Sudan – Beyond the threshold of hope and anxiety
By Caesar Edward Oniku
Mar 27, 2006 — The CPA was brought about by the combination of several circumstances and factors to level the playing field in an intricate game. As an n-person game, each player in the game, using its resources plays against the opponent’s strategies, hoping to attain a favorable expected outcome. Of course in the un-level playing field, the notion of “fair play” is not part of the game – though the CPA was suppose to provide the premises for it.
For USA, the CPA gave it a chance to win back Sudan from al Qaeda. When the USA government abandoned Sudan for two decades, al Qaeda had to fill in the vacuum, during the mid 1990s. However following the event of Sept-11, the Bush administration realized that Sudan is very useful for USA, for tactical and strategic reasons. So to be a broker for the peace between Khartoum and SPLA was the best opportunity the USA government had to use to woo back her loss.
It is not a surprise then that some of the architects of the genocide in Darfur have become the partners of the USA government in “the war against terror”. Besides being a place of strategic importance for USA, Sudan also represents economic interest for the USA government. By being the key broker of the peace agreement, the USA government sought to inherit the benefits of the beatitude, “blessed are the peace makers, for they and their cronies shall inherit the economic benefits of peace.”
Another factor which got the Bush administration into the Sudan was the active lobby from the Evangelical Christians in the Whitehouse, who looked at the Sudanese conflict from the perspective: “Muslims versus Christians”. For them it was natural to identify with the “Christian South”. President Bush being “a passionate Christian” made it relatively easy for the Christian lobby in the Whitehouse to draw the attention of the administration to the crisis in the Sudan.
For Khartoum, the CPA was a blessing in disguise. The link of al Qaeda with Khartoum, the event of Sept-11, and the crisis in Darfur brought Khartoum to a great predicament. And Khartoum knew if the USA adventure in Iraq was to be very successful – a quick victory, it was likely to going to be the next target. The only currency of mercy for Khartoum was then to cooperate with the USA government, while hoping that in not too distant future, things might change in the Whitehouse and it (Khartoum) will find a way out from its quandary.
So caught up between the devil and the deep blue sea, Khartoum had to choose the lesser evil – to come to terms with the CPA, and at the same time leaves some windows open for political ploys as well. Thus it is not a surprise that the CPA stipulates for the self-determination and at the same time for the Government of National Unity. For those who follow the game quite closely, they also know that the battle-cry (or the buzz word) for the CPA is “make unity attractable” for the southerners. Khartoum knows if it was going to reach for a peace deal, it had to resign to the notion of self-determination; because for SPLA, the notion of self-determination was a necessary condition, if any deal was to be reached.
Prior to the CPA, the 22 years of war brought the SPLA pundits to terms with the realization that any symmetric duel of wits is on a long-run, a lose-lose game, i.e. a game with no clear winner. So the CPA though very risky provided an opportunity for the SPLA chief war architects and chief war engineers to turn the symmetric game into a non-symmetric zero-sum-game, in favor of SPLA. The political ploy of SPLA during the negotiation was easy to fathom. By calling for self-determination of the south, the SPLA peace-engineers wanted to be true to its southern constituencies. And by making unity attractable to them, they wanted to keep the spirit of the New Sudan alive. However secretly the SPLA pundits would pray that at the end of the six years following the agreement, the masses in the south would vote for independence.
On a personal level, for the chief war architect, Dr John Garang, the CPA was an opportunity to reinvent himself as the man of peace; and to earn yet a new title: chief peace architect. So as he worked his way through the mucky world of real politics to statesmanship, he knew he would become a hero – “the man of the people”. But little did he know he would become “a martyr”, and hopeful to be beatified to become a “Sudanese Saint”.
After only one month into the CPA, the devil of bad lack dealt a blow to the CPA. The joy of the Good Friday – the triumphant entry – of the Messiah into Khartoum was replaced by the “Black Monday”. In an apocalyptic manner (as some would say as predicted by Almighty Ngundeng) the death of the Messiah brought a new dispensation. The death of the savior robbed the masses from high expectation, but hope survived! Glory to Allah in the highest and peace on Earth on the people of good will.
Beyond the will of Allah and that of the people of good will, there are three pragmatic reasons which made the CPA to survive the “Black Monday”. Foremost, the Bush Administration would not allow its strategic and economic interests in the Sudan to be foiled, just because of the death of one man. The USA government has invested so much in the peace, and it would not allow its investment be lost to yet another war. Like it or not, the Sudanese had to find a way out – but another war was not an option. As for the SPLA leadership, it was not ready to go for yet another war. Many of the senior and junior peace engineers alike were only starting to reap the benefits of the peace deal – and they would not like the process to be interrupted. Besides, there was no valid reason to blame Khartoum for the will of Allah (or an accident) which robbed the south of “a savior”. After all, for the Sudan, it is acceptable for one man to die for the follies of all people than the whole nation to perish because of one man. So will-nilly Mr. Salva Kirr had to take the driver’s seat of the vehicle without a reverse gear.
For those in the vehicle, they had to keep their fingers crossed as with hope and anxiety, they watch and pray that Allah karim – things will work for the best. For most southerners, their hope is that the devil of the bad lack will not derail the CPA, and that the cherished referendum will bring freedom to the tormented people. As for Khartoum, its hope is that Allah will make a miracle, that in less than six years, the notion of unity will be very attractive – and Sudan will not fall apart. But beyond praying for Allah’s miracle, surely the analysts and strategists in Khartoum have alternative plans, for keeping Sudan from falling apart. It is not a surprise that hearsay has it, that Khartoum is working hard to derail the peace process.
A year into the CPA, and now the devil in the details is showing up its head, hence making the progress of the implementation of the peace process very slow. Moreover many issues are becoming controversial. Some of the partners in peace are starting too trade accusations. The bond that is holding the coalition partners together is slowly loosening. Khartoum still has to deal with the issue of Darfur. In the east of the country, a new game is in the making. Within the GOSS the leadership is coming to terms with the chaotic dynamics of management in the newly formed government. All these factors taken together put the people of the Sudan on the threshold of hope and anxiety. Only Almighty Ngundeng knows what the future holds beyond the threshold of hope and anxiety.
* Caesar Edward Oniku is a Sudanese living in Sofia, Bulgaria. He can be reach by the email: [email protected]