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Sudan Tribune

Plural news and views on Sudan

The secession of south Sudan remains the only viable option

By Justin Ambago Ramba

November 7, 2009 — The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) signed between the Sudanese the National Congress Party of President Al Bashir representing the North and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A) representing the South, was in fact nothing more than one of the so many stations in the Sudanese politics which is dominated in a great portion by power struggles between the centre and the margin (periphery). Though it is now staggering like a drunken person to use the description of the Sudanese’s First Vice President and President of the semi-autonomous south Sudan H.E Salva Kiir Mayardit, it is still holding with the support it gets from the USA government.

But in reality as a result of the new civil war in the western province of Darfur, the CPA had on many occasions failed to produce the expected impact on the general political situation in the country as the changes which were supposed to follow the peace agreement were in many occasions over shadowed by this new conflict and its international ramifications. As such it became clear to the Sudanese as well as the international community that the decay that affected the CPA in its first 4 years was in fact due to the preoccupation of the Sudanese policy makers and their counterparts in the international arena with the genocide that was carried out in Darfur as the Khartoum government chose to resort to this irresponsible scorch earth policy in its attempt to suppress the new rebellion.

However the single important factor that actually made the CPA to encounter reluctance in its implementation by the signatories remains to be the antagonizing visions of the two parties to the agreement. The Islamist NCP is in no any way ready to step down from any of its objectives of clinging to power, dominating the major decision making process, holding firmly to its fundamental Islamic orientation that only pays lip services to any inclusiveness and the much promised democratic transformation, as they (Islamists) will never ever accept to establish a secular system of rule.

The SPLM on the other hand is also holding firm to its ideology of bringing about a New United Secular Sudan. However unfortunately sooner than later the two partners became engaged in rows over the implementation of almost every single item they agreed on at Naivasha in 2005. And as this very agreement was mainly brokered by the USA administration under former President George W Bush, its implementation has all through depended at large on continuous USA pressures. This is quite disturbing as it shows that the Sudanese themselves are not keen in any way to implement the peace agreement the way it should be. And this is much so the position of the dominant NCP where it has resorted to playing a policy of frustrating its partner more than any thing else. Going by the record of their behaviour even before signing the CPA, it could be seen that the NCP is a party that can not make genuine consensus but rather agrees to any step only with the primary intension of buying time once it comes under international pressure.

As such the real survival of the Islamic fundamentalists rule in any part of the Sudan depends largely on keeping south Sudan within a united Sudan, only to be used as a means of rallying support behind NCP in the name of defending Islam and the perceived right of the Sudanese Arabs to continue ruling over their fellow Africans. Unfortunately things are always not as planned and the discontent in many parts of the north itself is becoming even more of a challenge to the ruling clique of Khartoum no less than the one posed by the South. Yet the greatest paradox remains in the fact that both the NCP and the SPLM have reached a point that they continuously need the American intervention in almost every step of implementing the remaining issues of the CPA and sometimes even on the smooth from day to day maintenance of their partnership. So is it not implying that the Sudan may have to have the US especial envoy as a permanent advisor and a political broker at the Sudanese Presidency in order to mediate between the two sides till the south secedes or for ever if the Sudan remains united?

The secession of the South which has become imminent is still seen in other part of the Sudan with much scepticism especially so amongst the marginalized people of the political north (Darfur, the Nuba Mountains, the Ingassana, and the Beja). The impression here is that, at the present moment the South seems to provide the hope of championing the cause of the marginalized people of the Sudan, a position which should be taken with a pinch of salt given the true background of the protracted wars fought in southern Sudan for the last five decades. But I hope that the other marginalized people of the Sudan need also to be very realistic with themselves knowing very well that southern Sudan has reached a stage that politically it is no longer compatible with any parts of the political north especially so when most of these regions participated in the Islamic Holy War (Jihad) that was declared by the rulers of Khartoum against the non Muslims of the South.

This final test of having one country and two systems which was meant to maintain the unity of the Sudan has apparently failed as it has become even a source of a grave unrest in south Sudan. The majority of the south Sudanese politicians now believe that the North has a hand in destabilizing the south by encouraging the inter-tribal fights especially in Upper Nile and Jonglei States with the ultimate intension of painting a negative picture of the GoSS to the international community. However should this be true then for sure it has dealt the last blow to any trust that was left between the two former foes.

And as long as the Sudan remains a united country, the Muslim governments in the North will continue to exploit the religious sentiments of its citizens whether marginalised or in the centre of power to create uneasiness with the South in the name of either spreading or protecting Islam. This was the situation that existed for the better part of the period from the independence of the Sudan (1956) till today, where the marginalized people of the north are being used as fodder to feed the North/South conflicts and thus guaranteeing the tight grip on power by the northern riverians Arab elites especially those with origins in the Northern and the Central Regions of the Sudan. While these helpless marginalized people got nothing in return except for more marginalization which has at times turned into frank campaigns of genocides as is the case now in Darfur.

