Reflection on CPA and SPLM Led-GOSS
By Watts Roba Gibia Nyirigwa*
July 5, 2006 — Since the signing of CPA in January 2005 and the sworn in of Dr. John Garang de Mabior as First Vice President of the Sudan, President of South Sudan, Chairman and Commander in-Chief of SPLM/A, gave the peace loving and marginalized people of Sudan tremendous hope and high expectations for the bright future, and praised Almighty God for answering their prayers and blessing them with His precious gift, and for delivering them from the bondage of servitude and oppression. And particularly people at grassroots were expecting changes in their daily lives under the new circumstances offered by the peace deal. And above all, people at all walks of life have great confidence in the ability of Garang, and the capacity of his leadership and his vision to Sudan’s problems. But the untimely death of Garang at plane crash, has driven the entire peace loving people into wildness, and created profound vacuum and disarray among the SPLM/A leadership. Simply because his death came as a thunderstorm to everyone and at a crucial and watershed moment, which has been viewed by many observers as a death of CPA, and many south Sudanese wondered “why God took him at this particular time, where we badly needed him!”
When Salva Kiir succeeded Garang, peace loving people and Southerners in particular rallied behind him, and considered him as Joshua who will guard them to the safe shore. Joshua was a strong and great leader, and in all the wars which he fought, he was never defeated, simply because he followed and kept promise of God. But will our Joshua (Kiir) follow the footsteps of really Joshua and guard his people as Joshua did after the death of Musa? That is what time would reveal to us, because each time and place has got its own circumstances. But I believe despite difference of time, place and promise, Kiir is capable in guarding his people at this crucial moment, if he could only stand firm and keep the course and never waver and wither before the enemy waves, and if he could also take into consideration the circumstances after death of Garang. As after the death of Garang, there is great crack on the SPLM organization body which has to be renovated for the sake and unity of the struggle or otherwise, the SPLM structural and organizational body will remain fragile and as an easy prey. Thus, SPLM has to be structured and built as a viable political party, far from corruption and nepotism to carry and fulfill its duties, but that will never happen unless if we collectively removed barricades and obstacles confronting the viability of SPLM as a sound political party.
The marginalized and south Sudanese people in particular were keen and patient that changes in their daily life would actually start when time and day passes by, and they knew the difficulties confronting the viability of their region. And when South Sudan Legislative Assembly, GOSS, state Governors and state governments were formed, Southerners were overwhelmingly happy that CPA implementation is on a right truck. And at the first anniversary of CPA, Kiir reiterated his commitment to the implementation of CPA to the letter, and assured Southerners that, rehabilitating of south Sudan decaying physical structures is the priority of his government, and promised number of basic projects and rehabilitation of miscellaneous economic projects which would be completed within two years. Also Kiir affirmed “that Garang’s vision is the SPLM’s vision and it shall never be clouded or tarnished under my leadership”, and it was a touching statement which was welcomed by everyone. He also stressed the importance of Abyei rule and formation of its administration and south-north border commission which are the core issues of dispute between the two partners. Kiir further reiterated the importance of good governance, transparency and accountability. But it is now more than eighteen months and there was no tangible or people saw no change in their life. And everyone is wondering as where is the role of the South Sudan Legislative Assembly and GOSS, people knew that things would not happen overnight but at least there should be a move, to show to the people that actually their government is serious. Take the seat of GOSS, there was no sign of change and even the Juba teaching hospital has not yet been renovated, sanitation and streets remain as it was and the tents are the main accommodation for the MPs and government officials! People were keen and tolerant but frustration is finding its way among the people due to the slow progress of GOSS, as according to today’s talks in Juba that the south Sudan budget will be out in July and that is where the hope of people rest. Bearing in mind that budget of south Sudan depends entirely on its share of oil revenue, and south Sudan is receiving much less oil revenue than anticipated which has got negative impact on the viability of the GOSS. Here again, we were reminded about the row over the run of this essential economic sector and the required transparency involved. But if this month (July) passed without any progress in the GOSS budget, and if the recruitment of key and core government officials doesn’t start, I am afraid that due to the frustration and lack of progress in south, people will start losing confidence in the GOSS capacity. The ten states lacks fund to recruit, pay salaries and execute the fundamental projects. Thus, one wonders, as for how long will Khartoum continue to control south Sudan’s wealth for its own empowerment, and leave south in a profoundly poverty and disarray? It is worth mentioning here, as it was mentioned in an open letter by one of our Sudan Advocacy Action Forum “politically, there is a brief window of opportunity for the people of South Sudan. That window will close on or before January 2011. If that window closes without the people of South Sudan healing their scars of tribalism, and moving forward to become a united people and region, the Islamic-Arabic fundamentalists will have won the peace, and Southern Sudanese very likely will lose the freedoms for which they have fought and be denied development as a region. That window may not open again in our life times or those of our children or grandchildren. Thus, it could be true that 2.25 million of your brothers and sisters will have died in vain”.
