SPLM prospects and challenges in 2009

By Isaiah Abraham

January 1, 2008 — The year 2008 has been one of the most difficult year we ever seen in the past three years in the implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), signed between the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) in Naivasha Kenya nearly four years ago. On positive notes, we have witnessed the redeployment of Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) outside South Sudan after an intense pressure. There is also security improvement all over the region (though there were some isolated cases of insecurity mainly in Warrap, Abyei and Lakes areas). We have seen some improvement here and there such as business and market expansion, private activities and increase in trade movements across Southern Sudan something so encouraging to the government and the people. The Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) activities were contained and no major incident, saved for Nabanga incident against the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA). We could go on and on.

But also the year 2008 would be remembered as the year in which we lost our key SPLM/A leaders in a plane crash around Tonj in Warrap State and the smoldering military and political hostility between the NCP and the SPLM. Although the two sides are still playing politics in the minds of the Sudanese, its common knowledge that the two sides (the NCP and the SPLM) are slowly but surely edging towards an open hostility against each other. We have seen the First Vice President abdicating his duties in the Sudanese Presidency and remain hole up in Juba. He has shown defiance and negativity throughout that year especially after he was joined by an overzealous SPLM Secretary General who was booted out of the Cabinet after his infamy statement against the state generally and the NCP in particular.

Specifically, the year 2008 has been marred by tension between the NCP and the SPLM. The external factors such as the ICC and Darfur are by products of this hostility. As things stand now, the SPLM is technically an opposition not any longer a partner with the NCP and the NCP has accepted that reality and had already shopped for another partner within Northern political spectrum. The casualty therefore is the agreement between the two erstwhile partners. The CPA is slowly going down to the grave within our watch and here comes the argument in this topic. We could dismiss it but that is the reality as this year begins. We shall expect more troubles unless the SPLM and the NCP work together harmoniously.

For this year to be successful and to avoid escalation of hostility between peace partners (NCP and the SPLM), the two big political players in the Sudans now must recommit themselves to partnership and open up to one another. The First Vice President of the Sudan Gen. Salva Kiir Mayardit ought to return to Khartoum in his seat and work together with the NCP. They must publicly work together and cease from competition and tendency of overdoing one another. There is no other way round to make the CPA implemented unless the two camps remain engaged to each other. His Excellency the First Vice President must stop from being an opposition, or seen as agent of the United States (US) and work for the success of the Government of National Unity (GoNU) policies. People respect the US and no doubt the US will remain our faithful peace broker due to what they have done, but must stay within the limit of our status and allow us space to decide on our own. This an implementation time and it’s purely for peace.

His Excellency the First Vice President has to support Al Bashir no matter the pressure from the West to ensure that the CPA isn’t swept aside by international interests. Let’s believe that the ICC will issue its verdict to indict the Sudanese President (as the wind suggest it so to be soon), Gen. Kiir must not run to look for other allies leaving Al Bashir to fight alone; and he must stand with him and if it means to allow him to contest alone in the upcoming election with ICC warrant of arrest hanging on his neck, so be it. This is very critical and our leader must not ignore this voice. Working with Al Bashir is a necessity! Forget about the so-called International Community for now; there is nothing there like that. The ICC move shall trigger an already impaired relationship between the two partners. People will keep on ignoring it on their own peril. Call me names, fine! The Court must listen to those concerns with an open heart.

The other challenge for that year would be the election for the Southern Presidency. President of the Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS), to my little judgment, has failed to unite his people, fight against corruption and provide services badly needed by the people of Southern Sudan. He must own up his shortcomings or mistakes and allow other energetic leader to try his mind on Southern Sudan affairs. People don’t want to embarrass him by kicking him out or resort to force him out through violence that could invite our enemy in Khartoum to exploit our differences. He started well no doubt but had since veered and stubbornly not willing to return where he got it wrong. President Kiir could just remain as the First Vice President under Al Bashir and allow another leader to be elected in the Southern electoral box. That is my solemn advice to leaders in that party. That should be an agenda number one when the SPLM Political Bureau meet this January.

We have seen by our own eyes how difficult it has been for him to govern as a leader. He has tried his level but that the farthest he could go. A new leader will have this task of distribution national slots to all corners of our region. You can’t have the defense, finance, judiciary, interior, civil service, education and presidency from one region. This is too bad! If the Presidency from Bahr El Ghazal, the defense unit should be from either Equatoria or Upper Nile. Interior and Education should have been also split and the same is true with Civil Service. That is inclusiveness we all know late Garang was preaching and doing it all along. You can’t repeat it in saying and never do it.

