Tactics to delay, abort and destroy the Referendum
By Tut Gatwech, South Sudan
October 27, 2009 — We have seen the tactics of delay, abort and destroy the referendum. The South Sudan ruling party, SPLM, has rejected the hard won referendum bill. The main provision in the referendum bill is the 51% which is agreed to declare the South independent. It is there in the bill. At least another 66% of the registered voters are also needed to come out and vote and out of which 51% will declare the South independent. This, the SPLM is saying it cannot be managed and therefore the referendum bill has to be renegotiated. Really? All the other provisions are good but the 66% can NEVER be managed or achieved? Are we really serious when we talk of this final destiny that burns inside every body to see the voting day? No, the truth of the matter is that there are coordinated conspiracies at work to delay, abort and destroy the referendum exercise all together.
Let us be very careful analyzing these groups that want to destroy the referendum by wanting to create a crisis. CREATE A CRISIS, HOW?
These groups include 1) Northern Opposition parties, 2) internal SPLM unionists and 3) some internal SPLM separatists but who are jealous about any achievement to do with Dr. Riek Machar.
1) Northern opposition parties:
These are the hyenas in sheep’s skin. Notably Sadiq Al-Mahdi, Dr. Hassan Al-Turabi and Osman Al-Mirghani. I also refer you to the article on ’southsudannation.com’ about their gathered reaction to the referendum bill. Also read about the reaction of DUP, the second largest opposition political party in Sudan. The Northern opposition groups said the bill has given too much to the South and the South is absolutely going to become independent.
They also accuse the SPLM of betraying their Juba Declaration. To them, Juba declaration is about unity. They also asked for creating a crisis with the NCP by boycotting the coming elections. SPLM wants to boycott the elections because Salva Kiir and some members of the party in the parliament foresee losing their seats. They better boycot it. The opposition groups know that NCP wants the elections. But as northerners, they want to kill two birds with one stone. They want to lull the SPLM into false belief that the elections will be boycotted. SPLM will then be reluctant to prepare its candidates. In the last hour, the opposition in the North may surprisingly accept the conduct of elections. The SPLM will be left in difficult position and may be join the elections unprepared. This will be like what happened in the population census. The SPLM will then lose many seats in parliaments.
The opposition also wants the referendum bill delayed until an elected parliament comes in to adopt it after the elections. Their strategy is to make sure that the seats occupied by the two partners, SPLM and NCP, are drastically reduced in the parliament so that the referendum bill can be aborted by the parliament. The opposition groups know their seats will increase in the parliament after the elections and may dominate it. This is why they are worried of any breakthrough now on the referendum bill reached by Ali Osman Taha and Dr. Riek Machar. They believe that the NCP will mobilize its members now to pass it in the parliament. They are on the political offensive to blackmail the SPLM’s weak leaders in the name of their Juba Declaration agreement.
2) SPLM internal unionists:
This group doesn’t see its future in an independent South Sudan. And they have two categories; those who are southerners and those who are northerners. The northerners such as Yasir Arman do not have a future in the North if the South separates. Some are criminals waiting for trial if the CPA expires or fails and South separates by whatever means. He knows that the SPLM as a political party would not be allowed to exist in the North if the South becomes independent. It will be outlawed and its certificate confiscated. What he is looking for is unity with SPLM intact as a political party to protect him.
A referendum bill like the one agreed by Dr. Riek Machar that would make the South become independent through the simple majority vote of 51% is something he doesn’t like. He prefers a crisis with the NCP that would fail the referendum and make the Americans look for other peaceful alternatives and make the country remain united.
The other category of the unionist southerners want to rule the South through mandate by the North. To them, they cannot successfully convince or administer the South, given their corrupt records and luck of development, unless they have a big brother in the North. They want to continue using the current power and wealth sharing mechanisms as a tool to control the South. If the oil money will continue to be divided in Khartoum, GOSS president to continue appointed in Khartoum, and then the southerners will have no option but to listen to them. They were shocked by the referendum bill that would make the South independent. To them, independent South means freedom of southerners to choose good leaders. They are not prepared to be good leaders. Some of them such as Pagan Amum have built 2 million dollars worth mansion in USA. They know the corrupt records would continue to haunt them. They are not ready for it. They expected a crisis.
