Give South Sudan peace process to United Nations

Either warring parties must all accept the IGAD Proposal or the only resort is to directly surrender file to the United Nations (UN) for Realistic, Effective and Credible process

By Keluel Agook

Where are we from here fellow South Sudanese? A sole-searching question among other million voices demanding peace in the country. One can’t restrain deep regret after the collapse of the peace talks as warring parties rejected the IGAD’s bridging proposal while millions South Sudanese sought refuge in the numbering countries, thousands displaced and others are fleeing the country every hour. Among whom thousands of innocent women and girls suffered sexual violence and, living with epidemic diseases in camps, taking their life every minute of the hour, whereas millions are food insecure, maximum school dropout of young boys and girls and the economic shock that rocked the country since the start of the war, alas the IGAD is still entertaining the parties to the agreement at the expense of innocent South Sudanese.

The author will tersely elaborate on sexual violence against women, economic crisis, humanitarian catastrophe, lack of peace in the country and lack of justice for war victims while highlighting gaps contributed by the agreement 2015 before focusing on subject matter elaborately as per the question above. First, the Sexual violence has been passionately and deliberately practice by warring parties as a weapon of war to demoralize one another. Although Sexual Violence is an illegal and brutal harm against women in the society, its effects are quite diverse and ruthless at nature. Medical reports revealed that sexual violence causes Sexual transmitted diseases like HIV/AIDs against women. It always leave women weak in terms of health and physical fitness. The women subjected to rape have difficulty in conceiving child due to sexual assault. It put women under consistent trauma, deprive them of freedom at homes, they turn being disturbed emotionally in thinking about one thing; the rape and that may lead to consistence stress that may also cause madness. Today its effects are visibly and lively experienced by women in our society as per many Domestic, Regional and International reports on its fatigue.

The South Sudan Human Rights Commission Annual Report 2017 recommended the SPLA and the Judiciary to institute special courts to try and expedite cases of rape and all forms of Sexual violence in the Country. The report spelt out vividly the widespread, mass gang rape of women and girls since 2013, 2016 and 2017 in conflict-affected areas. UN also catalogue more cases of rape in Juba, 2017.

National, Regional and International laws, covered Sexual violence in the country. The South Sudan Constitution 2011 amended 2015; the Agreement on Resolution of Conflict in South Sudan (ARCSS) 2015; the Cessation of hostilities agreements 2017 article 2.5; the SPLA Act2009 prohibited rape against women. The Penal CodeAct2008 Section 247 Rape leads to imprisonment for a term not exceeding 14years; the Joint Communiqué of the Republic of South Sudan and the United Nations on addressing SGBV against women on 6 October 2014 during the visit of the Special Representative of the UN Secretary General to Juba within the framework of United Nations Security Council Resolutions 1820(2008), 1888(2009), 1960(2010), 2106(2013) on SGBV; the ICGLR Protocol on prevention and suppression of SGBV against women and Children (2006); the UN General Assembly Resolution 65/69/1984 on security sector reform and community security and arms control response to threats faced by women and, the Convention on elimination of all forms of Discrimination against women (CEDAW) 1979 which South Sudan ratified in 2014, yet no significance change thereto. So, if there was sustainable peace major improvement on all forms of sexual violence would have been achieved and its current widespread would be maintained.