LRA case is again a challenge. His Excellency, the Vice President of the Government of Southern Sudan efforts were thrown out of the window by recklessness thought from GOSS Presidency or say pressure from his Ugandan counterpart. The peace efforts and initiative must be resumed and efforts made to convince the Ugandan People Defense Force (UPDF) to stop attacking the LRA rebels until the agreement is signed. How long? Even if it takes eons, let the peace path be maintained and sustained, it pays. So long as there are sponsors for the talks, the trend must continue. His Excellency the Vice President must double his efforts to ensure that the ICC case against the LRA leader is delayed. LRA spirit for peace has been tested; they really want peace and have been quiet not attacking one for long now and our people in Acholi, Madi and Northern Uganda have benefited so much from that equilibrium.

The process for making peace is never easy; it requires a lot of patience, tact and determination. The Ugandans Peace is Southern Peace. Our people in Western Equatoria today are starting again to run leaving their homes unattended, because of UPDF attack on the LRA rebels in the Eastern Congo. We have heard of massacres in Eastern Congo from the same group, what if they could do it again in Uganda or Southern Sudan? We can’t afford losing lives when we have means to stop losing lives. Our men (SPLA) can’t be everywhere, under every tree. When we are free from Khartoum, we shall have enough soldiers to go after the LRA rebels if the need be. At the moment there is no justification to engage in attacking the LRA rebels when they aren’t harmful or threat to our security. It would be good for the Vice to maintain that stand about the non involvement of the SPLA in the join operation carried out against the LRA rebels hideout in Kiswahili Camp in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

This year challenge furthermore must be about services to the people of Southern Sudan. We should know by year end how many schools, hospitals, water systems and power, boreholes for rural populations, roads/bridges, agricultural production, governmental housing, sound trade policies, macro economic plans for the government, improved security, reconciliation/unity. These among others are mandatory things why government exists. People have waited and its time for our government to start to be seen moving towards those issues. Dropping one item and start crying never brings out why people trust you with power. Three year of peace are enough for any government to start delivering.

Abyei court case must be finalized with Abyei Protocol package with all its comas and dots untouched. The leadership must not compromise a little about Abyei future; that land is Southern Sudan land and our people must not be fooled by outsiders to award an inch of land to Messiriya in our land. Abyei is starving financially yes from the NCP presently but Juba ought to step in and provide regular budget to Arop Moyak administration there. Abyei youth meanwhile are asked to get to military trainings for that purpose; singing alone and talking don’t help here. The Abyei case remains too hot and it’s their turn to swamp military camps for future eventualities for their own land, other than other Southerners fighting on their behalf.

We want to see Corruption Bill out and functioning. Derailing it must be discouraged and the will be infused to allow our oil money to go for intended purposes. We shall see the blame game disappear when the Bill is approved by the Parliament. If Madame Pauline is the problem then there would be good reason to question her ability to head this sensitive unit. People of Southern Sudan are really cheated out of their deserved peace dividends. No one knows whether individuals who are deeply engaged in this vice are people with human hearts or not; Paulino Lukudu pray hard for them!

Looking around and see how difficult our residents in Juba, Malakal and Wau are at the moment, struggling to get something to the table to their children, you would start to shed tears, when you hear stories of one individual given $3m from the public money. You would feel ashamed to be called Southern Sudanese when your government is becoming so flashy with lives in almost everything even to celebrate an American Presidential victory with $10m. When children of leaders in power are changing sprawling cars each time and study abroad in the developed countries leaving the poor and those who actually fought the war struggling with their children on what to put on their mouths, you can start questioning the liberation spirit that snuffed million lives. One isn’t just coughing cynicism but engrossed in pessimism of what the future holds from now to 2011 due to the way this government is run by individuals charged with our national affairs.

The short and long of this story is this: am looking at a total change of guards for the Southern Presidency and then see an improved relationship between the NCP and the SPLM for the survival of the CPA. I would like to see Gen. Mamur out of detention and our army shaken at the top. I had thought that Gen. Kuol was the right man for that challenging job, but our President goes for Gen. Nhial Deng Nhial instead. Gen. Nhial appointment to the army was off the mark. The President got his gamble wrong and it was a big mistake. I don’t know whether his hot tempered won’t drive him again to punch one of the generals the same way he had then punched Mr. Mayom Kuoch in Bujumbura-Burundi in 1988, knocking off all his front teeth. I like to see Governor Aloysius of Eastern Equatoria replaced by a popular young patriot in the person of Brig. Louis Lobong Lojore. I want to see long awaited Land Bill passed and attitudes change from everyone in this city called Juba. The Juba Land Registrar is distributing land to rich men/women in Juba and is known to have more than 100 plots of land in town. That Bill will stop this greedy old man and other corrupt officials from exploiting this important community for the benefit of every Southern Sudanese. Happy New Year!

The author is based in Juba; he can be reached at [email protected]