The group also knows that the South is weak and can be controlled by the North if a full blown crisis is created. They are not happy with successful implementation of the CPA with the NCP that would see the South separate. They want to pretend that they are separatists and call for unilateral declaration of independence (UDI) that would make the South recaptured. They have stolen all the money and have not bought modern weapons that would deter air attacks by the modern fighter jets. They know the SPLA army is demoralized and not ready to fight because they don’t even get their salaries. They even dodge the LRA and don’t want to fight them.
By creating a crisis with the NCP, they hope that the nation would either go back to war and the CPA destroyed in its final stage so that the South would be recaptured and forced to unite with the North for another 21 years or even longer. What they want to see is crisis, crisis and crisis out of CPA implementation.
3) Others are internal SPLM separatists:
This are separatists that would have accepted the referendum bill but jealous particularly about achievements by Dr. Riek Machar. Their mindset is purely on perceived power struggle. They are jealous that such an achievement on referendum bill will make southerners love Dr. Riek more and may want him to be their President in the elections. They are a naive group who compromise their bigger interest of seeing the South becoming independent just because of leadership interest.
Now that the NCP has seen the weakness of the SPLM, it may give it a chance to drag on with the referendum negotiations until January 2011. Surely, we will see a crisis. The devils have succeeded to drag the nation to war again. We may soon see a crisis!
The author lives in South Sudan and can be reached at: [email protected]
Lado
Tactics to delay, abort and destroy the Referendum
Gatwech,
Southerners would lead nowhere if your Riek machar is not controlled by Dinka politicians.
Remember the 2/3 or 66% voters turn out would have led to independent failure had it been left to the poor Riek.
Oracle
Tactics to delay, abort and destroy the Referendum
This is the time for the president to stamp his authority so as to quell the divisions in the SPLM. During this time that the nation needs decisive action, it is not in the best interest of the people of South Sudan to have their leaders paranoid and suspicious of each others motives. Its time they get over their egos and make some decisions that are not only for personal political gain but for the success of South Sudan. Divisiveness is a curse that shall haunt us and unfortunately this is only the beginning. The referendum shall be the start of our independence, and the start of our so far sugar coated problems such as corruption and incompetent officials all across the board. Average South Sudanese are being taken as stupid by the leadership and they think that propaganda will be accepted all round. Self enriching leadership is a cancer that will kill the legitimacy of the politicians in the South and drastically increase the suffering of civillians. This is not new, so buckle up for a wild and very bumpy ride.
Aparana
Tactics to delay, abort and destroy the Referendum
Thanks Gatwech, for your analytical mind. You have said the truth.
Aparana.
The Wiseman
Tactics to delay, abort and destroy the Referendum
Gatwech,
You have written a piece of nonsense. I knew Machar was greedy for appreciations, and clearly made a resemblance of Khartoum Peace Agreement.
Did he go with out knowledge of the whole SPLM?
Why did he break it?
Why did he announce what was immature; something with which he was convinced by OSman Taha, who he says is a “reasonable person”?
I know Machar assumes he is the president of SPLM, GoSS and wants to rush at every thing but isn’t it a lie?
Machar must be humble. No credits can go to him if he rushes like that.
All in all, Machar is skitish and can not do anyhting sucessfuly alone.
Look at Wani, isn’t he not succeeeding bse of his humility?
First reason!
The Wiseman of Sudan
Panda-Oyee
Tactics to delay, abort and destroy the Referendum
Gatwech,
Riek was heading the SPLM delegates to Khartoum and this doesn’t mean he was the one negotiating the Referendum bill, officials like Micheal Makuei Lueth negotiated it.
You claimed that Pagan Amum doesn’t have skills to negotiate.Have you been really in New Sudan(liberated areas)or you just came from Khartoum recently? Only fools and Nyagats idiots doesn’t know the role played by Pagan Amum during Naivasha Peace talks.
Pagan signed Power sharing protocol among six protocols of CPA, can you please tell me what did Riek Machar sign in CPA, Nothing! Loook, Riek Machar is now pushing his ugliest ass toward CPA negotiations when he doesn’t have knowledge about implementation modalities.
CPA, a document without Nyagat’s signature can not be used for cheap political popularity combined with betrayal.
Down with Riek Machar, down with all traitors of our people, the marginalize group
SPLM is watching closely at Nyagats!
Akol Liai Mager
Tactics to delay, abort and destroy the Referendum
Dear Tut Gatwech,
This is the very cheap and malicious attack on Ustaz Yasir Arman, and I see it as not less than a racist motivated kind of attack.
