Peace in Sudan a trade boom for neighbouring countries, notably Kenya
NAIROBI, Jan 7 (AFP) — The long-awaited signing this weekend of a peace deal between Khartoum and the main rebels to end fighting in oil-rich southern Sudan, will create massive opportunities for neighboring countries through increased trade and transportation of the black gold, experts say.
The south, landlocked and politically reluctant to use the northern Port Sudan, will look across its borders for international trade, they add.
“We will see several traders rushing to southern Sudan to invest there, given that the area is virtually unexploited and there is a vast market,” Kenyan economist Robert Shaw told AFP in an interview in Nairobi where the peace deal will be signed on Sunday.
“Southern Sudan is a blessing for traders because the economy there will start from scratch as a result of 21 years of war,” he added.
“Southern Sudan has numerous trade opportunities for the region as a whole, and particularly Kenya,” Shaw insisted.
“Kenya has a bigger edge because there is fighting in northern Uganda (bordering south Sudan), so many foreign investors would prefer to pass their goods through Kenya,” said Samuel Nyandemo, a development economist at University of Nairobi.
“The Kenyan economy is set to gain millions of dollars in the first years of reconstruction of southern Sudan,” he added.
“Sudan being a member of COMESA (Common Market for East and Central Africa), Kenya will export most of its goods to southern Sudan,” he stressed.
Evoking southern Sudan in his New Year speech, Kenyan President Mwai Kibaki said: “We are going to build roads and railway lines to that country.”
Last September, Kenya and the southern rebel Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A) agreed on the construction of the first, 1,182-kilometre (735-mile), railway link between Juba in southern Sudan and Kenya’s port of Mombasa with work to begin in July at an initial cost of 3.2 billion euros.
“First and foremost, southern Sudan is landlocked. This railway line will be used to link us to the outside world. It will also be like our import-export main route,” SPLM/A Commissioner for International Cooperation and Development Costello Garang Ring told AFP.
“We also expect to use the rail to transport about 70,000 oil barrels a day to Kenya and other varieties of consumer goods as well,” he added.
Kenyan officials said the government and SPLM/A have also been discussing plans to construct a pipeline from southern Sudan to Mombasa.
“The port of Mombasa is more advanced than Port Sudan (on the Red Sea), which the (Khartoum) government is currently using. When oil starts flowing to Mombasa, Kenya will get good cash,” Shaw added.
Sudan currently produces about 350,000 barrels of oil a day, most of which is extracted from wells in southern Sudan and exported through Port Sudan.
The country has oil reserves of some two billions barrels, according to experts.
“Our industrial products will get a bigger market because this area will just be emerging from a long war, so they have to depend on neighbours for a number of industrial goods,” said Ugandan Junior Trade minister Richard Nduhura.
“With a peaceful southern Sudan, we expect big trade across the border,” Boniface Rodrigo, a Ugandan long-haul transporter, confirmed in Kampala.
Southern Sudan, a 850,000-square-kilometre (333,000-square-mile) area, will also offer new opportunities in timber, which will be required for the construction of buildings once people start settling, a UN official said.
War erupted in southern Sudan in 1983, when the rebels rose up against Khartoum, denouncing Arab and Muslim domination on the black, animist and Christian south. The conflict has claimed at least 1.5 million lives and displaced four million people.