Second, the Economic crisis in the country continued distasting at the highest degree since the beginning of the violence, 2013 until today, though the earlier 2012 oil shutdown made a way to disaster. Hence, most factors that contributed to such a fall include the current war which has scared all the international investors to move out of the country; an creased corruption in institutions which evidence are misuse of letters of credit, medical approvals; the Central Bank’s weak implementation of monetary policies ‘led to impropriate management of the official interest rate; inflation and foreign exchange rate, control of currency circulation (lack of proper internal and external currency regulation), proper loans giving, ideal keeping of gold or hard currency reserves and supervision of the banking industry’. All these led to hyperinflation rate, huge national budget deficit, deplete of hard currency reserves in the bank. Currently, our banking system remains one of the poorest unregulated in the world due to lack of financial management system to enhance sound monetary policies that could have promoted economic growth. Ideally, Central Bank always provides job Opportunities to the citizens through its Policy instruments such as “interest rates” (microfinance promotion) that “creates employment” (John Maynard Keynes 1936), Open market operations, Capital requirements and reserves capital which could easily, professionally and effectively be used to improve and boost economy of South Sudan. “Wages of the working class are determined at the subsistence level of living” (Karl Marx 1867). Now working class bear the consequence of Government low salary which can’t even guarantee a day meal due to sky-rocketing prices in the markets. Lack of proper fiscal budget plan and national resources management. Although the ARCSS, 2015 explained clearly economic reforms and management of resource then lack of implementation restrained the change needed thereby. The ministry of finance currently holds the responsibility of keeping currency reserves and fiscal responsibilities which have complicated everything in the country. Now there a huge difficulty in national budget planning yearly which includes the usual budget indiscipline, insufficient resource pool, deficit financing and grants to the country’s annual budget. Surely the Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning solely deserves blame on yearly impropriate allocation of the national budget.

Third, the IGAD proposal should have focused on humanitarian to resurrect institutions and mechanisms provided for, by the agreement such as Reparation and Compensation Authority, Special and Reconstruction fund commission that were unimplemented, these importance institutions should have addressed the humanitarian catastrophic. Lack of enough shelters, insufficient food, hygiene and sanitation. To resettle the IDPs and refugees need more resources and adequate time to programming. Given the inability by the current Government to initiate repatriation of the Refugees and IDPs to their respective areas and provide them with enough assistance that can sustain their life within the 30months period that was provided in the agreement continued to increase devastation. The ACRSS, 2015 articles (1.1.1, 1.1.2, 1.1.3) provided right of refugees and Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) to return in safety and dignity and to be accorded with physical, legal and psychological protection; rights of returnees in accordance with the Transitional Constitution (TCRSS); assistance in the re-unification of family members who were separated during the conflict and exercise right of refugees and IDPs to return to their places of origin with safety and dignity. So, Humanitarian should have been the primary focus but the TGoNU has never done anything in part. The 30months transitional period was made to achieve nothing and increased violence to produce more refugees and IDPs within the country and abroad as people now continued the intense suffering.

Fourth, lack of peace in the country scored major challenges to the country’s stability and compromised its sovereignty. Why peace in South Sudan? Simply, the people of South Sudan suffered a lot throughout the history of creation and they need freedom of movement, Freedom of expression, peace of mind and better life. For the last fifty years South Sudanese had never experienced peace to focus on their own individual future well. It was only around 2005 up to 2011 and the war of hatreds and physical one emerged seriously and continuously. For how long should we continue war against one another and remain hostages of war? Is war only our future? We need to think smart right away and change our attitudes better. Now many people around the world thought that South Sudanese are warmongers and that is who they are. We must work to change the impression. We are now isolated by even our immediate friends who strongly stood with us during the struggle for freedom, Countries like Israel, Norway, America and their allies are frustrated due to the fact of fighting against one another and causing unnecessary suffering that can’t be manage reverse within shortest time possible. I remembered around 1997, 1998 up to 2002 the SPLA intensified the war with enormous assault against the enemy through the support from the American, Israel and Norwegian people. It is unforgettable friendship. I was born in the bush, grew up in the bush and remain a sole living witness to who we were and who were our real friends during bad times. Now, we must be careful on grabbing run-away friends otherwise our future will be in doom. The lack of peace in our country made our children and women suffered in refugee’s camps. Hunger has rocked the country and many people are dying on daily basis. With widespread insecurity that has restrained people of having freedom to go for cultivation on their farms. The death remains the only order of the day and it is our making. Now, we even tried to blame the IGAD and others but they are not the problem but we South Sudanese and leaders are problem to ourselves. The author also remains a victim of this war. We need to stop the war against each other by all means.