It is hoped that with the secession of the South, the people from the marginalized areas of the North will turn to focus more efficiently in settling their grudges with Khartoum without any distraction from the South. While this policy of marginalization which is a common anomaly in the Sudanese politics, is already showing its ugly face even in southern Sudan. And hopefully the people of the South following secession should also be in position to address this anomaly after removing the chronically ill relationship with the North from the political equation. This is because right now there are a lot of corruption, lawlessness, generalized insecurity, inter-tribal conflicts and impunity in the South that southerners remain hesitant to talk about, leave alone attempting to tackle it as the political priority in most instances is now directed towards issues pertaining to the tenacious relationship with the North to the extend that some people have continuously insisted that southerners should stop criticizing the poor performance of the government of south Sudan (GoSS) at this particular time as that would playing directly into the hands of the northern NCP. However the silence on these issues can also prove to be counter productive.

Anyway whatever we say about the present partnership between the two dominant parties in the Sudan, we know that in the absence of a continuous US intervention the CPA would cease to exist. Also the SPLM’s expectations of a New United Secular Sudan has failed the test which suggests that the Sudanese in practise are more prone to end up with two separate states come 2011. This brings us to the natural conclusion that the noises being made in Khartoum by our fellow northerners whenever they hear of calls for the secession of the South, utterly remains to be seen as a mere act of hypocrisy while in reality they are the ones who sow the seeds of the anticipated secession.

Dr. Justin Ambago Ramba, MB, BCh, DRH, MD. Secretary General of the United South Sudan Party (USSP). The party that stands for the independence of South Sudan. Can be reached at either [email protected] or [email protected]

18 Comments

  • Gatwech
    Gatwech

    The secession of south Sudan remains the only viable option
    Justin Ambago Ramba,

    That is a very well articulated and analyzed article.

    Reply
  • Mr Famous Big_Logic_Boy
    Mr Famous Big_Logic_Boy

    The secession of south Sudan remains the only viable option
    Mr Ramba don’t take us back to the violated CPA, CPA is nothing as have describe in your statement, first CPA has not been fully implemented by Notorous Criminal Party NCP, the little we get goes into personl pocket some been used as tool to threaten with other, eg the murder of NCP memebr in WES, secondly some people within Southern have gone too far the role of CPA, a lot of things about CPA been violated in South by some gangs of SPLA. Occuption of land, killing, corruption not to mention since its a culture, looting, ridding of cattle oragnised by SPLA minsters, murdering of innocents oragnised by gang minsiters of SPLA, dictatorship as shown from top, attack and killing of others for their political choice, transfer of fresh U$D to foreign countries in the broad day light, registration of fake names in pay slip and many more. Lets focus on future not what we see at the moment. It is a matter of time. People will cry 100 times but nothing will change since everything become a culture to thie government. I pity that a concern citizen must know the possible solutions to this poor management.

    Reply
  • jur_likang_a_ likan'g
    jur_likang_a_ likan'g

    The secession of south Sudan remains the only viable option
    As usual Dr Ambago you have again written another interesting article about Sudan. In fact if the history of Sudan is followed seriously, the inference one draws is that the real separatists in Sudan are Jallaba. Their rhetorics and the deeds speak volumes about this. The policy of various governments that ruled the nation has never attempted to build a united nation of Sudan based on citizenship, equality and freedom that almost all nations of Africa enjoy. The independence of the country was robbed by Jallaba hitheto. It was not for all Sudanese as only Jallaba got the benefits of that despite the fact that South Sudan and North Sudan have never been a united country as Jallaba would like to portray.

    Reply
  • Akol Liai Mager
    Akol Liai Mager

    The secession of south Sudan remains the only viable option
    I would not agree with Dr Ambago on his view that “keeping South in a united Sudan” facilitates the popualrity of NIF as a defender of Islam.

    1. My view is that in contrary, “unity of Sudan” facilitates the process for the down fall of NIF and elimination of any radicalise religious or sectarian agenda in the north. This is evident in the changes of language spoken in the north for decades that; “What southerners want, into do southerners want us to give up our religion and Arabic identity for the unity of Sudan?” They know that viable answer which evolving in their minds is yes.

    The current language spoken in northern Sudn as mentioned above indicates that northerners are moving towards accepting New United Secular Sudan if that can convince Southerners to vote for unity. This is not a one side compromise, SPLM and regional Southern parties too need to compromise by selecting an acceptable Presidential Candidate, and selecting Malik Agar or Abdul Azziz Adam Al Hillu will just do the job 100%. There is nothing wrong with such compromise for SPLM and Southerners unless a racist motivated political formular left the north for south Sudan.

    2. SPLM should not be the only party in the South to hold the burden of GOSS poor performance nor should President Kiir hold that burden alone either. This is because (a) GOSS as an implementing institution, it is formed by many parties from Juba based central Southern government to Ten States governments. (b) SSLA is part of the GOSS because it is an Observatory and Legislating Institution and if it fails to do its work, there should be a collective resignations from Non-SPLM Members from this institution, and lack of this indicate that all parties in the South in including Dr Ambago USSP have miserablly failed the citizens.

