Reasons behind NCP’s demand of 90% for referendum
By Zechariah Manyok Biar
September 29, 2009 — Political negotiations, in most cases, are based on win-win solutions for parties involved, but that is not the case in Sudan. In Sudanese history, there has been no time that Northern Sudan has granted the South what the South wanted, based on win-win compromise.
In the ongoing debate between the National Congress Party (NCP) committee led by the second Vice President of Sudan and Vice President of Northern government Ali Osman Taha, and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) committee led by Dr. Riek Machar Teny, the Vice President of the Government of Southern Sudan and Deputy Chairperson of the SPLM, the NCP is reported to have “shifted from its previous proposal of 75% of the required quorum of the would-be registered voters turn out to a more demanding position of 90% required to recognize the outcome of the referendum” (Sudan Tribune, September 25, 2009).
There are many reasons for the above shift of NCP’s position. Eric Reeves in his article published by Sudan Tribune on August 25, 2009, observed that NCP’s demand for 75% to declare the South independent is a calculated strategy based on Awad Haj Ali’s estimation that “the total number of southerners in the north might be 26 percent.”
This means that Khartoum is smartly trying to exploit the South in two way: For oil’s money, Northerners put the number of Southerners living in the North as 500,000 to make the percentage of the population in the South shrink to give the North the right to deduct the percentages of oil’s money that might have wrongly been given to the South since the signing of Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in 2005 to present. While for the sake of referendum, Awad Haj Ali claims that “the census had undercounted Southern Sudanese living in the north, and that their number might be nearer 1.5 million.” This revelation does not have anything to do with the recounting of the population or with NCP’s recognition of SPLM’s complain about the results of the census, it is just a strategy that will give the North the creditability to claim 26% of Southerners in favor of unity during the referendum.
But the North still have something to worry about. Southerners are likely going to vote for separation above 75%. There are some polls that indicate that 90% of Southerners will vote for separation. So the North has to think twice about this possibility. This might be the reason why tribal clashes have increased in the South to turn away some percentage from the 90% from wanting to be independent to wanting to be under the North because South Sudan “cannot rule itself.”
The recent talks about power struggle within the SPLM on who should contest against Bashir have given Northern strategists a false belief that Southerners are soon going to turn against themselves, giving the North a chance to claim legitimacy on favor of unity in Sudan. This strategy is confirmed by what the Speaker of the National Assembly, Ahmed Ibrahim Al-Taher, who is also NCP Vice-President, said on September 17, 2009. Sudan Tribune reported Mr. Al-Taher as saying that “the implementation of the remaining issues of Naivasha agreement is not possible without elections.” This means that NCP has calculated that there will be post-election violence in the South, leading to the abolition of CPA. That is the only reason NCP officials who always fear democracy are now beating the drum of elections.
CPA came as a pressure put on both NCP and SPLM by Bush administration. Bush administration’s pressure on the government of Sudan was real in Khartoum because Americans had accused Khartoum of sponsoring terrorism. The time that CPA negotiations were going on in Naivasha, Kenya, was the climax of Bush’s war on terror. Saddam Hussein then became the second victim in the line of bad guys. So Sudan feared that it would be next on the line of American invasions if they ignore Bush administration’s demand for peace between the North and the South. The war in Darfur had also begun, adding pressure on NCP.
Now things have changed. The new U.S. administration is occupied with internal problems. The wars in Iraq and in Afghanistan are still going on, making it hard for USA to pay attention to other sensitive issues. The war in Darfur is no longer a threat to NCP. So Khartoum is now ready for either tricking the South into unrealistic unity as usual or taking the country back to war. This idea is confirmed by Sudan Tribune’s report on September 13, 2009, in which Sudanese presidential adviser Ghazi Salah Al-Deen comfortably “dismissed any attempt to involve any international mediator on the referendum similar to the manner by which the dispute over Abyei was resolved.”
These NCP attitudes show that NCP’s negotiators believe that they are now negotiating with a weakened SPLM. Dr. Machar and his team must stick to their demand for 51% to declare South Sudan as independent and for the unity of Sudan on the reversed side. South Sudanese everywhere are behind Dr. Machar and his team in what they are demanding. If their demand takes the country back to war, then the international community will not blame it on the South because NCP’s demands are unrealistic. NCP’s unrealistic demands are only meant to force Southerners into what they do not want.
No compromise on 51%, Dr. Machar. Fight on. We the Southerners are not willing to accept something less this time until South Sudanese are given realistic choice on whether to remain as part of united Sudan or have their own country.
Zechariah Manyok Biar is a graduate student at Abilene Christian University, Texas, USA. He is pursuing a Master of Arts in Christian Ministry and a Master of Science in Social Work, specializing in Administration and Planning. For comments, contact him at email: [email protected]