Home | Comment & Analysis    Monday 25 September 2017

The shifting centres of gravity of JCE regime.

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By Oyet Nathaniel Pierino

Did they know that it was going to be protracted and catastrophic? From the war song that was sung in nyakuron Saturday 14th, December 2013 to the attempted disarmament of Nuer section of presidential guards and split in the SPLM party and organized forces; the influence and political dominions of the JCE has shrunk to record low. The regional and international community are sending one signal and message; "state failure."

All the JCE political and military calculations have failed, 4 years on; 2013; 2017. Where are the brands of the red army-Dutkubeny, Gelweng, and Mathiang Anyor, were they not shattered? Investigative media put the death toll at over 100,000. Why did they have to die to defend power? Instead of going to school and having a productive living.

The hallmark of it all was the Julio 8th, 2016; it came closer to the noses! over 1370 guards of the president Kiir perished in single battle in J1. I mean close relatives of president Kiir and First Lady Ayen are no more.

The shocking scene of streets of Mading Awiel littered with faces of starving widows and orphans; they are glaring at Malong Awan and his rich sons who murdered their breadwinners, little did they know that power kills whoever holds it unfairly. Whoever unfairly retains power should be prepared to kill and also be killed, it’s the political cult of Bedel Bokassa, Iddi Amin, Basar Al Assad, Saddam Hussein, Sihad Bari, Muhamar Gaddafi etc. President Kiir is also trying his fortunes. Yes he has surrounded himself by speculators. Those who look for fortunes and quick wealth. Some were until recently with Dr Riek Machar after seeing he was signing peace agreement in which government jobs would be available. But when it broke loose in J1 on the 8th July; they changed coats; "I am for peace, I am for South Sudan" Actually it’s to beg for bread and wine.

But the ruling rek sections in warrap; Awan, Nyok, twic, Aguok and apuk are killing themselves over the succession questions back home but in Juba, they say "hakuma thouk..hakuma thouk... kong Koch". Every time there is succession discussion it’s taken home rather than to the SPLM party or JCE meetings.

Well Awiel has finally realized that they have been cheated, used and wasted. They had thought it was about Jieng power. But it’s not, it’s the rek dynasty, the rule of Mayardiit family and lineage.

Now Awiel has become too wise, actually, they have been the bedrock and beast of burden of the regime until they (Malong) were kicked out of the equation. Awiel and bor now are are offering alternative platform within the JCE politics. If Awiel and Bor act smart by uprooting Salva Kiir and his friends they can offer a viable alternative to the regime and sue for peace with the rest of South Sudanese. This will make sense. Meanwhile, Salva Kiir has gone to lakes states to fish Agar, Gok, Cueibet, Aliab, Yirol to substitute Awiel; to add onto apadang and ngok.

In Upper Nile region; the Bor sections are also unilaterally harbouring dangerous ambitions to the rek regime. The sects of Hol, Twic, Athoc, and nyarweng of bor have forgotten their north-South bor differences and are trying to collect the shoes of late John Garang by rallying support behind Majak Aguot and Rebecca Nyandeng for presidential materials. This is a taboo for the rek sections who say, the Bor again!!

At the moment, senior political and military elites are sitting on young Elegant intelligent intellectuals from bor the likes of Kuol manyang, Makuei lueth, Malual Ayom and their contemporaries as Salva Kiir and his machinery eliminate potential future competitors to their successors. why and who killed Makuac, Isaiah Abraham, two months ago another young Bor intellectual was murdered in Juba. This has become a pattern.

So Kiir is desperately plotting his political calculus again; the rek family+agar+apadang+Taban Deng in Upper Nile+ collection of isolated Equatoria political and military elites to hold his power together. This will never work.

The author can be reached at oyetnathaniel22@gmail.com



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