Fifth, the IGAD proposal should now focus seriously on establishment of transitional justice mechanisms the hybrid courts, truth and reconciliation commission provided for, in chapter V of the agreement 2015 which should have addressed war crimes and crimes against humanity. The warring parties and other partners failed to initiate the establishment process until the end of the TGoNU period while leaving more victims of war wondering with their abused life. The UN and African Union chatters talked about the right to justice inclusively and therefore, no way should other human beings be left injustice of others’ making in the country. The South Sudan Human Rights Commission Annual Report 2017 revealed cases of war crimes and crimes against humanity committed within Juba and other conflict-affected areas since 2013, 2016 and 2017. So, the delayed establishment of the transitional justice system (hybrid courts) amounts to justice denied for the victims. Truth and reconciliation commission should have been established 6 months prior to the signing of the agreement 2015 but parties and other stakeholders could not focus much on the establishment due to resource constrained or other reasons which the author felt of knowledge but the current IGAD’s proposal should abundantly focus on the reconciliation process. Honestly, the recurrence of war happens due to lack of true reconciliation among the leaders and the people of South Sudan in general. Lack of proper mechanisms delayed reconciliation and increased further issues of ethnic hatreds and wars in the country. The IGAD’s bridging proposal should focus on practical reconciliation of the leaders themselves because the war emanated amongst before having the comprehensive one to the people of South Sudan.

A break of long silence after I miserably shed tears during the signing of the violated peace (ARCSS) in the Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, August 17, 2015 which I could not sleep until the daylight I never again talked public or wrote an article about the IGAD faults in handling peace file until the timely piece thereby. By that time I was asked by the members of the South Sudan Civil Society Alliance to draft the petition to the IGAD mediators when they shadily and immensely mobilized stakeholders to urgently sign the deal. The petition was an attempt to advise the IGAD to conceal signing process and strategize for a credible deal before parties consent to it such as to avoid the potential war that may happen afterward. In that petition, we stated evidently that the strong intention by the IGAD mediators to making Juba a war field is unacceptable and must be stopped by all means by engaging the parties to immediately renegotiate the agreement afresh in a good faith without any further step to attempt implementation but the mediators could not listen. Our most worries were issues of two armies in one nation and timeframe for the implementation. In fact on July 7-8, 2016 the country witnessed most brutal, inhuman and worse ever battle (“Fire and furry”) at J1 (Juba1) at times all stakeholders were in Juba trying to mess around with the implementation processes. The extreme ever battle in the modern world history after the French 1779.

