason that they were in the same government as president and vice president respectively for eight years. If he was to do something good to the people of South Sudan he could have done since he was the man in charge of South Sudan since Salva Kiir was a First Vice President of the then Sudan government. What did he do to convince the people that during his time he has done this and that so that people will see him as an alternative for a position or not, he didn’t do that. How does he expect people to choose him as alternative with failure that is known by everyone in the country?

Riek is tribalistic in nature, when someone who had been a vice president and a first vice president a man known as academician base his political interest all the time on tribe. That approach made people to think that if this person come to power than he might decide to silence or target certain tribes in his government.

The only way for the people of the great country South Sudan is to put aside their tribal affiliation and ask themselves tough questions and the way forward. Democratizing our country is best way forward toward resolving our own problems. We are a country multiethnic groups ever in Africa; if we put our tribal loyalty aside and become loyal to our country we will one day become strongest country in African and if possible in the world.

The author can reached at longarmaxiech@gmail.com

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