Home | Comment & Analysis    Saturday 15 April 2017

S. Sudan’s secession: Lavrov has unfolded only a part of the story, then what next?


By Hussien Arko Menawi

When Mr Sergey Lavrov the Foreign Minister of Russia has uttered the unsaid about the conspiracy against the unity of Sudan, many were taken by surprise, not because of the extent the superpower states interfered in our policy and damaged the interests of the people of Sudan but because how Omer al-Bashir the head of the state dares to sell his own country and people on the international political market.

All Sudanese undoubtedly Aware that the issue of ICC has become a tremendous pressure on Omer al-Bashir and his NCP party and at the same time it is a lucrative business for many players on the market of International politics.

However this shocking statement by the first man of diplomacy in Russia has raised so many concerns about the future of the remained Sudan, as long as there are still many areas similar to South Sudan, their prolonged conflict not addressed, the stick of ICC is still standing as a threat against the same dictator and the business of international politics on Sudan not yet closed.

What was heard from the statement of Mr Lavrov can be easily interpreted in a context of further disintegration of the Sudan which means that the survival of Omer al-Bashir and his NCP party once again stands as a vital issue against the unity of Sudan and the scenario of the South is overshadowing the political arena in the existing Sudan. The closest interpretation is the separation of Darfur and the two Areas in a deal similar to what happened in the South, let us speculate this scenario for the time being as it is the possible one.

From this perspective it also seems there is a ceremony underway for three other or more newly born states that probably soon emerge from the womb of crises of the existing Sudan to form a new map within which visible political entities are Darfur, the two Areas and the Central and Northern Riverian of Sudan which has been named by Dr Hamdi as Dongola Kosti Sinnar Triangle. For the Eastern Sudan, the situation is less predictable but a conflict is likely to break out over Eastern Sudan and the two powers possibly to interfere are Eritrea and Ethiopia while the Central Sudan that aspires to be a part of Pan- Arab will definitely fall under the intimidation of its strong neighbour in the north if not an easy prey for Egypt.

This scenario is not a coincidence but it is an outcome of accumulated political, diplomatic and military setbacks. The so-called Islamic Movement of Sudan, since its coup d’etat has led the country into successive crises and misfortune political risks at the expense of the country’s sovereignty and the interest of its people. The experience of the Gulf war was the beginning of risky political adventures geared by the Islamic Movement in Sudan. In this war the ,Sudan had paid deep political and diplomatic price because of political immaturity and reckless leadership led by Dr Hassan al-Turabi and his disciples such Ali Osman Taha and his contemporaries in politics who never have had experiences of running a state apparatus, in particular what has to do with the intricate art of international relations.

Because of lack of a rational political vision the National Congress Party has incited the world against the Sudan in a very short time through its stupid practices and aggressive media. While the full-scale Jihadist war was going on in the South, not only the people of Sudan but also the whole world watched how the media was aggressive at that time. Most of the media discourse seemed as if there was a declared war against so many countries. Neither US nor the Gulf and Egypt nor even the neighbouring African countries have been spared by the tonne of Jihadist threats sent through early morning messages recited by a zealot military officer called Younis Mahmood.

The events of the Gulf led to the division of the world into alliances similar to the situation in the Second World War and the natural consequences were that the loser had to listen to the winner and pay the costs of its position. Thus Sudan has paid the price of its supporting the aggression of Saddam against Kuwait in 1990.

Unfortunately the Islamic Movement in Sudan did not benefit from its mistake of supporting the invasion of Kuwait, instead, it continued with further adventures that have direct involvement of the NCP influential figures against International and Regional bodies and characters. The attempt to assassinate the former president of Egypt Mr Hosni Mubark resulted in a deeply political, diplomatic and military conflict between Sudan and Egypt and since then Sudan has been under the squeeze of almost daily blackmail.

