FEATURE-Fragile peace in Sudan despite southern agreement

NAIROBI, Jan 18, 2005 (IRIN) — The recent signing of a comprehensive peace agreement between the Sudanese government and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A) has raised hopes that war in the south could end soon, but prospects for lasting peace across the country remain fragile, analysts said.

Members of the New Sudan Police practice a drill , Tuesday, Jan. 18, 2005 in Rumbek in southern Sudan. (AP).

“The peace agreement is an important step,” according to Peter Takirambudde, executive director of Human Rights Watch’s Africa division. “But lasting peace in Sudan will require genuine security for civilians and justice for the atrocities committed both in Darfur and southern
Sudan.”

John Prendergast of the International Crisis Group (ICG) noted that “the
[Sudanese] government’s objective is to maintain power”.

“Supporters of the peace deal need to understand that it pursues
contradictory approaches with different opposition elements in different
regions to confuse outsiders and defuse criticism,” he told IRIN.

“It is concluding peace with the SPLM/A while attacking in Darfur and
leaving the armed groups from eastern Sudan out of the Cairo talks,”
Prendergast added.

The peace agreement was signed in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, on 9
January after lengthy talks. It promises to end the 21-year civil war that
has claimed more than one and a half million lives, and virtually
destroyed southern Sudan.

Beyond addressing the southern conflict, the agreement is also being
presented as a blue print for addressing conflicts in other strife-torn
areas across Sudan.

It is premised on a vision of promoting stability, rehabilitation, and
development in all regions of Sudan through power sharing and the
equitable distribution of the country’s wealth.

Observers, however, say many potential stumbling blocks remain.

“A major cause of the conflicts which have shattered the lives of so many
Sudanese has been injustice and marginalisation,” Kolawole Olaniyan,
Amnesty International’s Africa Programme director, said in a statement.
“Unless these basic human rights concerns are seriously addressed it will
be difficult to have a lasting peace.”

Upper Nile Vulnerable

Prendergast said he expected that the oil-rich Upper Nile would be the
most vulnerable area during the implementation period of the peace accord
in the south.

During the past year, shifting allegiances among southern Sudanese
militias have led to direct clashes over territorial control between the
Sudanese army and government-backed Nuer and Shilluk militias on the one
hand, and the SPLM/A on the other hand in the Shilluk Kingdom in Upper
Nile.

This has led to widespread looting and the displacement of tens of
thousands of people.

“The jockeying for control and commercial contracts in the oil-fields, and
the ruling party’s desire to retain the militias for future use, will
ensure that the Upper Nile region will not be stabilized any time soon,”
Prendergast told IRIN on 12 January.
Until November 2004, there was heavy deployment of government-allied
militia and supply of weapons, distributed to areas within the Upper Nile
region, according to sources.

“It makes no sense for parties preparing for peace to mobilise such a
military arsenal,” a humanitarian source in the region observed.

Another problem is that the security arrangements agreed upon under the
comprehensive peace agreement remain unclear regarding the status of the
militia, which are grouped under the umbrella of the South Sudan Defence
Forces (SSDF).

Observers say it was not likely that the government could completely
absorb them into its regular army. Neither would the militia be willing to
go up north during the transitional period.

“They are southerners and most likely will remain in the south, but their
retained allegiance to government clearly presents a problem for SPLM/A
authority in the south,” the humanitarian source added.

During his annual speech on New Year’s day, marking the country’s
independence from British rule, President Omar el-Bashir indicated that he
was willing to enter into wealth and power-sharing negotiations with
Darfur rebels just as he did with the SPLM/A in the south.

“We call upon all the sons of Sudan, inside and outside, to embrace peace,
to listen to the voice of wisdom and to give priority to dialogue by
making it the only path to solving our problems,” the president said.

However, the special representative of the UN Secretary-General for Sudan,
Jan Pronk, warned the Security Council on 11 January that Darfur might
move into a period of intense violence unless swift action was taken and
new approaches were considered.

“December saw a build-up of arms, attacks on positions, including air
attacks, raids on small towns and villages, increased banditry, and more
looting,” he said.

Pronk warned that government forces might be tempted to think the
conclusion of the southern peace agreement would provide a brief window of
immunity from international criticism for their actions in Darfur.

According to Prendergast, certain elements in the Sudanese security
apparatus who masterminded the Darfur campaign may not want a peaceful
settlement in the region and may continue to pursue a strategy of divide
and conquer.

The rebel movements, in turn, could perceive the north-south agreement as
a further indication of their marginalisation and choose to intensify
their military activities in an effort to be taken seriously as a party in
political talks.

The armed elements in eastern Sudan, for example, lost their main military
partner, the SPLM/A, as a result of the peace agreement and the government
succeeded in marginalising the eastern Sudanese political groups by
keeping them out of the Cairo-talks with the opposition National
Democratic Alliance (NDA).

Rebels in western Sudan have accused the government of redeploying
soldiers, no longer needed following the peace deal with the south, to the
civil war in Darfur. Justice and Equality Movement rebel leader Colonel
Omar Adam told the BBC’s Focus on Africa programme on 10 January that “the
government is preparing for war”.

“It is hard to imagine that the peace dividend promised by the Nairobi
agreement will be reaped without an end to the suffering in Darfur,” Pronk
told the Council. “International aid will not flow, and more importantly,
in Sudan itself the achievement will turn out to be vulnerable. As long as
there is war in some part of the country, resources will be spent on
weapons, not welfare.”

Justice Still an Iissue

Human rights groups hope the agreement will usher in a new era for the
protection of the rights of the Sudanese people as well as reforms to
address injustice, discrimination and gross human rights violations in the
country.

However, the peace agreement lacks any provision for a truth commission,
prosecutions, or other forms of accountability for past abuses in the
southern conflict.

Prendergast agreed that more focus on justice and reconciliation was
required, but said that the inclusion of proper accountability mechanisms
in the agreement “would have taken another two years of negotiations,”
noting that, “there is not a lot of stomach for it right now because
everybody wants to get the implementation underway”.

The key difference between Darfur and the south, he noted, was the
international commission of inquiry, authorised by the Council, which will
issue its findings later this month.

The commission is conducting a three-month investigation into serious
violations of international human rights and humanitarian law that have
been committed in Darfur and is tasked with identifying perpetrators of
crimes with a view to ensuring accountability.

Fragile Gains

According to Pronk, the gains from the current peace agreement “are as yet
too fragile to be taken for granted. It will take more than mere
signatures for peace to prevail”.

Citing some of the main callenges that lie ahead, Pronk stressed the need
for south-south dialogue with the other movements that did not participate
in the Naivasha peace-talks, to make sure they would adhere to the peace
agreement and a swift resolution to the conflicts in Darfur, eastern Sudan
and the north.

Other important tasks Pronk identified were the return and resettlement of
the six million internally displaced persons and refugees, demobilisation
of former fighters, clearance of mines and the implementation of
sustainable development programmes that would tackle a major root cause of
conflict – poverty and underdevelopment.

Much also depends on the commitment of international organisations and
leaders to supporting the implementation of the accords, their ongoing
leadership and coordination of assistance, as well as the adequate
provision of resources for a strong peacekeeping mission.

Prendergast observed that the recently signed agreement has a better
chance for success than previous peace accords, as its internal and
external guarantees are more substantial.

“The SPLA will maintain its own forces throughout the interim period,
while a peace observer force of the UN will oversee the implementation,”
he said.

However, the challenges ahead are enormous, and the peace in this country,
torn by ravaging wars since its independence, remains fragile.