Death of an Enigma
By ALEX DE WAAL, The Wall Street Journal
August 3, 2005 — John Garang de Mabior ran the Sudan People’s Liberation Army as his personal fiefdom for 22 years. But his legacy is a robust peace deal that can live on after his untimely death in a helicopter crash over the weekend. SPLA leaders met on Monday and unanimously agreed that his number two, Salva Kiir Mayardit, would take over. Mr. Kiir is a unifying figure for Southerners and is likely to bring an inclusive and collegial approach to his task. But he needs to move swiftly to reassure his people and his new colleagues in government in Khartoum.
The Bush administration was a moving force behind Africa’s most remarkable peace deal. That agreement can be preserved and deepened by keeping a steady hand this week, as Sudanese grief and anger threatens to spill over into renewed conflict.
When John Danforth was appointed as President Bush’s Special Envoy for Sudan four years ago, no Africa analyst gave him a chance of success. The divisions between the Islamist government and the Southerners, mostly Christians and followers of what an old Sudanese constitution nicely called “noble spiritual beliefs,” seemed far too deep. Not only was President Omer al Bashir committed to controlling the rebellious South by force, but his long-time adversary, Mr. Garang, was equally intransigent in demanding that the government, with its atrocious human rights record and history of supporting terrorism, must go. Sudan’s peace process was snakes-and-ladders — with no ladders.
Mr. Garang was an enigma. He didn’t reflect the aspirations of most Southern Sudanese to separate from Northern Sudan, arguing instead that the South would get a better deal as part of an “African” majority that could control the whole of Sudan. Nor did he build a democratic movement or a civil administration for the areas he controlled. But his dogged resistance won him respect; he ultimately became the pivotal figure in Sudan’s politics, and was sworn in as vice president just three weeks before his death. Not just Southerners, but people from Darfur and eastern Sudan, and the downtrodden of Khartoum itself, saw him as proof that things were at long last changing.
The SPLA leader was a reluctant convert to peacemaker. During three years of painstaking negotiations, he kept the military option in reserve. Until the very last hour, his profound distrust of Khartoum, with its history of broken promises and serial atrocity, made him hesitate to sign. The final agreement is defensive: It keeps the SPLA as a separate army, controlling Southern Sudan, for a six-year interim period.
It is a remarkably good deal, and it came about in a remarkable way. The driving force has been exhaustion with an unwinnable war, along with Khartoum’s recognition that Mr. Garang was the best chance for unity. But the Bush administration deserves credit. It is an example of what can be achieved by pursuing a simple aim — peace — with persistence and international cooperation. No other African issue has commanded such attention from the administration.
And it has worked, in an unusual way. A Kenyan general, representing a bloc of north-east African countries, led the mediation. The British organized an advisory group of former African guerrillas to help SPLA commanders think through the transition from insurgents to members of a national army, serving alongside former enemies. The Swiss stepped in to help negotiate a truce in the Nuba Mountains, which was then monitored by Norwegians. The World Bank provided technical skills on how to share Sudan’s oil revenue. It’s ad hoc multilateralism.
The Bush administration has rightly resisted the siren calls for regime change, knowing that the alternatives would likely be no better, and that chaos would be worse. They have been building the ladders, not feeding the snakes. Activists criticize the ethics of dealing with a brutal government. They have kept Sudan in the spotlight. But it is patience and compromise — the needlework of diplomacy — that will deliver peace.
The peace process was always fraught: 10 senior members of Khartoum’s security cabal are being investigated for war crimes; two million people are displaced and facing famine following genocidal massacre in Darfur; the country teems with armed militia; presidential aides rough up reporters. And now it faces its greatest challenge: The man who symbolized the aspirations of millions of oppressed Sudanese is gone.
But Mr. Garang’s wisdom in examining every line in the hundreds of pages of detailed agreement is now his greatest legacy. Peace, institutionalized, can be consummated without him. The SPLA has already achieved a seamless leadership transition. The agreement and the new constitution are clear: Salva Kiir is the next vice president, and the Government of National Unity should be formed next week. The mourning period notwithstanding, these steps must proceed. Mr. Kiir should fly to Khartoum, be sworn in, and approve the list of candidates for governorships and ministerial portfolios. Along with condolences, President Bush has sent the right message to Sudan: no change in U.S. policy.
– Mr. de Waal, a fellow at the Global Equity Initiative, at Harvard, is the author, with Julie Flint, of “Darfur: A Short History of a Long War,” forthcoming in September from Zed Press.