Home | Comment & Analysis    Wednesday 27 September 2017

South Sudan will split into three countries

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By Clement Maring Samuel

It is time to call spade a spade, but not a big spoon. President Salva Kiir Mayardit and his Jieng council of Elders have not learnt any lesson from the history of successive Khartoum regimes. He instead put on their shoes and begun walking the walks and talking the talks and dancing the tunes of the Khartoum rulers. The Jieng Council of Elders, a prototype of the National Islamic Front (NIF) of El Turabi, capable of influencing Khartoum leadership with spiritual thoughts as well as political ideology, has emerged as a shadow government and operating behind the scene to influence President Kiir Mayardit to rule South Sudan with iron fist. These tribal chiefs, who claim supremacy over South Sudanese tribes, have conglomerated to form this notorious body, which is responsible for causing havoc in South Sudan. But President Kiir does not realize that this body is digging for him political and spiritual graves.

When Nimeiri took power in 1969, hopes of Southerners rose, and some people looked at him as one who would settle the Southern question known as “Southern problem”. This Southernquestion is today revived under president Kiir by the Jieng Council of Elders to become “South Sudan Problem”. In 1972, a peace deal was signed by Jaafar Mohamed Nimeiri and Joseph Lagu to implement important terms of the agreement and build a better Sudan, but Nimeiri dishonored terms of the agreement in favor of his Islamic aspirations, a similar thing today when president Kiir signed the ARCSS with reservations to allow him to abrogate terms of the August 2016 Agreement. President Nimeiri then abrogated the Addis Ababa agreement by arrogating powers upon him, and he arrogantly said: “this agreement is neither a Koran nor Bible”, words that were mimicked by President Salva Kiir Mayardit on the implementation of ARCSS. Nimeiri went on to divide Southern Sudan into three regions and unilaterally instituted sharia law indiscriminately which mounted wider pressure that resulted to his downfall and demise from politics of Sudan. His decisionhad invited not only opposition from Southerners but also from northern Sudanese. Similarly, President Kiir under influence of the Jieng Council of Elders unilaterally instituted the 28/32 States as a maneuver to divide and rule the 64 tribes of South Sudan in favor of his tribe, a plagiarism of Nimeiri’s policy to divide the Southern Sudan under influence of National Islamic Front headed by its spiritual head and political guider Hassan Turabi. The Jieng Council of Elders as an entity is behaving like the Janjaweed of Darfur, the infamous bandits whose atrocities are even detested by Satan the master of evil. The Janjaweedpolicies were supported by the leadership in Khartoum based on Arab supremacy and extreme Islamism. The Jieng Council of elders’ policy is supported by President Kiir based on the notion that Dinka is the majority tribe in South Sudan, and for thisobnoxious claim, Jieng usurp upon themselves the mandate to rule South Sudan for life regardless of rest of other tribes, and that is why they don’t want peace in the country. It is not a bad idea to rule for life, but what kind of ruling is that which is supported and accepted by all? If they want to rule for life, the Jieng Council of Elders should device better mechanisms ofruling a complex society like South Sudan with diverse ethnicities. The rulers in Khartoum had divided Darfur into three States, to subjugate and discriminate the Fur people in every aspect of their lives. The effect of this divide and rule policy applied by Jieng Council of Elders is impacting negatively onJubek State where the same President who granted Jubek to become a State is the one threatening to grab the assets including direct state revenues, and asked the State Government to relocate her headquarter either to Rajaf or Lobonok, and that Juba city council to be renamed as National City Council. What kind of ruling and ruler is this/that? Even Johannesburg, the wealthiest province in South Africa is left with all her natural resources to the State (Province) government without intrusion or interference of the National government in Pretoria. What is so special in Juba that the historic city should be renamed as National City council? Why isn’t Kampala city council renamed? Why not other city councils around the world renamed? The fact that South Sudan’s capital is based in Juba does not guarantee leverage for national leaders to grab, rename and chase away the long-established headquarter of the indigenous people from its original scene. This is looting of State’s resources, land grabbing and expansion of Dinkanization policy in Equatoria, which is condemned in the strongest terms, not only by the living people but also by the spirits of the dead people. Even the spirit of late Garang would not accept this selfish decision by Kiir and his Jieng elders. Late Garang in fact wanted the National capital to be temporarily in Rumbek, and gradually move to Ramcel with established form of government. Instead of implementing his predecessor’s last Will, President Kiir waste time in mobilizing the Jieng community for war and grabbing other tribe’s land. President Salva Kiir Mayardit is creating another war within the ongoing war, and by doing so, he is actually scattering people to rebel even though they don’t have interest to do so. The national government should not be build at the expense of certain communities. The capital city is a national entity and being a national entity should not be use to oppress, suppress and manipulate the lower levels of the government-how could a father chocks his child like that? If the National capital is unable to coexist with Jubek State capital under president Kiir, then it is better to be relocated elsewhere in South Sudan.

