Unity govt aims to cover up Sudan’s fractious politics

KHARTOUM, July 5 (AFP) — The appointment of a new unity government will cover up Sudan’s fractious politics but the upcoming interim period could witness intense jostling ahead of general elections.

Khartoum and former southern rebels, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), signed a peace deal last January in Nairobi that ended more than two decades of north-south conflict which cost more than 1.5 million lives.

The agreement called for a new constitution and the formation of a national unity government for a six-year interim period — which starts on Saturday — before a referendum on the secession of the south.

“During the interim period, there shall be a government of national unity reflecting the need for inclusiveness, the promotion of national unity,” according to the text of the agreement.

The deal gave the ruling National Congress (NC) party and the SPLM 52 and 28 per cent of executive posts and legislative seats, respectively, at the national level, leaving the opposition with 20 percent.

Fourteen out of the 20 percent will go to northern opposition parties, with the remaining six per cent to be split among southern groups.

The SPLM and NC have campaigned hard, with varying degrees of success, to bring as many northern and southern groups on board.

In April, the SPLM managed to win support from the south’s fractious political groups for the peace deal at the end of a three-day reconciliation conference in Kenya.

But SPLM leader John Garang still has to bring southern militia commanders previously supported by the government into the fold. Analysts warned their continued presence in the bush could disturb the peace agreement.

On June 18, Khartoum and the country’s largest opposition bloc, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), signed an agreement in Cairo that heralded the NDA’s return home and participation in political life.

The NDA, whose members include more than a dozen groups from the north, east and west, is still haggling with the NC and SPLM over the 20 percent quota allotted to the opposition, saying it wants fairer representation.

The NC and SPLM argue that altering the quotas would require a renegotiation of the north-south deal, or Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), something which the two peace partners are reluctant to do.

Observers warn that any attempt by the NC and SPLM to monopolize power will be counterproductive to reconciliation efforts.

“The success of the unity government will depend on the extent to which they are prepared to share power with the others,” said Haider Ibrahim, director of the Centre for Sudanese Studies in Cairo.

The Umma party, one of the largest political groups in the country, and the Popular Congress (PC) party of Islamist leader Hassan al-Turabi have already refused to sign up in protest at the quotas.

Turabi, the one-time mentor of President Omar al-Beshir, was released from jail on June 30 and he celebrated his freedom by lashing out at the interim constitution.

“For the first time in the world, a constitution determines the majority that will rule the country while this should be left to the people to determine,” he said.

Umma, the PC and a handful of other groups have said their participation in government will be determined by the outcome of general elections due to be held by the end of the fourth year of the interim period.

The polls will end the quota system and possibly lead to a redrawing of Sudan’s political map.

The SPLM may have to forge alliances with the non-Arab constituencies in the south, Nuba mountains in central Sudan and southern Blue Nile, where it has support, and the NC will attempt to woo northern political groups.

“It’s going to be a strange election,” Ibrahim noted.

He said the Umma will no longer hold sway in its traditional stronghold in the western region of Darfur, and its historic rival, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), may also find it hard to win its usual supporters in the east.

Conflict has been raging on in Darfur since early 2003 when ethnic minority rebels rose up against Khartoum demanding greater autonomy for their region.

In the east, an armed rebellion by the Beja tribes and Rashaidah Arabs, has also flared up against the marginalization of the region by successive regimes in Khartoum, including Umma and DUP governments.

The coming stage, said Ibrahim, will see a reshaping of the political map along ethnic lines. “Ethnic affiliations will play a great role in forming political tendency,” he predicted.

Some political parties would have to form alliances with unlikely partners for their own political survival.