Somalia’s torments
Editorial, Arab News
28 July 2006– The last thing that civil-war-torn Somalia needs is for neighbors Ethiopia and Eritrea to use it as a battleground to play out their own mutual hatred. Yesterday’s warnings to the two countries from the UN and the US to keep out of the Somali conflict are, however, unlikely to have much immediate effect. Something stronger than verbal warnings will be required.
Both Ethiopia and Eritrea are now so firmly tied to rivals within Somalia – Ethiopia supporting the weak interim government in Baidoa and Eritrea the Union of Islamic Courts which controls the capital Mogadishu and the surrounding area – that neither will tolerate a regime in Somalia dominated by the other. Already Ethiopia has sent in a detachment of troops to prop up the interim government’s forces, a move that apparently worked militarily – the seemingly unstoppable UIC offensive against them has been blunted as a result – although politically it has proved divisive with 19 government ministers resigning yesterday in protest at their presence. That could be dangerous for the interim government. Meanwhile there are now reports of Eritrea flying in a planeload of arms for the UIC to redress the balance, despite an international ban on arms to Somalia.
What makes this callous entry into Somalia’s difficulties all the worse is that by using Somalis to fight their own war by proxy, Ethiopia and Eritrea make the Somali conflict potentially intractable. The Somalis will carry on fighting rather than accept the need to make compromises because the two sides will be sustained by the belief that their respective allies will support them all the way to victory. It is a recipe for continued bloodshed. Necessary though the warnings from the UN and the US are then, a threat of sanctions may be the only way to force Ethiopia and Eritrea to stop interfering in Somalia. It has to be added that the US warning would be far more credible had it not itself interfered in Somalia, supporting the warlords against the Islamists. Even the UN can hardly be seen as impartial since it officially backs the interim government. This, however, points to a bigger picture which will have to be resolved if Somalia is to ever to regain normality.
Somalia’s future peace depends not only on a political settlement within the country, but also on the establishment of peace throughout the Horn of Africa. That most certainly includes a permanent end to the festering conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Unless there is peace between the two, they will continue to use Somalia as a convenient location for a proxy war. Equally, peace within Somalia would remove a major reason for rivalry. The pursuit of peace in the Horn has to be multilayered affair. That is clearly evident in the matter of foreign troops being deployed in Somalia. The UIC’s blanket opposition to foreign troops cannot be supported; the rivalries of the warlords, the tribalism, the inability of the interim government to establish its authority make the presence of foreign peacekeepers a must. But equally, the UIC’s demand that “all foreign troops be expelled” before there can be negotiations with the interim government cannot be ignored, because “all foreign troops” effectively means Ethiopian troops. They are the only foreign troops there. Whether they should go before negotiations between the UIC and the interim government is questionable; negotiations have to take place sooner or later, and better sooner.