Intl Community must intervene to avoid war between Eritrea-Ethiopia – ICG
Dec 22, 2005 (NAIROBI/BRUSSELS) — Key international actors need to urgently re-engage if a disastrous new war between Eritrea and Ethiopia is to be averted.
Ethiopia and Eritrea: Preventing War,* the latest report from the International Crisis Group, lays out a comprehensive set of actions to avoid a failure of the fragile peace agreed in Algiers in 2000. At the heart of the dispute is the ruling of the independent Boundary Commission established to delimit (on paper) and demarcate (on the ground) the contested border. The key issue is the Commission’s assignment of the border town of Badme to Eritrea, with Ethiopia refusing to accept that ruling, at least without a prior dialogue – in which Eritrea refuses to engage.
“The stakes could hardly be higher”, says Gareth Evans, Crisis Group President. “Neither side appears eager for a second war, but the situation is very fragile, and to dismiss current tensions as mere sabre rattling would be a serious mistake.”
The report argues that those who helped put together the Algiers accords – the African Union, the UN, the U.S. and the EU – need to move urgently to put together a “3-Ds” strategy, involving concurrent de-escalation, demarcation and dialogue.
De-escalation requires, as UN Security Council Resolution 1640 has demanded, that Ethiopia pull back from the border the seven additional divisions it moved up a year ago, and that Eritrea lift the restrictions it has imposed on the UN mission (UNMEE). The UN could assist by making clear its willingness to downsize and restructure its mission if tensions ease.
Ethiopia must drop its opposition to the physical demarcation of the border proceeding immediately, recognizing that a decision which it agreed would be “final and binding” must be just that. Eritrea, in turn, should agree to a concurrent dialogue on bilateral issues (including port access, and cross-border support for rebel groups) other than the border location.
“Defusing the present crisis and addressing the root causes of the problem have to proceed in tandem if peace in the Horn is to be preserved”, says Matt Bryden, Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa Project Director.
The next decision point is early January 2006, when the Security Council is scheduled to address the situation again. The two parties urgently need help once more from those who helped them in 2000, and who in turn must be prepared to use intensive diplomacy – supplemented by the credible threat of sanctions if the Security Council resolutions and the terms of the Algiers Agreement continue to be flouted.
The full report is available at :
http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?l=1&id=3850