By being so rigid to peace in South Sudan, President Kiir and his Jieng Council of Elders are laying grounds for South Sudan to disintegrate into three countries. President Kiir ought to know that it was the failure of Addis Ababa Agreement which drive the 2005 Peace Agreement that culminated into division of Sudan into two countries, because the SPLM/A of which he signed one of the significant protocols would not sign a fake deal that would one day be abrogated. The loopholes found in the Addis Ababa agreement granted the South self government other than self determination. Similarly, the Jing Council of Elders has influenced Salva Kiir Mayardit to grant the 28/32 States as a self government, but not self determination, something purported to divide and rule, but he doesn’t realized or he might have undermined the fact that dissatisfaction of this self-imposed policy shall lead the three regions into self determination.

The war with Khartoum under President Omar Hassan Ahmed El Beshir was more deadly on the civilian population, something which has caused memorable scar to South Sudanese and has moved them overwhelmingly to push that brutal regime away through last vote of the referendum. President Kiir should not dream that another referendum for the South would not happen if he keeps on dragging this senseless war to extreme situation. In fact, the atrocities committed under Salva Kiir from December 15th 2013 to present are worst than those under the successive Khartoum regimes from 1983 to 2005. During Omar El Bashir’s time, the Army Officers had adopted a spiritual guidance under Hassan El Turabi and they become so radical that they treated the Southern people like sheep slaughtered for Ramadan festival. Similarly, and what is so painful is that the same army who stood vehemently for the liberation of their own people are wiping their own people away like flies. There are indisputable signs that the country is being ruled by a tyrannous ruler. The unnecessary killings, rape, rampant arrests, lack of freedom of speeches, fears, displacements, famine and death, are indicators of a cruel ruler. Yet, President Kiir does not acknowledge them as problems, instead of spoiling his relationship with the people by saying “the people who ran to Uganda were chased away by the social media” If those who ran to Uganda were chased away by the social media; what about those who ran to Khartoum? And those who flock to the Democratic Republic of Congo?Ethiopia? Kenya? The Central African Republic? And what about those who are displaced within the country? What of those dying of famine? What about those in detentions containers? Is social media the one raping women and arresting people and looting their properties in Juba and other parts of the country? Where is the peace that president Kiir is talking about?

Looking back to the break of the CPA negotiations in 2002, to some extent the peace talks has stalled as the warring parties were engaging in physical confrontation on the ground at the wake of negotiations, but it was revived through the personal involvement of late Garang and Vice President Ali Taha, something which president Kiir will never do with his political foes Riak Machar and other opposition political leaders. It is imperative that president Kiir, Riak Machar the G10, Thomas Cirilo, Lam Akol, Gabriel Sangsong Sang, Bangasi Joseph Bakosoro and the other opposition leaders should personally commit themselves face to face to transform the stark relations between them and move away from looking each other as enemies to partners in peace. The recent ultimatum of 30 days issued by Defense Minister Kuol Manyang Juuk for SPLA-IO to surrender is a language that heightens the war. As a revolutionary leader himself, he knew that during the war with Khartoum, both the SPLM/A and the Sudanese government did not reach peace through military victory but through engagement in negotiating table which involved a total commitment of top political leaders. Defense Minister Kuol Manyang Juuk was very close to John Garang. He knew how committed John Garang was to his political foe Ali Osman Taha, and how he handled him to reach a peace deal, especially on the security arrangement. He should learn from him and advice President Kiir to engage in dialogue with his political foes.

The election which president Kiir is pushing for 2018 without ending the conflict is premature. Those who would participate in that election are the elements of the Jieng council of elders who are misleading president Kiir and benefiting from this cruel regime. When we pointed out the “Jieng Council of elders’, weare typically referring to that body of the Jieng who have formed themselves to promote the Jieng rule in South Sudan as per the Dinka culture, those who are benefiting from the cruel rule of Salva Kiir in the expense of entire people of South Sudan. There are so many marginalized Jieng who are suffering silently because of the wicked policies created by this selfish entity called Jieng Council of Elders and their dire supporters. The Jieng Council of Elders (JCE) is a 45 members representatives coming out from the various States of Dinka community to promote Dinka ethnicity. This group was formed in 2013, under its Chairman Ambrose Riny Thic to oppose the upsurge in popularity of Riek Machar in gaining the SPLM leadership from Salva Kiir Mayardit. This body is known of masterminding the recruitment of the Dinka youths collected from Greater Bahr el Ghazal region known as the Mathiang Anyor, to protect the seat of Salva Kiir Mayardit of which was indoctrinated to be a Dinka hold and carried out the worst atrocities against the Nuer, people of Western Bahr el Ghazal, the Equatorians, the Murle and the Shilluk people.