The author observations on the IGAD and its offspring JMEC over the last two and half years planned implementation process as appeared in the timeframe 2015 – 2018. Let’s begin with JMEC, it was the first institution established among others after the agreement coming into force the intention was to ensure quick coordination and erection of its other subordinates. Although it had challenges of funding, it was for short period of time and thereafter, peace partners came in with support. First, the JMEC began messing up with rule of procedure regulating the nomination of the representatives of other constituted institutions to itself and other commissions and committees beginning with the South Sudan political parties. The issue of the political party’s representation took almost all years of the interim period just to accept their representatives recently, second the issue of youth, third the women bloc and the issue of the South Sudan Civil Society Alliance which is now a problem. The leadership of the Alliance impeached the chairperson Mr. Akuoch Ajang since 5th May 2017 and the JMEC was served with subsequent notifications several time and could not replace the former chair. Now they are still inviting him to represent the Civil Society Alliance illegitimately on the IGAD- led High Level Revitalization Forum in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. An issue that has now caused a huge damage to the organization’s credibility nationally and internationally. The decision of the Alliance Board members is final and binding in accordance with their constitution. Many international and national media houses reported the event but the IGAD could not respect the Alliance’s administrative institutional right. The only problem is that the JMEC lacks competent legal advisors who can iron out issues quickly and timely resolved. It was upon the mercy of South Sudanese institutions otherwise the JMEC should have been sued several times on the cases of interference with affairs of other legal institutions. The agreement 2015, spelled out clearly the rule of procedure that any institution has a right to nominate and submit its nominee to JMEC and other institutions under it and has a right to replace its representative any time possible. Now, no basis which the JMEC and IGAD interfere with issues. Second, the major violations of the agreement; the creation of 32 states by the Government in 2015 and the war of J1 2016 caused by the SPLA-IO happened due to weakness of the JMEC and IGAD. The JMEC with the IGAD are like the son like the father. They could not face the parties with strong position. The Chair of the JMEC himself said “that the issue of 32 states would be resolved administratively by the parties. The JMEC did not even talk about the J1 incident at the first place but when the remaining members of the SPLM/A-IO were preparing to take over the vacant positions the JMEC said that there is a good progress but just the peace agreement was wounded despite its attempts to misleading the IGAD to mobilize the African Union and United Nations to opt for military intervention on South Sudan just few days after the event without any further comprehensive assessment into the war. A decision that was not spelled out in the agreement. If it wasn’t a wisdom of the UN and subsequent pressure from the South Sudan Civil Society Alliance amounted on the International Community to act wisely or else different stories would be prevailing currently. It was on 3rd September 2016 the South Sudan Civil Society Alliance leadership which the author was a part met the 15 members of the UN Security Council led by H.E. Amb. Samantha Power that visited Juba. We advised the members to promote continued dialogue among the parties to reach peaceful settlement of conflicts and not military intervention option and should intervention happen we the citizens would continue suffering. Third, the delayed release of reports on violations of the agreement. Other issues would have been resolved but sometimes the CTSAMM may get reports ready-made but the JMEC could not convene the meeting or authorize the release of the report timely. This delayed led to irresolution of conflicting issues in the implementation for the last all years of the interim period. So, the JMEC has been sole problem to violations of the Agreement on Resolution in the Republic of South Sudan. The mistakes committed by the IGAD were of the JMEC’s making. Therefore, conclusion in part the JMEC is paralyzed and need to be totally dissolved and the oversight or observatory role should be given to different institution. It has been busy assuming issues far away from its mandate, leaving its own responsibilities. The violations of the agreement happened due to lack of clear direction in terms of evaluation and monitoring of the implementation process by the JMEC.

Now, the IGAD mediators don’t learn from their mistakes. The IGAD has not historically made any successful agreements. The CPA scored a lot of issues during its implementation in the then Sudan. They always struggle to push for the signing of an agreement by the parties and leave it at the hands of parties without their own effective role of oversight. Historical evidence was the CPA but thank God the UN had intervened and supervised the implementation processes until little was achieved in South Sudan, leaving the issue of Abyei to battle with ICC in Hague while that of the Nubba Mountains disappeared completely. The current IGAD lacks strong personalities and leaders like Meles Zenewe the former Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Mwai Kibaki the former President of Kenya and General Lazorous Sombeyo the former CPA Chief Mediator. These were strong leaders with independent minds and of strong decisions. They made a decision and others had to follow and that is why little was achieved on the CPA.

At least the 2018 IGAD HLRF process began very well but of course, few mistakes were also underscored by the IGAD. First is that pre-mediation arrangements in which the faith based groups were tasked to bring together the warring parties was not contextual. The IGAD should have unveiled its proposal to the parties and other stakeholders then the faith groups come in to talk to the parties after having knowledge capacity of the Government and Opposition percentages thereto, such that to be able to convince the parties based on the objective realities.

The author analysis is that there is a major change by the IGAD in 2018 started from their High Level Revitalization Forum consultation processes which were transparent and effective and even the last rejected proposal by the parties was credibly framed based on some facts and reasons on the ground. What was lacking from the IGAD is that immediately after the parties rejected the bridging proposal, they should have just convened their meeting and pass the proposal at the IGAD’s leadership level and call the parties to immediately sign it. The only gap was that other stakeholders to the agreement should have rallied behind the IGAD in support of the proposal but author regretted the overwhelmed conflict of interest among the civil society representatives participating on talks in Addis this time has also had bad impact from there otherwise they should have stood behind the IGAD in support of the bridging proposal and the parties could have come together. Truly the IGAD mediation team is more organized than other stakeholders this time around.

