Sudan’s local doomsday clock is set

by Steve Paterno

January 13, 2010 — This week, the most influential and famous scientists from the board of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists will move the Doomsday Clock few steps further from where it is currently set. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists created and maintained the Doomsday Clock since 1947. The symbolic clock, which analogizes humanity on the brink of extinction as the clock approaches midnight, was envisioned in a wake of development of atomic weapons, because such weapons threaten the annihilation of humankind off the face of the earth. Since then, the clock comes to represents the planet in perils, due to calamities that include climate change and technologies harmful to human existence.

As the world is bracing for the setting of the Doomsday Clock, Sudanese own local Doomsday Clock has already been ticking and at a very fast rate in reaching midnight. In Sudan’s South-North war, which lasted for the past two decades, more than two million people are estimated to be extincted, with millions more teetering on the verge of annihilation, because of still ongoing conflicts, famine, and diseases. In Darfur western region, hundreds of thousands are massacred and those who survived are driven off their habitat—increasing their risk of annihilation. In the other marginalized areas such as Eastern Sudan, the desolation and misery prevail, another symbols of doom. Therefore, the occurrences in Sudan can only raise the specter of catastrophic events about to happen—the doomsday of seismic climax.

Sudan, as a country, is sliding toward the path of dangerously violent splits. The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), which would have maintained peace between the South and North is in large measures, unimplemented, due in part to the intransigence of the National Congress Party (NCP), the ruling party in Khartoum. The partnership of the CPA signatories—between the NCP and Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) has long faded away. The SPLM relegated its role to only focus in securing the rights of self determination for the people of South Sudan—the cause in which they are trying to achieve at any cost, while the NCP is hell-bent to deny the South Sudanese that right. The two parties are currently locked on confrontation mode that many analysts fear may likely lead into the resumption of all out war. Both parties are suspected to be arming themselves to the teeth, with the latest weaponry system, procured for by flooding oil money.

South Sudan, which would have largely benefited from the peace dividend ushered in by the CPA, is experiencing upsurge in ethnic conflicts like never before, and the infrastructure development and progress in the region is moving at snail pace, despite huge potentials on availability of resources. The seemingly increasing ethnic violence in South Sudan, both in scale and degree, cast the future of that autonomous region into jeopardy. Exhibiting such characteristics, the major concern now is whether South Sudan will not immediately drift into a failed state in event that it choices to secede as an independent nation.

With the clock ticking very fast—approaching January 2011—a significant day for South Sudanese to vote for referendum—the stakes couldn’t be higher. There are already much talks from within the SPLM circles of leadership on an urgent need to preempt a Unilateral Declaration of Independence (UDI) for South Sudan, since the NCP is dragging on its feet in the course of implementing the benchmark provisions of the CPA necessary for the conduct of referendum.

President Salva Kiir of South Sudan who is also the chairman of SPLM has set the tone in preparations for the independence of South Sudan. He declared that the people of South Sudan will certainly not want to be second class in a united Sudan ruled from Khartoum. He has been busy making trips around the world to garner support and gain recognition for an independent South Sudan. In one of such trips in neighboring Uganda, President Kiir said, he “expects Uganda to take the lead in recognizing South Sudan as an independent country.” In a similar tour in Europe late last year, President Kiir urged the European countries for the same. President Kiir is sending his emissaries across the world to deliver similar message in supporting the independence of South Sudan.

The move for South Sudan for an independent state is of course a significant blow not just to the country, but particularly to the NCP. This to the NCP is tantamount to declaration of war. Ghazi Salah Al-Deen Al-Attabani, a leading NCP member is blunt about this by describing the recently agreed South Sudan referendum legislation as a “recipe for war.” With highly disputed boundaries between South and North Sudan, along with long history of hostilities, especially against the ruling clique in Khartoum, it is difficult to envision a peaceful divorce between the South and North of Sudan.

To prevent Sudan from imminent disaster, there is urgent need in resolving the outstanding CPA provisions. More importantly, the disputed boundaries between South and North of Sudan need to be resolved. There is a need to achieve a fair and equitable sharing, refinery, and transportation of oil, particularly the oil produced in the disputed regions. A meaningful peace must be achieved and maintained throughout the country to further avoid any escalations of violence. Otherwise, Sudan’s local doomsday clock is ticking toward midnight, and the country may just sink before the rest of the world is.

Steve Paterno is the author of The Rev. Fr. Saturnino Lohure, A Roman Catholic Priest Turned Rebel. He can be reached at [email protected]