There is general discontent among the south Sudanese and within the SPLM leadership about the snail-like progress on the road of CPA implementation. And that was obvious during the joint meeting of SPLM-NCP in Khartoum last May, which had been characterized by grave dispute between the two parties particularly on the issue of Abyei rule, north-south 1956 boundary demarcation and questions pertaining to accuracy on oil revenue and other fundamental issues. The dispute between SPLM and NCP doesn’t start yesterday, but started since the negotiation of the CPA. As the hardliners within the NCP were not happy with the CPA and blamed Taha of giving too much concession to the SPLM. Even some northerners do agree that “CPA was not fair to the northerners, as the agreement gives Southerners a say in the national government, even though they have their own, autonomous administration is a source of political bitterness, many people feel it is a complete yield to the southerners”. And consequently, Taha has been seated at the backseat and hardliners have taken over the driving seat. And this proves the worries of Southerners that “we have very big suspicions of northerners, we do not trust them, and how can you live with someone you do not trust”. But our politicians and leaders look at it in different angles, as during the CPA signing at Nyayo stadium Garang said “this peace agreement signals the beginning of one Sudan regardless of race, religion or tribe”. But this is not the case for the NCP hardliners, despite the fact that Bashir said at same occasion that “today is a glorious day for Sudan and Africa, a day to alleviate the distress and suffering of our people” and went on to say that “it is a great day, when insecurity will be replaced by security and displacement by homecoming”. All these wonderful statements by Bashir have gone with wind, and it was not a gentleman or credible statements and none of it has been kept, and this is a clear and hypocrite behavior of NCP to satisfy its political thirstiness.
It is worth mentioning that the current trend of CPA implementation has been paralyzed mainly by NCP, and none progress or execution of projects in south or war affected areas by government of national unity as stipulated in CPA, has been solely blamed on the donors for the non-fulfillment of their pledge. And I believe the CPA implementation process has been sidelined, and this is the real danger, and Darfur has become the issue of an hour with little attention to Eastern Sudan, and CPA implementation is totally forgotten or placed on the shelf. And this reminds us with the totally ignored escalating situation in Darfur when it started in 2003, while SPLM and NCP were negotiating peace in Naivasha, and now is the opposite. And as a breeding mother of conflicts, NCP is now at the full swing of predicament with scattered sight and thoughts, and she has become a centrifugal force not only with the warring parties, but also within herself and partners. And that was obvious when Ali Osman Taha left to Turkey in unusual manner for annual leave, but extremely angry and miserable by the way Bashir handles Darfur issue. Not only that, but Salva Kiir came up and declared his party’s position and his difference with Bashir and said “SPLM has no objection to see UN force keeping peace in Darfur”. The current dispute between Bashir and Taha which made the latter to grant leave to his office staff before he departs to Turkey has been described by many observers as the worst ever dispute between the two men, and it was exactly as the dispute which led to the fall of Turabi. And despite the fact that Bashir phoned Taha in Turkey before his departure to Banjul, Gambia and requested him to return to the country at once, till this day Taha is still in Turkey! And it is apparent that Taha’s prestige as a peace engineer was already over and he is becoming weak and weak everyday, simply because of CPA. And if the dispute between Bashir and Taha continued to re-occur, it is likely that Taha’s days are numbered with two options, either he will fall the louse fall of Turabi or a smart fall in a deep dark pit which is the most likely option.
* Watts Roba Gibia Nyirigwa is a Sudan Tribune columnist, he can be reached at [email protected]