IGAD plus, SPLM-FD and prospects for peace in South Sudan

By Luka Biong Deng

With repetitive disappointing deadlines for peace in South Sudan, the peace talks have been on halt since March 2015 while IGAD tried to review and redesign its mediation efforts. Since the collapse of peace talks in March 2015 and with no new date for the resumption of peace talks, the warring parties opted to escalate fighting with flagrant violation of the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement. This insecurity situation has been exacerbated further by the emergence of other armed groups in relatively stable states. The intensification of fighting since March 2015 has caused enormous human suffering and serious violation of human rights.

Apparently, such violations have been paradoxically committed in presence of IGAD and UNMISS operating under Chapter VII mandate of protecting civilians. Also these violations have been committed despite repetitive threats by IGAD and UN Security Council of imposing sanctions on those violating the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement or obstructing the peace talks. This inability of international and regional organizations to protect human lives raises fundamental question about their efficacy and effectiveness in ensuring human security in the world.

With the resumption of peace talks in Ethiopia under a new mediation that involves IGAD plus South Africa, Nigeria, Rwanda, Chad and Algeria, the IGAD has recognized its failure in providing a credible mediation as some of its members have become directly or indirectly involved in the current conflict in South Sudan. This new mediation will not only bring the much-needed credibility into the process but it will also involve all the regions of the continent into the mediation. It remains to be seen how the new members of the mediation would position themselves and to provide a new momentum and leadership to the mediation rather than becoming a microcosm platform of AU regional politics and rivalry.

Despite such delay in the resumption of peace talks, there is a glimpse of hope that peace may be within the reach with new mediation. The spokesperson of the government to the peace talks has been repetitively stating “peace is around the corner”. He paradoxically made such statements after every failed round of peace talks. As such his statement has become synonymous with “peace is out of reach”.

Despite the challenges that may face IGAD plus-led peace mediation, there are good reasons for optimism that peace might be around the corner. The increased fighting between the warring parties since the failure of peace talks in March 2015 has proven beyond any doubt that no party will neither win this war nor defeating the other party. The looming famine and increased food insecurity and coupled with the alarming economic crisis facing South Sudan may convince the warring parties that the path of war is not sustainable.

The recent diplomatic efforts by South Africa, Ethiopia, Kenya and Tanzania to resurrect and revive the implementation of the Arusha Agreement will contribute positively to the IGAD plus-led peace mediation. It is for the first time that all members of IGAD have seen the synergy between Arusha and IGAD processes. President of Kenya made it clear after the recent meeting of IGAD in Nairobi that the IGAD and Arusha processes would be merged. This is not surprising as the coming in of South Africa, as the main political power behind Arusha Agreement, to IGAD made it possible for IGAD to see the complementarity between IGAD and Arusha processes.

Interestingly, Ethiopia is now in full support of Arusha Agreement despite its initial lukewarm stance not against the process per se but largely because it was not engaged in the process that was first initiated by Ethiopia. In fact Ethiopia through its special envoy to IGAD initiated the two-track approach of peace talks; IGAD peace talks to address national crisis and SPLM reconciliation talks to address the crisis within the SPLM as the ruling party. The expected summit of IGAD plus scheduled to take place in Juba on 25th June 2015 will provide a new momentum to the peace talks. Although all members of IGAD will be receptive to the merging of the two processes, Sudan will be exceptionally unhappy with this move, as its political interest has always been to see a weaker SPLM and South Sudan and total isolation of the SPLM-FD.

With the new mediation that recognizes the complementarity between Arusha and Addis processes, some members of Troika (UK, Norway and UK) may need to revisit their lukewarm position towards Arusha Agreement, particularly as they will become part of the new mediation. It would extremely be important if Troika could help the SPLM to put its house in order and to assist in the full implementation of Arusha Agreement. Undoubtedly, the coming in of China to be part of the new mediation will provide as well the much-needed role of China as it has strategic economic interest in South Sudan.

The heroic and strategic visit by the advanced team of SPLM-FD has created real opportunity for peace in South Sudan. This visit happened under serious challenges as some created illusion that Juba is not safe and others, particularly some members of SPLM leadership in Juba, were resisting such visit as they believed SPLM-FD have hidden agenda. Also some members in the government felt such visit as the beginning of losing their positions in the government.

Importantly, the visit became successful because of the leadership provided by the Chairman of SPLM, President Salva Kiir. Despite the apparent resistance to the visit by some members of SPLM leadership in Juba, President Salva took bold and strategic decision to allow visit to take place. This political will shown by President Salva to reunite SPLM reminds me of the commitment he showed during South-South dialogue and Juba Declaration that marked the beginning of the unity of people of South Sudan. With his decision to revoke earlier decisions related to dismissal of some members of SPLM from their political positions, President Salva has shown his genuine commitment to the implementation of Arusha Agreement and reunification of the SPLM.

Although some people argue that SPLM-FD do not have political weight, some members of this group are not only the founding members of the SPLM/A but contributed with distinction in the liberation struggle that resulted in the independence of South Sudan. Equally, some members of SPLM-FD have played a critical role in the reunification of SPLM/A during political upheavals and split experienced by the SPLM/A during liberation struggle. Equally, the decision by SPLM-FD not to involve in war has put them on higher moral ground to become unifying factor and a bridge between the SPLM warring parties. With their visit to Juba and their expected visit to SPLM-IO, the SPLM-FD will certainly contribute not only to building trust but also to narrowing the differences between the warring parties on the outstanding issues in peace talks. This strategic mission of the SPLM-FD is a homegrown peace process and it would be more effective if they could involve the church leaders who command overwhelming respect of people of South Sudan.

With the new mediation, the expected role to be played by the SPLM-FD and possibly the church leaders, the positive welcoming by SPLM-IO to the visit of SPLM-FD to Juba, and the political will shown by SPLM Chairman to reunify the SPLM, one may say that peace is indeed around the corner. I hope my statement will not have the same fate of that of the government spokesperson to the peace talks.

The author is the Director of the Centre for Peace and Development Studies, University of Juba, Global Fellow at the Peace Research Institute Oslo and Associate Fellow at the Carr Centre for Human Rights Policy at Harvard Kennedy School. He is reachable at [email protected] or [email protected]