Political fluctuation is the constant quality of the National Congress Party and following such instability in domestic and international politics made Sudan pay a heavy price for the survival of the NCP Regime and its kleptocratic elements. The latest shift of the NCP Regime from the Iranian pole to the Gulf pole will not be less damaging than the previous ones as long as all these shifts are not on basis of equitable relations. The Regime turned to the Gulf pole because of immense domestic and international pressures and that is why the Gulf States found this opportunity to use the regime for dirty roles such as the war in Yemen and Ethio-Egyptian tension.
If we ignore the damage brought by the NCP on Sudan due to its toxic policy whether the division of Sudan or loss of its territories aside, the next most awful question is that how much damage Sudan is waiting for, in the coming period if the NCP Regime continues in the policy of selling the sovereignty of the Sudan ? The answer to this question may not require much effort particularly from anyone has the ability to predict in Sudanese politics and it is not even much difficult to the ordinary Sudanese but the answers of HOW and WHEN will remain the core challenge for many of us including the NCP Regime. This is true because much of the issue or policy in Sudan during the NCP Regime is purely cultivated from its mistakes by others and unfortunately many decisions are taken against the interest of the people in Sudan while decision makers in Khartoum have no any role, this happens because almost the players know the golden rule of the game which simply taken on basis of let the Regime in Sudan commits a capital crime and then to be trapped upon its mistakes.

In fact, the Regime has been dragged like a laboratory rat into a very risky and lengthy maze route for many times before it has made any calculation for consequences might result from its policies. It has been forcefully driven through Naivasha, Cairo, Abuja and Doha and at each juncture, it was goaded by the policy of stick and carrot. In a time span of almost three decades, the NCP Regime stepped on many complications with no necessity. It sponsored international terrorism and Khartoum has become a shelter of an Islamic terrorism, it committed genocide in Darfur and the south Sudan. Some of its influential elements involved in an assassination attempt in Addis Ababa and overtly sided Saddam Hussein in his invasion of Kuwait? and in the end each crime ended with shaken consequences of which, the disintegration of the country, the indictment of the head of the state and a concession of a piece of land.

Now what is unseen about the future of Sudan not hidden behind the Regime’s Intelligence services in Khartoum but as Lavrov disclosed in his press conference, a lot of unsaid about the future of Sudan is hidden in the White House, the Kremlin, the Elysée, 10 Down Street. Brussels and maybe in Beijing and what we Sudanese eager to say is that our ship is navigating hazardous waters with reckless crew and we thank Mr Lavrov for disclosing this tiny part of the iceberg on the route but we need to hear more from the White House, 10 Down Street, the Elysee, Brussels and Beijing.

The views expressed in the 'Comment and Analysis' section are solely the opinions of the writers. The veracity of any claims made are the responsibility of the author not Sudan Tribune.

If you want to submit an opinion piece or an analysis please email it to comment@sudantribune.com

Sudan Tribune reserves the right to edit articles before publication. Please include your full name, relevant personal information and political affiliations.
Comments on the Sudan Tribune website must abide by the following rules. Contravention of these rules will lead to the user losing their Sudan Tribune account with immediate effect.

- No inciting violence
- No inappropriate or offensive language
- No racism, tribalism or sectarianism
- No inappropriate or derogatory remarks
- No deviation from the topic of the article
- No advertising, spamming or links
- No incomprehensible comments

Due to the unprecedented amount of racist and offensive language on the site, Sudan Tribune tries to vet all comments on the site.

There is now also a limit of 400 words per comment. If you want to express yourself in more detail than this allows, please e-mail your comment as an article to comment@sudantribune.com

Kind regards,

The Sudan Tribune editorial team.
  • 19 April 2017 05:25, by Ronn91

    I would like to say that this blog really convinced me to do it! Thanks, very good post. word cookies game | hotmail email login | hotmail account login

    repondre message

    • 19 April 2017 18:15, by Kuch

      Mr. Hussein Arko, there was no way under the sun the South Sudanese people were to live side by side with the so-called cloned arabs of North Sudan, never ever not even in million years. The hatred we have towards the so-called cloned arabs of North Sudan is ingrained in our DNAs and just wait though. There will not be an inch of Dinka/Jieng man land that will remain occupy by the so-called cloned

