ERITREA/ETHIOPIA-Fighting talk could lead to all-out hostilities

By Martin Kimani, The Lloyds List

LONDON, May 3, 2005 — ON April 12, Eritrean President Isayas Afewerki stated that war with Ethiopia was imminent when he spoke at a ruling party PFDJ meeting.

He added that the 2005-2006 national budget would be designed with war in mind. The bone of contention is that Ethiopia refuses to recognise the ruling of an international commission on the border dispute that led to the May 1998-December 2000 war.

At least 70,000 were killed, and the commission in 2002 ruled that the Ethiopian-administered town of Badme belonged to Eritrea. Adding fuel to the fire, four Ethiopians were killed on and April 9 and April 11 by Eritrean militia inside the UN buffer zone separating the countries.

Though it may have been nothing more than a rustling incident, it stoked the appetite for war as Eritrea claimed that those killed were official Ethiopian infiltrators.

Large Eritrean military convoys are being moved to Assab in south-eastern Eritrea and the Eritrean Foreign Minister was in Moscow on April 14 to iron out a deal for Russian arms.

Ethiopia has also increased troop numbers from 60,000 to 90,000, stationing most within 40 km of the frontier, close to Badme.

UN peacekeepers in the 25 km buffer zone have started departing to avoid being caught in anticipated crossfire. It will only take a minor spark for war to commence. This is what happened in May 1998 when Ethiopian troops fired at a routine Eritrean patrol, inviting a revenge attack that launched the war.

Badme will be a flashpoint, as will other towns such as Zalambessa.

The giant $224m Tekeze dam in northern Ethiopia, being built by the Chinese government, is within range of Eritrean artillery and is a vulnerable target. Assab, the Eritrean port and historically Ethiopia’s sole outlet to the sea before the last war forced it to move cargo through Djibouti, will also be a strategic target.

Relations between these two countries are rarely mediated effectively by third parties.

At best, the outlook is for scattered border clashes during 2005.

At worst, there is potential for a return to all-out war, with thousands of casualties and the cessation of normal economic and political activity in both countries.

Exclusive Analysis is a specialist intelligence company based in London who forecast war, terrorism, civil unrest and political risk in over 100 countries for corporations. This service allows clients to anticipate and then manage risks.