ANALYSIS-Violence threatens Ethiopia push for democracy
By Katie Nguyen
ADDIS ABABA, June 9 (Reuters) – Ethiopia’s drive for greater democracy looked badly damaged on Thursday after post-election violence stoked fears the Horn of Africa’s dominant power may relapse into authoritarian rule, analysts said.
The United States, which sees sub-Saharan Africa’s second most populous country as an ally against terrorism, urged Ethiopians to refrain from violence after security forces killed at least 26 people and wounded more than 100 on Wednesday.
But Ethiopians said the worst violence in Addis Ababa in four years had sharply raised the political temperature in the capital, an opposition stronghold, and further unrest over last month’s disputed elections could not be ruled out.
Most analysts blamed the bloodshed on habits of political intolerance acquired over generations of dictatorship, saying the violence resulted from a mixture of heavy-handed policing and inflammatory opposition rhetoric.
“A police reaction of this type is an overhang from the past. They don’t know how to handle protests, so they overreact,” said William Zartman, a specialist on African conflict resolution at Johns Hopkins University in Maryland.
“It could hurt the democratic opening if people on both sides continue to overreact.”
Information Minister Bereket Simon was not immediately available for comment.
Both sides swapped blame for the violence, which followed weeks of rising tension over preliminary results from May 15 parliamentary elections, which the opposition says were rigged by Prime Minister Meles Zenawi’s ruling coalition, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF).
Less than a month ago, the same streets were overflowing with people voting in what diplomats described as Ethiopia’s most open and democratic elections in its 3,000 year-history.
Ethiopia is struggling to shake off the effects of centuries of feudalism followed by nearly two decades of Marxism under dictator Mengistu Haile Mariam, who was ousted in 1991 by guerrilla leader Meles Zenawi, now prime minister.
Meles’s 14-year-old government of tough-minded former revolutionaries won international acclaim last month for allowing the opposition unprecedented access to media and freedom to hold rallies during the campaign.
CAN PLURALISM TAKE ROOT?
It was a big contrast to the administration’s sometimes authoritarian approach to the opposition, often dismissed by EPRDF officials as nobodies from Addis Ababa’s traditionally opposition-dominated commercial and intellectual elite.
But observers question whether the EPRDF will allow pluralism to take root in an atmosphere of confrontation.
“Meles and the EPRDF have definitely opened the door to democracy and it’s critical they don’t squander that opportunity,” said David Shinn, adjunct professor at George Washington University and a former U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia.
“I’m hopeful it’s a process that cannot be turned back, but there’s a lot of history that argues the other way. Ethiopia has had 2,000 years of a centralised government. There will always be a reluctance to yield to a process that is more inclusive,” he told Reuters.
Millions voted in the polls, only the second real multi-party contest in Africa’s top coffee producer, where many among the 72 million people suffer recurrent drought and famine.
The opposition increased its strength in parliament almost tenfold, taking most seats in the capital, but the announcement of final results has been delayed for a month amid opposition allegations of rigging by the EPRDF.
The delay in results angered the main opposition group, the Coalition for Unity and Democracy (CUD), which has recently criticised the government in bad-tempered language it would not have dared use in the past.
Chris Albin-Lackey, a researcher for Human Rights Watch, said: “Given how bad the delay in announcing results look, and combined with the inflammatory rhetoric coming out of the CUD, it is easy to see why the government is nervous.”
Ethiopians suspect economic hardship played some part in the violence, which featured looting of shops and bank robberies. Many blame state control of the largely agrarian economy for failing to lift the country out of a chronic cycle of poverty.
Diplomats say the violence may have caused some political discomfort to the 53-nation African Union (AU), the leading African organisation trying to stop the continent’s wars, since its secretariat is based in the city of more than 3 million.
AU spokesman Adam Thiam declined immediate comment on the unrest but said a communique on the topic was being prepared. (Additional reporting by William Maclean in Nairobi)