Honestly, the IGAD bridging proposal is credible and equally a living benchmark to all the warring parties. The agreement gave a win-win situation to both warring parties as the armed oppositions get 45% and 55% for the incumbent transitional Government of the power-sharing. What else is a point of rejection here? This is even beyond revitalization of the agreement.

Sincerely, this agreement is good with the armed oppositions (rebels). No any Government on the earth that accepts an equivalent per cent to be given to rebels otherwise the Government must be looking for peace while rebels need war. Even the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) 2005, the rebels (SPLM) had 30% while the Government (NCP) with 40% and other percentages to other political parties. When realistically examine their (rebels) territorial presence in the country they would not even reach extend that they claimed. Some of them are briefcase parties sincerely facts must be revealed.

The wise decision is, if the warring parties refuse to sign the IGAD’s bridging proposal then it should be directly given to the United Nations for the realistic, effective and credible process.

Given the fact that all the IGAD member states got their multiple interests in South Sudan which encourages a conflict of interest among these states. The IGAD and East African regions are already war zones and no longer worthy of hosting viable peace process.

No patient takes care of another patient. The Ethiopia which is the host of talks has its own issue of Oromo conflict, Kenya with its Raila issue, 2017 national elections rigging (allegations), Egypt has its issue of the Muslim Brotherhood terrorism, Uganda with historical Lord Resistance insurgency and Sudan with an identical problem of Darfur conflict like one of the South Sudan now. Where do we go from here? Hence, either warring parties must all accept the IGAD Proposal or the only resort is to directly surrender file to the United Nations (UN) for Realistic, Effective and Credible process.

The author is concerned with the serious dilemma of many South Sudanese’s opinions that if the IGAD surrenders HLRF process, then it should be taken over by the African Union. So, any attempt to do so would be from worse to disaster. I myself don’t agree with the principle of a subsidiary of the African Union Charter. The same groups meddling in the affairs of the IGAD and region have a huge influence in the AU and they would also influence and automatically affect the AU led process, hence leads to total failure.

South Sudan is a member state number 193rd of the United Nations (UN) and has all rights and responsibilities its should fulfil as vividly spelt in the Charter. The UN can take the file and while TROIKA countries are tasked with oversight role and totally dissolved the paralyzed JMEC.

The upcoming Government should only constitute a lean one such as President, two (2) Vice Presidents and twenty-one (21) Ministerial positions. The Governance Cluster(9) with Ministry of Cabinet Affairs; Ministry of Foreign, International Cooperation and East Africa Affairs; Ministry of Defence and Veterans’ Affairs; Ministry of National Security Intelligence; Minister in the Office of the President (Chief Administrator instead), Ministry of Interior; Ministry of Justice and Constitutional Affairs; Ministry of Wildlife Conservation and Tourism; Ministry of Information, Telecommunication and Postal Service, Ministry of Youth, Culture and Sports. Economic Cluster (5): Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning; Ministry of Commerce trade and Industry; Ministry of Petroleum and Mining; Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security; Ministry of Animal, Livestock and Fisheries. Human Development and Social service Cluster (4): Ministry of Higher, Science and Technology; Ministry of General Education; Ministry of Gender and Social Welfare; Ministry of Labour and Public Service. Infrastructure Cluster, four (3): Ministry of Transport, Roads and Bridges; Ministry of Land, Housing and Energy; Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation.

Obviously, the underlying reason is that it should be a Lean Government to allow services go to the development sector, encourages Basic service delivery, and avoids duplication of the roles, responsibilities of the institutions and avoid Confusion in naming institutions.

