Analyst says Turabi’s release due to confidence at home

NAIROBI, Oct. 16, 2003 (IRIN) — The release of Dr Hassan al-Turabi, a key Islamist leader of the Sudanese opposition, is due to electoral confidence at home and not outside pressure, according to John Prendergast of the advocacy organisation, International Crisis Group (ICG).

“It demonstrates the government’s level of confidence in its future role in Sudan, that the principal threats it perceived itself to face in the political landscape have diminished,” said Prendergast, ICG’s co-director for Africa.

Turabi, who was freed on Monday along with other detainees, said his release was ordered because of a combination of national and international pressure for greater political freedoms and peace in Sudan. But the government’s political adviser, Dr Qutbi Mahdi, issued a swift denial saying the decision was not made because of any “pressure”, rather because there was “no reason to continue detaining him”.

Prendergast told IRIN the US administration had not pushed for Turabi’s release. The decision was an “internal calculation”, he stated.

He added that the government was “very confident” it would remain in power if elections were held early within the six-year interim period, following the signing of a comprehensive peace agreement with the rebel Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A). “Because of its delivery of a peace deal and oil revenues, there’s a confidence in its electoral prospects,” he said.

The government would now systematically try to “lure” the opposition parties – Turabi’s Popular National Congress (PNC), as well as the Ummah and the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) – into an alliance, Prendergast said.

Since his release, Turabi has urged the government to include opposition parties in any alliance formed with the SPLM/A.

Prendergast said Turabi’s party, which has about five percent hardline support among the electorate, might choose to campaign on specific issues that are relevant to the peace process, such as the issue of Sharia in the capital, or the territorial integrity of Sudan.

But, he added that the PNC would have its “finger in the wind”, assessing which way it was blowing and “how to use it to its advantage”.

Turabi backed the 1989 coup that brought President Omar al-Bashir to power, but was ousted from key political positions in 1999 after a power struggle. He was then arrested in February 2001 – but never brought to trial – and charged with offences related to “crimes against the state”.

The presidential decree leading to his release reportedly allows the PNC to reopen its headquarters and to publish its newspaper.