Power equations within SPLM may change after Garang death
By the EastAfrican
NAIROBI, Aug 8, 2005 — With the exit of Garang from the scene, the power equations within the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement are likely to change in major ways.
In terms of profile and seniority, one would say that the next in the hierarchy after Salva Kiir is Riek Machar.
Yet the truth of the matter is that Machar, like the other warlords, such as Lam Akol and Theophilus Ochieng, who confronted Garang militarily, will be viewed with suspicion by SPLM stalwarts who dismiss them as recent converts.
Salva Kiir will want to avoid the perception that he is bringing closer to the centre of power former defectors who differed with Garang.
In terms of influence, the group whose political stock is likely to soar are Salva Kiir’s longstanding military comrades, who have served as his deputies, including Oyay Deng Ajak, Salva Mathok, Riek Machar and field commander Kuol Manyang.
His longstanding military aides like Malong Awan and Commander Jadalla are also likely to be more visible in the new regime.
In determining the direction of relations with the Arab north, the people to watch are Yasir Arman, a Northerner and SPLM spokesman based in Eritrea and Cairo, the chief negotiators of the comprehensive peace agreement; Commnders Nhial Deng and Elijah Malok, and people like secretary general James Wani Iga and Pagan Amum.
Who is going to be who in Kiir’s Cabinet? SPLM insiders are reluctant to make predictions.
Weeks before he died, Garang confounded pundits by dispersing key party stalwarts and appointing them as “caretakers” of the separate regions of south Sudan.
For instance, Riek Machar, a Nuer from Bentui, was sent to Bahr el Gazal as the caretaker of the region, while Theophilus Ochieng – an Acholi from Magwi – was appointed caretaker of Western Upper Nile; Pagan Amum – a Shilluk from Malakal – was sent to East Equatoria and James Wani Igga, a Bari from Juba, was posted as caretaker of Central Equatoria.
Initiallly, the postings elicited murmurs, with critics saying that it was a ploy to weaken key figures politically by posting them to the countryside.
But as it emerged later, these were temporary postings effected to avoid a power vacuum following the dissolution of the administrative structures that existed before the signing of the comprehensive peace agreement.
Thus, the most reliable guess about how Garang wanted to structure his Cabinet would appear to be a confidential document that showed how he had nominated key party leaders to a capacity building programme that was to take place in Pretoria, South Africa.
People were nominated for training in specific areas of government, suggesting that they were being groomed to take up posts in those areas.
Salva Kiir and James Wani Iga were to travel to South Africa to be exposed to how a liberation movement can be transformed into a robust mass political party.
Oyang Deng, Abdal Aziz al Hilu, Obuto Mamur Melle, George Athior Deng and Butrus Bol Bol were selected to study South Africa’s military.
Gabriel Mathong Rok, speaker of the National Leadership Council, Kuot Deng Kuot and Peter Longole Kuam were nominated to study the South African parliamentary system.
Machar was among the group who were to study the area of transport and comunications and information technology and communications, while Army Commander Paul Malong Awan was nominated for training in the environment, tourism and wildlife resources area.
Elijah Malok Aleng, the designate governor of the central bank, was to train in central banking, while Pagan Amum Okech was nominated for training in the area of public expenditure management and training
Kohl Manyang Juuk, Castello Garang and Stephen Ali Kamanyungu were nominated for training in the areas of railways, transport, and power projects.
Garang’s wife, Rebecca Nyandeng de Mabior, was slotted in the area of rehabilitation of wounded heroes and orphans.