Since, the warring parties whether within or outside the Government and country they are one group, same people and are all liked-minded. They are only after power-sharing (sharing of positions). The only solution to them is a consistent pressure to change their attitudes against one another and come together for peace. The paradox of power sharing should stop, it has become monotonous and has been negative and extremely promoted war wider. The procedures such as Selection of Ministers and Deputy Ministers should equally be made as When the Incumbent TGoNU nominates any Ministerial Portfolio then any of the parties (armed opposition, etc.) shall definitely nominate the deputy Minister to such Ministerial Portfolio from any of the sectoral cluster and when other parties nominate a Ministerial Portfolio then the Incumbent TGONU shall nominate the Deputy to such ministry thereto and continued as such. The Transitional National Legislature; Council of States and National Assembly should have only 228 members that should pass the permanent constitution as part of the robust effect towards implementation and promotion of rule of law. Mathematically, each state with 7 members times thirty two states plus 4 members of Abyei administrative equal to 228 which is (7X32 +4=228).

Transitional Institutions and Mechanisms which are not limited to Anti-Corruption Commission (ACC); Public Grievances Chamber (PGC); Fiscal, Financial Allocation and Monitoring Commission (FFAMC); National Audit Chamber (AC); Humanitarian Relief and Rehabilitation Commission (RRC) Peace Commission (PC); National Bureau of Statistics (NBS); Human Rights Commission (HRC); Judicial Service Commission (JSC); Civil Service Commission (CSC); Land Commission (LC); Electricity Corporation (EC); Refugees Commission (RC); South Sudan Broadcasting Corporation (SSBC); National Petroleum and Gas Commission (NPGC); National Bureau of Standards (NBS); Urban Water Corporation (UWC); Roads Authority which were agreed for reforms should be prioritized to ensure effective service delivery to the people and broader improvement on the rule of law and democracy in the country.

On the security arrangements, there should be one army under one command and ensure effective reforms through conventional mechanisms such as screening, professional training, Demobilization, Disarmament and Reintegration Programmes (DDR) and effect the already established pension fund commission to ensure dignified retirement to the veterans soldiers. Other soldiers now join the war due to hopelessness of retiring at the graveyards while having children to care for and their enormous energy is exhausted in the national service.

The author is of view that next interim period should be 3 years exactly since the country bears the huge burden of the resettlement of the IDPs and refugees, it need enough time to allow adequate preparations.

The author cautions both parties the Government Delegation for the HLRF to be careful not to mislead the President this time around to avoid the recurrent of more reservations and direct violations of the agreement like 2015 – 2016. The head of the state required maximum wise guidance in order not to make more mistakes for consequences of the state affect every citizen. The armed oppositions must equally be careful with more interests, violations and behaviour against the agreement and conform to principles agreed otherwise consequence would be more serious on them and the citizens entirely. I thought warring parties should have learned from the historical lessons. In time of peace the language much change automatically to speak in language of peace to promote peace and harmony amongst to enhance cooperation to allow a smooth implementation of the agreement.

On the security arrangements perspective, the wise decision would be good when the armed opposition leaders should surrender their protection into hands of the current President Salva Kiir like what the former First vice Dr John Garang did with President el Bashir during the time of the CPA implementation in the then united Sudan. Dr John was protected by the same presidential guards that protect president Bashir. This will avoid the disastrous mindset notion of two armies and the third party protection among others. It will also create trust and confidence between and among the leaders to avoid the fear of insecurity. The next proposal should address the ownership of the agreement. The 2015 deal was totally disowned by the warring parties. This time there is a need for trust building among the warring parties later to own the agreement themselves before going out for a wider dissemination to the people at the grassroots.

The conclusion in general, the IGAD should be abandoned. The UN must take the lead and the TROIKA takes up the role of oversight or monitoring and evaluation of the implementation of the Agreement and totally dissolved the Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (JMEC).

The author is theSecretary-Generall of the South Sudan Civil Society Alliance, member of South Sudan Human rights forum, member of Assembly of the Great Lakes Civil Society Regional Forum (ICGLR), Member of Youth United Against Tribalism Organization, participated in the 2015 peace talks as CSOs Lobbyist in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia and acquired enormous experiences in the field of civil society since 2009 until present. Can be reached via email: [email protected]