By declaring elections next year, president Kiir is not solving the problem of South Sudan but worsening it; Peace is fundamental for free, fair and credible election, or else, the coming election will remain like the one-sided national dialogue which was launched with wrong motives and in wrong time. Take it; or reject it. Truth is always bitter and is hated by those who do not want to change. Professor John Mbiti said: “If you don’t want to change, the change will change you”. The implication of such rigidity shall be dangerous and dramatic because circumstances beyond your own schemes shall force you to change. President Obasanjo said during his interview in BBC hard talk that “if you don’t want to leave power, power will leave you”, but it is prudent if you would not allow power to leave you up to the grave. When power is leaving you, it is not going to be like that where president Kiir enclave his former Military aide Gen. Paul Malong in house arrest, it is going to be like that of Sadam Hussein and Muammar El Ghadaffi who were forced out of power aggressively than peacefully where its consequence extended to family members, relatives and close confidants. It is better for power to leave you like Nelson Mandela.

The pain that President Kiir is inflicting upon the people of South Sudan is reaching its peak. President Kiir is testing the patience of those who have folded their hands using the theory of peace other than war. President Kiir should accept their quest by engaging himself to dialogue with his political enemies. If the SPLM/A could dialogue with the National Islamic government of Khartoum to reach a peace deal in 2005, what is it that very difficult for president Kiir to accept dialogue with his political enemies in the South? His rigidity to dialogue with Riak Machar is showing the world that, it is not really Riak Machar who is the obstacle to peace, but Salva Kiir Mayardit is the real obstacle who needs collective efforts to force him to end this war. Indeed, by injecting pain to people, Kiir is awakening the patience of the silent majority to pick up stones and throw at this obstacle. These stones will be like the Arab-spring, and when that time ripens, South Sudan will not remain the same again. South Sudan will disintegrate into three States, and Salva Kiir Mayardit and his Jieng Council of Elders are responsible for it because they have proven to the people of South Sudan and the whole world that the Dinka people do not know how to rule. It is proven under Salva Kiir Mayardit and his Jieng Council of Elders that Dinka governance is characterized by looting, killing, plundering and destroying the country in eyes of the people and the international community. We don’t expect another good Dinka to rise after Salva Kiir to claim to be an angel given this evil divisive policy created by the Jieng Council of Elderswhich is embraced by all Jieng. Birds of the same feathers fly together. When the Jieng Council of Elders (JEC) 2015 Master Plan, known as the Dinka Development Plan (DDP) was trending, it raised high the aspirations of all Dinka within the country and abroad because their long-awaited quest to eliminate other tribes has finally come. The atrocities committed by theMathiang Anyor against other tribes, mainly the people of western Bahr el Ghazal, Equatorians, Nuer and Shilluk were not condemned by the Dinka community locally and internationally.

The rise of Paul Malong to key Military position was viewed by the Dinka community as an empowerment to impose their tribal agenda using the Mathiang Anyone to attack civilians in their own lands, rape women and chase them away to foreign land, and yet the Master is mocking them by saying they were sent away by social media. This strategy is to fulfill the assertive claim by the Dinka community that Equatorians are not South Sudanese. The more atrocities the Jieng committed in Equatoria land, the success is their strategy of land occupation. That is why in Nimule region, some residential villas of prominent Equatorianswho are working in the same government are confiscated by Mathiang Anyor militias and owned as their properties, and then use as another white house to torture and slaughter Equatorians and non-Dinka tribes. The government kept quiet because the Mathiang Anyor are the State-owned militia paid to kill, loot, and occupy the land of the Equatorians as per the Jieng Council of Elder’s intended plan, an act similar to that of Rohingya minority Muslims who are made stateless by their own government in Myanmar. The good Dinka is the dead one, and what they are doing is an expansion of the Jieng Council of Elder’s agenda to rule South Sudan for the premeditated 100 years. There is no guarantee that another Dinka will be emerged from heaven or hell to promise safe haven in South Sudan. The only solution to bring harmony in South Sudan is to disintegrate into three countries because Dinka has failed to rule and live according to a standard worth to unite the diverse tribes of South Sudan. This will enable the Jieng to withheld their savage believe that being the majority in the country is taken as ayardstick to undermine other tribes and rule the country for life.After decades of greater civilization and awareness of the Dinka community, South Sudan may redefine herself through a just benchmark to reunite like the East and West Germany.Otherwise, the period experienced under Salva Kiir Mayardit through the influence of Jieng Council of Elders (JCE) has polluted every Dinka leader whether born or unborn to rule South Sudan thereafter.

The writer is a fomer deputy governorof of Terekeka State.



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