Analyst warns Sudan conflict risks becoming global row
June 5, 2023 (JUBA)- A South Sudanese defence and security expert has warned that the ongoing conflict in neighbouring Sudan could become a global dispute if not addressed adequately through unified efforts to secure a ceasefire.
“This conflict in Sudan looks a simple thing in the eyes of some Western and regional powers, but I am afraid it is a conflict which could cause a global dispute”, said Garang Kuan, a defence and security analyst based in the Ugandan capital, Kampala.
According to Kuan, reports from France and the United States express concern over Wagner troops’ activities in Sudan. This concern has prompted the United States to take a leading role in negotiating a cessation of hostilities agreement.
Kuan added that Russia and Iran’s involvement in Sudan worries the US, mainly as Wagner is extracting minerals and exploring chromite, manganese, and uranium. Sudan’s conflict also affects neighbouring countries such as Libya, Chad, and Ethiopia.
“The conflict in Sudan is also affecting neighbouring countries such as Libya, Chad, Eritrea, the Central African Republic, South Sudan, and Ethiopia, which are grappling with internal conflicts and destabilizing turmoil”.
Speaking to Sudan Tribune on Saturday on the sideline of the fundraising events to support South Sudanese trapped in Khartoum, unable to exit the conflict, the analyst described the current developing situation in Sudan as a harbinger of things to happen in the region.
The office of the first lady of South Sudan, Mary Ayen Mayardit, organized the fundraising event.
Pointing to the conflict on the GERD, Kuan fears that countries with direct borders with Sudan, like Egypt and Ethiopia, could take sides if they feel the conflict could compromise their interest.
Libya, he added, hosts military commander Khalifa Haftar who could be tempted to take a side at the risk of another. Chad could align itself with one of the two Sudanese camps based on cross-border ethnic and tribal ties.
The analyst, however, explained that what could alleviate fears over such worst-case scenarios is the unwillingness of most regional actors to be embroiled in a conflict that risks undoing their modest progress toward stability.
He further explained that lack of control and authority in Sudan could fuel illegal migration toward Europe since it has been one of the main illegal migration routes to Europe from sub-Saharan Africa for years.
Different extremist groups and traffickers from Sudan and sub-Saharan Africa could try to seize the moment to take their activities up north”, he explained.
He advocates for a truce to rescue Sudan from becoming a lawless state. He said that the US, the UK, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the African Union, and the IGAD must continue their joint efforts to persuade protagonists to decide to seek peace.
Observers say that much will depend on whether the West can avoid bailing out on Sudan the way it abandoned Libya in 2011 without a clear exit strategy, leaving Libyans trying to pick up the pieces.
(ST)