Yasir Arman did not kill 2.5 Millions African Sudanese in the South, He did not kill 400,000 in Darfur, he did not kill 1,900 in Al-Jabellein nor did he kill 2,000 who were burned alive in the death Train at Al-Dhein.
I don’t see a genuine reason for tolerating such hatred and racist activities. God did not command the distruction of the City full of sinned people for the sake of one pure believer.
If you think that separating the South will solve the problem, then you need to answer the question whether the sepration of Pakistan from India have solve the problem.
I respect your view about getting the separation at a quicker possible speed which is actually done by the NIF separatists practically, and what is there now is not more than a symbolic unity is an over-does.
Yasir refused to accept the ministrial forfolio in the national government, NIF men are after him day and night for their efforts to kill him because of his patriotic position, yet he is a devil and NIF guys are Angels. Is this all what Southerners can pay back? What a bad luck for yasir? I hope God bless him.
Yasir Arman never forgot to pay respect for the SPLM/A fallen heroes where and when ever he gets a chance to deliver a speech something most of southerners don’t even think of leave alone doing it.
I strongly belive that if a single person should be allowed by God to enter his Kingdom, that person will be Yasir Arman. I never shook hand with Yasir, he don’t even know the existen of someone by name Akol Liai, but I sympathise with him because he is more humble and more humane to Southerners than those southerners who led the bloodiest separation movements in the south.
It just hard for me to find answer of a question “how can southerners be different” from those racist minority cliques who ruled Sudan for 50 years of ethnic cleansing.
Is it not enough to be happy for Yasir and Mansuor Khalid refusal to be appointed ministers? Yasir and Mansuor knew that Southerners deserve more than they have got, and I am sure if one of them is nominated by SPLM to be President of Sudan they would say no, this is a time for southerners to lead the country after a total failure of northern led governments, I believe that’s their intentions.
SPLM is SPLM because of Yasir Arman, Malik Agar, Abdel-Azziz Adam Al-Hillu, Mansuor Khalid and more others not only from the north, but from Arab as well. Without these guys SPLM/A would have been a PLO 2.
The student killed in 80s was killed by NIF own men because the group that Yasir was fighting on their side did not have fire or light weapons. But because NIF men were too many, and used weapons randomly, their weapons hit many of their men. So, it is the culture of NIF that, if they killed one of theirs by mistake they say it is the enemy who killed that person. The very smart people in northern Sudan are the NIF fellows because they are wrong and their survial is determined by the success of spreading lies and hatred.
murlescrewed
Tactics to delay, abort and destroy the Referendum
Who really cares what this moron thinks. He is writing to give credits to the only guy he ever slept with. Pathetic.
kulea
Tactics to delay, abort and destroy the Referendum
hey Mr Tut
thank you hundred percent man of future I never getthe man who have had astrongest heart like you who can free his people from slavery, you mentioned that actually our leaders of our country they were just worried about themselves either their children please keep remind them and let them know what the future and independent meant in stead of one of they all were still our leaders at the movement at the time of corruption according to my imagery
I cann’t blame them because they were thinking its a time for to whatever they like as they, let eat what they cuold, the term of our independent wouldn’t get any change according God’s rewarding to us as the Southreness plus nguondeng’s promiseland to us too.
you can reach me at [email protected]
Kueer
Tactics to delay, abort and destroy the Referendum
Gatwech,
Can you please stop writing all this nonsense once and for all? What make you think you are the only South Sudanese who understands the proposed percentages? You are not the only one my friend. Just because you want to say/do whatever it takes to see your glorious man, Riek, becomes the South Sudan president does not make you smarter than everybody!
Political negotiations and their subsequent compromises (you can call them give and take) are tough dude. They are not just about what one thinks as attainable, but rather are a collective ideas of the involved members of the delegation to agree on a less disadvantageous decision. It was a deadly mistake by Mr. Machar to rush to media alone last week prematurely, and even before he could consult back with his party base. Unless Riek still carry the mentality of the 1997, it is a gross mistake and foolish to think the NCP party, in the name of Ali Osman Taha, is now a trusted peace partner.
