CPA failure threatens Sudan peace accords
By Kor Tot
November 27, 2007 — The comprehensive peace agreement that ended more than two decades of civil war between successive Islamic regimes and mostly Christian and animist south is, obviously not the only agreement signed to end wars in Sudan. Three peace accords were signed between Khartoum and southern rebels prior to CPA and a few more with Eastern and Western rebels. All the agreements signed thus far share one thing in common, they were all prematurely dishonored.
In the past Khartoum had been very successful in signing peace accords simply to silence voices of freedom as opposed to fighting long wars that it had no chance to win whatsoever. Khartoum signed the Addis Ababa accord in 1972 with Anyanya One not because it wanted peace but rather to silent the Anyanya rebellion having failed to crush it using military means. The Addis Ababa Accorded ended up in a trash box some where in Khartoum but that did not discourage southerners to continue their quest for freedom, equality and justice for all. It actually emboldened the South in a way Khartoum had not imagined.
The Khartoum Peace Agreement that the NIF signed with Riek Machar in 1992 was not meant to bring real peace to Sudan even though Machar had good intentions and acted in good faith. Khartoum was trying to take advantage of the split that occurred within the moment so as to further weaken the SPLM/A position on multitude of issues including its ability to wage effect war against the government and its allied jihadists. It is important to mention that the principle of self-determination for southern Sudan which is currently the most popular policy issues in the south came to existence as a result of the accord. Khartoum dishonored the agreement a few years later without accounting for its failure. In spite of Khartoum’s failure to implement the agreement provided a blue print for principle of self-determination for southern Sudan.
Mini Minawi of Sudan Liberation Moment signed Darfur Peace Agreement with Khartoum more than a year ago in Abuja, Nigeria but recent media reports quoting the presidential advisor seem to be in concurrent with the southern dissatisfaction with Khartoum, particularly, president Bashir. Minawi has indicated that Khartoum is not implementing the agreement as initially agreed upon. There wouldn’t be talks and arrangements to hold talks for Darfur had Khartoum negotiated in good faith with various Darfur rebels. Salim H. Salim and Jane Ellison who helped negotiated the DPA are not convinced about the reality of the situation surrounding the previously signed accords, that is why they are still running around between Khartoum and Sirte hoping to restart talks between Khartoum and dozens of Darfur rebels. How different will it be given the situation surrounding the CPA, DPA and many other agreements signed thus far. Is their objective to get the Sudanese people sign as many peace agreements as they could possible get them to or to push for real solutions to current problems, particularly, those facing the IDP in Darfur and the threat of a return to war as clearly stated by Omar Bashir when he called upon holy warriors to report to training camps. So far, Salem Hamid Salem has been a failure to the people of Darfur and his UN counter part, Jane Ellison has not been any better.
The comprehensive Peace Agreement between the north and south should be used as a model for solving other conflicts in the country. The CPA is near demise and if the agreement falls apart, then chances are Salim and his team might be ignoring important wake up calls. The Sudan People Liberation Moment is blessed to have been firmly aware of Khartoum’s tricks and intentions. The SPLM had no doubts that Khartoum have not acted in good faith even during the negotiation process. In a nutshell, Salva Kiir seems to be exceedingly well prepared for this from crisis management stand point. Mr. Kiir has shown qualities of an honest and determined leader in crisis as tough as the one currently going between his party and the National Congress Party of President Bashir. His visit to Washington was a move in the right direction and so are his carefully chosen press statements during this time of crisis.
Omar Bashir and a bunch of enemies of peace in Khartoum are the cause of the entire crisis surrounding the CPA. The fact that southern Sudan is heading for an internationally supervised referendum for independence in 2011 is deeply troubling to Omar Bashir. According to the CPA, the referendum for self-determination for southern Sudan must be held and if that doesn’t happen, the south may opt for unilateral declaration of independence. Rhetoric and threats of return to war will not deter the SPLM from achieving the principle objective of the people. National unity based oil and not principle, brotherhood and purpose will not work. Abbyei is part and parcel of southern Sudan, annexing it to north because of oil in the region would be a tragic mistake for NCP.
Southern Sudan of today is practically different from the south of seventies when President Nemeri’s regime abrogated the Addis Ababa accord by sending home the former Anyanya combatants, re-assigning them to degrading roles or making them drink to death. While Khartoum may succeed one way or another in shaking the spirit of some elements of wicked southern politicians, it will not succeed in shaking the spirit of the voices of freedom. It is now evident that the likes of Telal Ring, Aleu Aleu, Lam Akol and those who have not come to light yet are taking the wrong side of history. Two decades of sacrifice on the part of SPLA made it possible for Lam Akol to tour the world as Sudan’s top diplomat – that is very important to remember even when the devil is pushing too much cash into one’s brief case.
It is incumbent upon Khartoum to fully implement the CPA because failure to do so may mark an end to any negotiated settlement as a way of solving the country’s problems whether be it in southern, Western or Eastern Sudan. Injustice in southern Sudan is a threat to justice in Darfur and injustice in Darfur is a threat to justice in southern Sudan, Northern Blue Nile, Abbyei and Nuba mountains and that will become a vicious circle. Therefore, the pass to prosperity in Sudan lies in two states solution and not the other way around. A unity based on shared oil and not shared brotherhood will not be made attractive even if Bashir divides the oil revenues fifty-fifty.
* The author runs a blog (www.kortot.com) on Sudan and can be reached at [email protected]