How Darfur conflict can impact negatively regional stability
By Trayo Ahmed Ali
The geographical position of every country (or for that matter of a region) in the world map extremely matters in different ways. For the case of Darfur region it took more than ten years before the UN recently report to point out that the region could potentially turn into a “hub” for international extremist Islamist forces. This UN message is of many parts. One of the most relevant part of it is that, the already troubled region is of strategic “geo-political” dimension in terms of regional peace and security where as mushrooming Islamic fundamentalist elements are creeping to position themselves and use Darfur as a conduit route and breading ground to effect their malicious activities of regional instability.
Though it’s quite obvious that the World body’s report has came too late, not sufficiently self explanatory and has so far not received an earnest and deserve attention, its however my considered view that such a self confessed factual news report of the UN should not only be treated as a welcome conclusion to only vindicate earlier predictive analysis made by credible observers, but most importantly the message should be considered as a warning shot and / or wakeup call that warrants taking appropriate preemptive actions to curtail any further effect before it’s too late again.
The chemistry of conflict dynamics in Darfur is now vigorously fermenting to reach an explosive stage, with a frequency that could have potentially devastative impact. This is due to the new ingredients added to by region’s fast shifting political paradigms. From the perspective of regional and international security It would certainly be irresponsible position (and sometimes of questionable intentions) if such a visibly looming regional threat of sweeping effect is allowed passing without taking appropriate and due diligent measures to face it.
It can hardly escape from any comprehension the reality that if, Sudan occupies exceptionally important position in the Sub-region’s “geo-politics” and its stability or otherwise, Darfur could near occupying the position of an epicenter of such arrangement(s). This is by virtue of neighboring four countries out of the total seven surrounding Sudan. With Libya already being thrown into a chaotic situation under the captivity of Islamist militia, coupled with the fragile and unstable Republic of Central Africa, plus the “in-house” fighting in South Sudan, it would be naïve to think that the near blockaded Republic of Chad could remain to survive as an Isolated “peaceful Island” of “Shangrilla”.
With elements of destabilization (Islamic extremists) such as those of Al-Qaida from Algeria and Mali, , Ansar Alsharia of Libyan, Boko-Haram of Nigrtia, , SILICA from CAR, Egyptian Brotherhood and in addition to the LRA of Uganda are all busy and freely crisis-crossing via Darfur, using it vast and uncontrollable desert. Every piece of information already indicates of their presence in Darfur soil. It’s an ideal situation that nothing can stop the free flow of ISIS multi-national Jihadists into the region. That also surely incites the local elements. It’s a situation of adding more oil into the frying pan of Darfur.
With the current international and regional ambivalence position towards Sudan’s “opened secret” policy of harboring, hosting, training, arming, and providing save heaven to these elements, the NCP regime is surprisingly entertaining a kind of an impression that makes her believe that as if the has world is “nodding its head” in an apparent approval of her dirty role. Thus it kept taking everybody for granted as much as it continues without being questioned.
Also what is more worrying under this simmering “contusive environment” is the growing unhindered opportunities offered to the “Janjaweed” elements in Darfur to camouflage their identity, revamp their resources and scale up their atrocities for further abasements. This of course makes it Sudan government in another advantageous position.
It’s now squarely clear that the situation is by all accounts heading towards a second but more overwhelming and violent cycle of a full blown genocide. The difference this time around is that the genocide evolves to take regional character and dimension. As such the urgency of resolving Darfur conflict within the context of comprehensive national settlement should get more resolute attention.
It’s now crystal clear that every minute this region’s fragile situation continuous unguarded as it stands now, with its leaders remain inactive, the quicker these destabilizing forces take an unprecedented advantage, and the faster they step up their activities, and the closer they become to the driving seat to define the direction of events . Thus we are waiting fast gathering storms that could violently drift the entire region into an unconceivable and uncontrollable catastrophic chaos.
The compelling international responsibility now dictates upon the UNSC to break this “dead silence” position and move to take proactive decisions. Nothing justifies the African Union position too. It should take resolute action in response to this looming situation. The AU also needs to be empowered in a manner that can take its regional responsibilities that goes beyond lip service rhetoric.
But most importantly the countries of the region, particularly affected once such as Chad, CAR, Uganda, Nigeria and Egypt should recalculate their priorities and take necessary preemptive measures. It’s obviously that the situation now is of (either or). To put it bluntly it’s either (Sing together or Sink together) situation.
The resolution of Darfur conflict (as identified the master of all dangerous zone in the region) has become a matter of absolute priority. It’s an entry point to the pacification of the entire region. It by no means defuses the looming regional tension, drain the sources, prevents extremist Islamic elements from accessing breading ground and put into an end the decade long humanitarian suffering in the region.
The author is a leading member of the Sudan Liberation Movement – Minni Minnawi. He is also the humanitarian secretary of the rebel alliance Sudanese Revolutionary Front. He is reachable at : [email protected]