N’djamena’s diplomatic calculations
Jan 10, 2006 (PARIS) — The attack perpetrated by the Chadian opposition in the Adré region triggered a wave of panic within N¹Djamena power circles, which led them to make some mistakes.
On the diplomatic side, Chad’s request to transfer to a city other than Khartoum the next summit of the African Union, which is to be held at the end of the month in the Sudanese capital, was rejected.
Although Chadian authorities produced a picture showing Sudanese President Omar Bachir with the chief of the Chadian rebellion (United Front for Democratic Change, FUC) Mahamat Nour, it was not enough to convince African countries, as even Chadian President Idriss Deby often received chiefs of the Darfur rebel movement.
Besides, the transfer of the African summit to another capital would have given more room for manoeuvre against the N’Djamena regime.
Interesting to note is Paris’s support for N’Djamena, notably with the visit to Chad of French joint chief of staff, General Henri Bentegeat, as well as the deployment of additional French military forces to reinforce their presence on the ground. This fact is said to have pushed President Deby to be so intransigent.
For its par, Khartoum has protested against the repeated violation of Sudanese air space by French Mirage F1C in recent weeks.
Finally, N’Djamena over-estimated the force of the Chadian opposition, as despite armament and logistic support provided by the Sudanese, the rebels lack officers, chiefs or trainers and most of the time do not know how to use the arms delivered.
The rebellion is also weakened by ethnic tensions, especially between supporters of Mahamat Nour and those of the first leader of the Chadian opposition, Mahamat Sileck, who has been jailed by the Sudanese who want to give a chance to Nour.
In any event, Sudanese authorities seem determined to put an end to Idriss Deby’s regime, as revealed by a letter to the director of the Sudanese security services, General Salah Abdallah Gosh, written in October 2004 by President Bachir.
In order to overthrow Idriss Deby’s regime, the solution for N’Djamena is first to control the town of Adré (on the border between the two countries), implying a direct
confrontation with the SLA forces (Mani Arkoi movement). The latter are indeed the best defence for the Chadian president, who, like the SLA, belongs to the Zaghawa ethnic group.
(TTU/ST)