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S. Sudan could lose $28 billion if conflict continues for 4 years


April 20, 2017 (JUBA) - The ongoing conflict in South Sudan could cost $28 billion if it continues for four years unabated, the People’s Democratic Movement (PDM) said in a policy brief released on Thursday.

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Arms and light weapons have been used by both warring parties in South Sudan to commit abuses (Photo courtesy of SSANSA)

PDM is an abroad based observatory grassroots movement that was formed by concerned South Sudanese in the country and the diaspora in response to the political crisis and fast deteriorating economic, humanitarian and security situation in the country, amid heightened ethnic polarisation and the devastating conflict.

The group, in a policy brief, Sudan Tribune obtained, claimed an estimation of the economic and financial costs of the ongoing conflict and intransigence lies between US$22.3 billion and $28 billion if the conflict continues for another 1 to 4 years.

The PDM document further argues that the social and economic loss is even greater when the conflict’s effects are measured over 20 years to allow for flow-on effects, the damage to the country is between $122 billion and $158 billion.

By that time, it argued, the crude oil under South Sudanese soil would have been depleted or auctioned as ‘futures’ to the lowest bidders.

"There is a need for a leader other than President Salva Kiir Mayardit, to ensure "unbiased and efficient communication and inclusive dialogue between the people in the affected communities," it stated.

The brief, which examined how best the national dialogue could be an opportunity to reconciling the nation, stresses that a positive outcome can be achieved if President Kiir is persuaded to step aside from being the patron of the dialogue process.

“The convener must not in any way or form be linked to the regime, nor sympathise with the government or the opposition. “The government should instead concentrate on creating a meaningful dialogue that includes the opposition, as well as a path to justice”, it argues.

The brief also questioned the credibility of the two research institutions nominated by the president to provide technical support during the process, saying the founders are either known government, party officials, supporters or Jieng Council of Elders.

“The institutions nominated by President Salva Kiir Mayardit do not meet these criteria and therefore are not eligible to assume the critical role of convener of the national dialogue. These two institutions, the Sudd Institute and the Ebony Centre, are not ethically, or intellectually representative of the diversity of South Sudanese opinion," notes the policy brief.

It added, "The key staff members of these institutions support the regime. Others are members the Jieng Council of Elders (JCE) or have actively promoted the JCE ideology and "unpopular" decrees that were designed to derail the peace process”.


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  • 21 April 2017 01:24, by Wise Fox

    There will be nothing good under Kiirminal Dinka president, he destroyed the young nation. Jieng Kiirminal president used country’s resources to buy arms in order to wipe out none dinkas in the conutry. their projects of ethnic cleaning will end soon.
    We are going to set fire on oil pipeline in Upper Nile very soon, to see if Dinka evil will survive, since this Dinka government depend on oil.

    repondre message

    • 26 November 2017 13:38, by sirking79

      Just admiring your work and wondering how you managed this blog so well. It’s so remarkable that I can’t afford to not go through this valuable information whenever I surf the internet! The Coconut Oil Secret

      repondre message

  • 21 April 2017 02:59, by Kush Natives

    That’s fine! Our grands grands children will pay that deficits. As long the government of South Sudan brought those who’re responsible for this crime into justice, like what Uganda just did to LRA, we will leave Riek Machar and his alike when we see him walking with only twenty bodyguards! $28- $158 billions is nothing.

    repondre message

    • 21 April 2017 03:59, by lino

      Ya Kush,
      Do you really understand anything in economy? Sudan was crying every day when was left with $50 billion debits for their ugly war mentality. I bit you South is not ready even to lose $1 billion for destruction. Use that money to build health centres, schools, and roads.

      repondre message

      • 21 April 2017 05:12, by Kush Natives

        What are you trying tell me about the economy? This very interesting question supposed to Riek Machar and his alike, they’re the ones responsible for an economy collapsed in the country. U.N. MUST stop immediately providing foods to those confused elements called themselves rebels, so that the war ended. There’s no any other way around.

        repondre message

  • 21 April 2017 08:09, by Future1

    Some people don’t think strategically. Who comes from family without tribe specially the authors. May be western world citizens. We (South Sudanese find ourselves in different ethnic groups. Who among us chooses to be Dinka, Nuer,Zande, Bari, Bongo, Taposa, Murle =64? None. Then, stop JCE things and suggest the good method of taking our country out of this crisis. Stop blames but way forwards plze

    repondre message

    • 21 April 2017 09:47, by Lango2010

      you are right no one directed God to create him/her in the tribe he/she belong, it was God plan. we all contribute to this mess by killing ourselves on tribal line. we will never make a successful nation if we target each tribes. and the curse of God will remain upon us for generation to generation to come. true peace, love and unity of all tribes is the way forwards.

      repondre message

    • 21 April 2017 09:47, by Lango2010

      you are right no one directed God to create him/her in the tribe he/she belong, it was God plan. we all contribute to this mess by killing ourselves on tribal line. we will never make a successful nation if we target each tribes. and the curse of God will remain upon us for generation to generation to come. true peace, love and unity of all tribes is the way forwards.

      repondre message

      • 21 April 2017 11:26, by anyanya1

        Dinkas are like Satan they are not accepting their mistakes even what. Some of them know this road is taking them to hell some know and ignore,some don’t know.

        repondre message

  • 21 April 2017 14:03, by Adok son

    It is not only $28 billion, there will be a time for all what u had committed against the right of the people of SS.
    If the international community sided with you Salva, then God Almighty who have created all creature will answer you one day

    repondre message

  • 21 April 2017 14:05, by Adok son

    .......I meant "u have committed" sorry for error above.

    repondre message

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