    There is nothing wrong with New United Secular Sudan. What is wrong is the lack of believe, and this reminds me of Dr Wayne Dyer who says “Believe and you will see it with your eyes.”

    On his invisible power, Jesus performed a lot of Miracles. But according to Bible, before performing those miracles, Jesus ask for faith first saying to the miracle receiver that believe now and your sins will be forgiven and you will get what you want. Jesus theory remained the same up todate, as we believe in anything that we want and work for, it will appear before our eyes.

    Reply
  • Atem Angok
    Atem Angok

    The secession of south Sudan remains the only viable option
    Dr. Justin,
    Though I do not know you but still brother southerner, you deserve huge credit and great appreciation from me for your coherent analysis of Sudan politics.
    Keep up sensitizing the blinds such as the other marginalized people who are being fooled by the NIF in Khartoum to the extend of forgetting their rights simply because of being Muslims.
    people, mainly southerners have to be careful about the Nation Islamic Regime in Khartom, otherwise this idiot regime may temper with CPA as they did with many previous Agreements they signed with Southerners and the living example is Mini Minawa’s Abuja Agreement which is already in the dustbin/garbage.
    In all, my hope and the hope of other people is SECESSION of the SOUTH in 2011.
    Thank you so much Dr. Justin Ambago.

    Reply
  • mohammed ali
    mohammed ali

    The secession of south Sudan remains the only viable option
    It is always easy to blame the Jalabba!You can use whatever descreption to characteris northeners..islamist,fundumentalist,Arabs..but this does not change the facts.I can assure you that nobody in the north even in Darfur,blue nile,nuba mountains..nobody is intersted in a united Sudan with south Sudan as part of the country,whether it is new or old Sudan.Nobody is making any noise about secession of Sudan,it is only the SPLA which is making a non-stop noise.SPLA do not know what they want!!The CPA is not staggering, it is almost completely and fully implemplemented!

    Fundumentally only the referundum law is left!The law which was accepted by the vice-president of south Sudan and other negotiators from the SPLA.Machar declared in Juba airport in jubelation that he had defeated the NCP and came with the agreement of 51% out of 67%,which is very reasonable and very easy to achive.Not more than one week the non-noisy SPLA rejected the agreement!

    What else is left? The national security law,which should not be of concern to sombody who wants to seceed!This law hs been drafted by the SPLA(Machar admitted that),was rejected by the communist Jallabi of SPLA Yasir Arman, a new law was drafted jointly by the NCP/SPLA, again it was rejected by the communist group of Arman/Pagan!Well and good, tolerate the existing law,which you have been tolerating for almost five years , for only one year and then you can seced and make the best law in the world in your new Sudan.Mind you this law applies to the north as the the south has it’s, free and independent government, so why is the noise?

    Other laws like freedom of press, freedom of information,criminal law..etc should not be of concern to the SPLA .They are right now an independent state and within one year the are going to be tottaly separate state..so again why is the noise? or it is just a habit to blame the jalabba!!

    The noise always come from the SPLA,…they refused to conduct the census then accepted , they rejected the result(though the South was enumerated only by the SPLA,even northen supervisers were ordered to leave the South)then accepted the result; election law was rejeted untill the evening before it was presented to the parliment, next morning they voted in it’s support, same thing happened to the national security law!Your president asked you to vote for secession, next day he denied that!Yet we are making the noise!!!

    Southerners are ignoring the fact that RIGHT NOW THE SOUTH IS COMPLETELY, ABSOLUTELY AND FULLY INDEPENDENT STATE!!1WE ARE NOT INTERFERING with ANYTHING IN THE SOUTH, BUT WE ARE ALLOWING YOU TO INTERFER IN THE NORTH.YOU ARE RULING US BUT WE ARE NOT RULING YOU.YOU ARE PRESNT IN KHARTOUM TO RULE US EVEN AT THE LEVEL OF THE LOCAL GOVERNMENT, WE HAVE NO PRESENCE ,WHATSOEVER IN JUBA!

    It is so simple! JUST STOP RULING US NOW, DO NOT LISTEN TO OUR NOISE ,LEAVE US ALONE. YOU WANT TO HAVE YOUR OWN SEPARATE STATE , HAVE IT NOW WE ARE MORE THAN HAPPY FOR YOU.
    FINISHED, THE CPA IS COMPLETELY IMPLEMENTED!!!

    You mentioned that the south represent hope for the marginalized people; simple ,naive question, before going too far…Does the South represent any hope for Southerners? I will leave your honest answer for you!!

    People in the north are fed up!They are calling for a referendum in the north with a quorum of 90% and a majority of 75%. They will get!Enough is enough look for somebody else to blame!!

    Reply
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