Future of Sudan and South Sudan relations
By Joe de Tuombuk
March 25, 2013 – The recent developments in the implementation of Cooperation Agreement between Sudan and South Sudan are a cause for optimism that the two countries are beginning to realize that their futures are closely linked. If implemented in good faith, the Cooperation Agreement has the potentials to help the two countries develop trust and hopefully, become better neighbors. South Sudan in particular has learned from experience that any agreements it signs with Sudan should not to be considered ironclad. After all, Sudan has a penchant for signing something on paper, and trying to implement items from its own version of the same agreement. The experiences of the post-oil shutdown economy have shown that South Sudan is a very resilient nation. It has largely weathered the loss of 98% of its operating revenue without suffering a system collapse as was hoped for in Khartoum. In fact, strategists in Khartoum firmly believed that South Sudan will not last more than six months without oil. Lesson learned.
Moving forward, what are our expectations about the future of South Sudan-Sudan relations? A quick answer would be that there is high likelihood of conflict over Abyei and other disputed areas. However, a more optimistic answer would be that, as both countries begin to realize the economic benefits of cooperating with one another, issues that could potentially derail progress, will be dealt with in a more pragmatic way. In other words, both countries will work to diffuse tensions by solving Abyei issue in a way that serves the interest of the communities inhabiting the region. South Sudan would bring to bear its influence with former brothers in arm in South Kordofan and Blue Nile to the negotiation for a genuine political solution to the conflict. In case of latter scenario, we can expect to see a more mature and developed relations between the two countries if things work out with cooperation agreement.
The question in the minds of policy makers in Juba is whether they can trust Khartoum to continue on the path towards peaceful coexistence, or whether it would just renege on Cooperation Agreement and hope for a political collapse of the South’s ruling party. Lessons from past experiences with Khartoum would suggest that there are serious uncertainties with putting South’s eggs in Khartoum’s basket. South Sudan has learned the hard way that the idea of relying on Khartoum’s pipeline was a strategic mistake that must somehow be resolved. The answer lies in developing economic plans that can insulate South Sudan from the shocks emanating from Khartoum. However, undertaking such projects like building alternative pipelines is good from a political and economic perspective, but is difficult to implement realistically because it fails the test of cost-benefit analysis. Ideally, South Sudan would be better off cooperating with Sudan and developing together. However, the situation is far from ideal. This is the conundrum that our policy makers face.
Given the experiences South Sudan has with Sudan, there is a good chance that South Sudan will aggressively pursue a two-pronged economic strategy; where it continues to utilize the existing pipelines while developing alternative options of exporting its crude to the international market. South Sudan will probably do a cost-benefit analysis to see whether it would cost more over the next ten years to continue paying current transit fees agreed upon by both countries, or whether it makes economic and political sense to build an alternative pipeline. In probably 2015, we can expect South Sudan to have the resources to undertake a pipeline project that is independent of Khartoum’s control. If that happens, South Sudan will be in a better position to withstand any economic and political pressures impacting its relations with Khartoum. It would also force Khartoum to rethink its current pricing strategy for usage of its pipelines. More importantly, if Juba is able to rely less on Khartoum for economic development, it can approach Abyei issue from the position of strength. All these are serious reasons why we can expect South Sudan to have a workable Plan B.
Future relations are going to be influenced by political developments in both countries. South Sudan’s ruling party (SPLM) is in a better position because it faces no real organized opposition party. The NCP, however, is beset by a loosely affiliated but robust opposition that can make things difficult for the party. It is the developments in Khartoum that we should be more concerned about. Since president Bashir is not running in 2015, will there be a smooth selection of his replacement within the NCP? How will the other political parties coordinate their activities? Will the Islamist-oriented faction of the NCP collude with elements in the Sudan Armed Forces and carry out a coup? These are the questions facing the policy makers in Juba. If the hardliners win in any power struggle, this could negatively impact the future of relations between Sudan and South Sudan. If a more pragmatic faction prevails, then things will be more optimistic.
The future of relations between Sudan and South Sudan is occupying the minds of policy makers in both countries. Both countries have suffered economic difficulties due to lack of cooperation. However, there are indications that lessons have been learned. Khartoum in particular has learned that South Sudan is a resilient foe. It has defied all expectations that it was going to collapse after it shut down its oil production. South Sudan has also learned that the international community is strongly pushing for both countries to work together even if it means South being robbed of its oil as a result of exorbitant transit fees. Now that lessons have been learned, there is a great deal of hope that Cooperation Agreement will usher in a new chapter in relations. It’s a good agreement that can transform the relations from that of antagonism to that of pragmatic symbiotic development. There are still some unforeseen developments that could hamper relations, but both countries have reasons to be hopeful.
The author is a South Sudanese residing in the United States. He can be reached at [email protected].