Analyst: Sudan peace process reaches crucial stage as Sudanese vice president continues unprecedented talks with rebel leader
By ANDREW ENGLAND Associated Press Writer
NAIROBI, Kenya, Sep 16, 2003 (AP) — The peace process intended to end a 20-year civil conflict in Sudan that has killed 2 million people through fighting, war-induced disease and famine has reached a crucial stage following unprecedented talks between Sudan’s vice president and the leader of the main rebel group, an analyst said Tuesday.
“We have arrived this week … at a moment of truth for the Sudan peace process,” said John Prendergast, an African specialist at the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think tank. “The peace process is delicately poised between success and failure, a deal now really depends on the internal politics of the two parties.”
The talks between Sudanese Vice President Ali Osman Mohammed Taha and John Garang, head of the Sudan People’s Liberation Army, or SPLA, began in the town of Naivasha on Sept. 4, after the latest in a series of talks that began in Kenya in July 2002 had stalled because of disagreements over key issues like security arrangements and power-sharing.
The negotiations between the two men are continuing, and Sudan’s defense minister has joined the talks.
Prendergast characterized the negotiations as the “highest levels of engagement” between the belligerents since the war erupted in 1983.
“The fact that they have moved to such a high level at this juncture has increased dramatically the possibility of reaching an agreement in the near future. But it has also created a major risk that if, in fact, they don’t come to a conclusion … in the next few days or in the next week or two, the entire process could collapse,” he said.
The parties have still not reached agreements on any one particular item, he said, but after a “quite rocky” two weeks, “they are laying down proposals to each other directly.”
The main stumbling blocks are security arrangements for a six-year transition the parties agreed to in July 2002, senior positions in a transitional government, the administration of three areas of conflict in central Sudan, and whether Khartoum, Sudan’s capital, should be governed under Islamic law.
The latest war in Sudan erupted when southern rebels took up arms against the predominantly Arab and Muslim northern government in a bid to obtain greater autonomy for the largely animist and Christian south. Although often simplified as a religious war, the conflict is also fueled by competition for oil, land and other resources.
Numerous past efforts to end the war have failed, but Prendergast said both the government and the rebels now believe it is advantageous for them to stop fighting. He added, however, that there are hard-liners within both groups who still believe they can achieve a military victory.
Prendergast said the key issue to moving the process forward is solving the problem of security arrangements; the formation of a new national army and deciding whether the SPLA can retain its forces during the interim period.
“If you unlock this … you will definitely lock down a peace deal. … The SPLA will walk away from a deal that doesn’t nail down security arrangements that are satisfactory to them,” he said. “These are two armed groups ultimately – a military junta and an armed opposition group, and you need to get the bread and butter issues nailed down first with groups like this before you can move on to anything else.”
Disputes over security arrangements have thwarted efforts to end conflicts in other African countries, most recently in Burundi and Ivory Coast.
In July 2002, the the government and the SPLA reached a deal known as the Machakos Protocol, under which the government accepted the right of southerners to self-determination through a referendum after six years. The rebels in turn accepted the maintenance of Islamic or sharia law in the north, but progress has since been slow.
The talks are mediated by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, or IGAD, a regional authority.