It must be recall that during the CPA negotiation in the town of Naivasha, Kenya; it wasn`t always that easy to reach a compromise as many might have wrongly thought. It took Dr. John Garang de Mabior, by far the best ever known Sudanese politician, and his negotiating team and their counterparts from NCP two years to bring us this CPA some dim-witted and easy-going politicians are now childishly tampering with.
Take heed that nobody wants to deny Riek credit for his contribution toward the current round of negotiation. It is people like you who are provocking the situation by glorifying Riek with everything including some things that even the man himself cannot take credit for!
As many may have already warned you, please stop your tribal-blinded support of Riek. Southerners know who can lead them better especailly at this tough times. They do not need tribally motivated pursuasions. And may be most importantly, the southeners know Riek than you yourself!
At this point, the choice is yours: you either stop or risk the chance of this man called Riek Machar Teny.
David Char Akau
Tactics to delay, abort and destroy the Referendum
Response to Gadat/Tut Gatwich’s articled entitled: Tactics to Delay, Abort and Destroy the Referendum
Gatwich/Gatdat.
There are a lot of myopic/Short sighted thoughts/arguments in your article as regard to who upholds, spoil or discredit the achievements of every one, everyone in South Sudan and is a South Sudanese does agree that the exercise of the referendum for self determination is the most important clause of the CPA that led to the death of the 2 million people and the displacement of the 4 millions others both internally and in the Diaspora, self determination holds all our aspirations and hopes, it should not be marred with cheap justifications such as these justifications that you are making as to who shall be popular having negotiated whether in Naivasha or behind those corrupt closed doors in Khartoum, we are all witnesses of how this right has evolved, ushered into our sights over time and from all the negotiations that we saw, whether by Dr. Riak as an individual or by SPLM as a representative political party. But how it should be achieved successfully without resort to more lost of lives and or displacements is the major task that each of the South Sudanese is faced with today that even that Gallant SPLA that you naively regarded as demoralised will never leave undelivered by all means and the Arabs know that.
Dr. Riek Machar owes the people of South Sudan a lot from Apologies to what he stands to achieve for the good of these people he claimed to represent, and every moment he achieves something little like this unclear and fabricated concessions by the NCP he in a way delivers himself from the mess of his miscalculations of 1991, he discounts his apologies than qualifying for presidency as you claimed, Boy as naive as your arguments and as you are in trying to push for leadership for Dr. Riak, have you ever asked yourself as to why the concessions to all those figures you mentioned in that article were done in 2 persons discussions not in the 2 parties’ negotiations?, is it not because your Uncle has been known by the Arabs as the top entry point into South Sudan sensitive issue such as the 1991 lures and all his other agreements he signed with the NIF, we thought that these were enough to make a wise man learn from the sweetened tricks.
Man, I agree with you without any doubts on the front of bringing to book people who steal public and assets fund entrusted to their authority such as the group you mentioned if there are evidences not simply over relying on over tea rumours of who has done what, but my question to you here is that how free from this corruption is your uncle Dr. Riak? And the fiscal indicators are clear that your uncle’s office is known across the south as overspending each year not respecting the budget lines, his office become bankrupt before mid financial year, where does this money go? And yet this is an office that does not have any direct implementable activity.
Please, negotiations are always continuous and when one party is not satisfied they continue until justifiable and amicable position of equity is reached, those who loose are those who always concede their positions because of being too naive or satisfied with short term gains, we are not sure as to why you, your uncle and groups are so settled on the 66%, no one had granted Dr.Riak either the SPLM or South Sudanese entirely a full authority to finalised the referendum agreement with NIF, so whatever he agrees/wins in any negotiations shall always not be binding on all South Sudanese, no one and that is why these achievements of Dr. Riak are subject to Ratification/acceptance by the Party that is representative of us all, you remember even the CPA was ratified by the liberation council before it became binding on South Sudanes? so do not go on the defensive of Dr. Riak because more still remains to be done before Jan. 2011, do not try to prompt us with these unfounded justifications of who is out to spoil the CPA, discredit Dr. Riak, he did a lot of self discrediting when the South Sudanese needed him most and added to the people’s pain, we are all watch Dogs to the CPA and we shall not allow any spoilers of any sort.
Please I have been prompted to write like this because, I thought those of Gadat/Gatwich, Logic Boy, Thieling and those Murle chaps were there to look at those petty tribal politics but when they encroached on serious national matters like Referendum that touch the lives of many, it touches my nerve
David Char Akau.
[email protected]