      repondre message

      • 19 April 2017 18:20, by Kuch

        arab of North Sudan, never ever. The current war in our country is a Geo-political war over our resources and to counter China. And the evil behind the current mess in our country are the US, the UK, the UN, their creepy NGOs and their M16, the CIA and their other creepy agencies. And their fools like their Riek Machar, Lam Akol and Thomas Cirilo are being used as puppets/stooges by the foreign>>>

        repondre message

        • 19 April 2017 18:24, by Kuch

          criminals. And some Nuers and some Equatorians low lives are being used by the US, the UK, their UN, their sleazy NGOs and their spies as their pawns/proxies to fight their dirty war to crawl their evil selves into our country so that they can come and loot our country like they currently doing in Libya, CAR, Iraq et al. But the US, the UK, their UN and NGOs are wasting their times and our times>>

          repondre message

          • 19 April 2017 18:30, by Kuch

            You fellows have these days seen how the US, the UK, their UN and their NGOs and their spies don’t even mentioned your massive problems in your North Sudan hellhole, but they are so fixated on our country and our people with lies and lies after lies. This is simply because South Sudan is where these hyenas from the US, the UK, their UN, Their creepy NGOs and some of their evils in between are>>>

            repondre message

            • 19 April 2017 18:35, by Kuch

              desperately salivating to come and plunder like they are now looting CAR, Libya, Iraq, Yemen, Syria, Ukraine and other countries. But the fools do not that here in South Sudan, we have never ever been fans of any evil on earth who thinks he/she can stand over our necks, never ever. Who says we want the evil white Americans, English people and their evil juus in our country?>>>

              repondre message

              • 19 April 2017 18:40, by Kuch

                The US, the UK, their UN, France, their evil juus and some of their criminals in between usual regime business always work for them in Middle East, West Africa, Central African or Latin American countries; but right here in South Sudan, nada, that is not going to happen under the sun. A lot of bloody noses. This is what the criminals from the US, the UK, their UN, their creepy NGOs and their spies

                repondre message

The following ads are provided by Google. SudanTribune has no authority on it.

Sudan Tribune

Promote your Page too

Latest Comments & Analysis

Sudan’s removal from terror list taints U.S. values 2018-11-10 08:34:32 November, 9th, 2018 The Honorable Michael Richard Pompeo Secretary of State U.S. Department of State 2201 C St NW, Washington DC 20520 USA RESPONSE BY SUDAN LIBERATION MOVEMENT (SLM/A-AW) TO (...)

R-ARCISS: A Peace that divides the signatories and non-signatories 2018-11-10 07:58:28 By Tito Awen, Juba-South Sudan I keep wondering if peace can divide or unite the partners. I am not so young nor unmindful not to have known what happened after signing of the Comprehensive (...)

U.S. Move Ignores Sudan’s Abuses Against its Own People 2018-11-09 06:56:11 U.S. Considers Lifting Sudan’s ‘Terror State’ Designation By Jehanne Henry With all eyes on mid-term elections in the United States, almost no one noticed that on the same day the US State (...)


Latest Press Releases

Progress observed at end of second month of R-ARCSS implementation 2018-10-22 06:44:02 Press Release 21 October 2018 South Sudanese government released 24 detainees in the implementation of the revitalized peace agreement said the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) (...)

4th Annual Tony Elumelu Foundation Entrepreneurship Forum Announced for 25th October 2018 2018-10-15 12:38:14 PRESS RELEASE OCTOBER 14, 2018 Africa’s leading entrepreneurship-focused philanthropic organisation, the Tony Elumelu Foundation (TEF), has announced October 25, 2018, as the date for its (...)

Unity State community in Kenya supports Khartoum peace agreement 2018-08-17 08:33:21 PRESS STATMENT 14th Aug, 2018 Re: We shall Rally behind Khartoum Peace Agreement The Unity State Community Association in Kenya was established in 2010 to organize and mobilize the people of (...)


Copyright © 2003-2018 SudanTribune - All rights reserved.