Eastern Sudan conflict may escalate into major war – ICG

Jan 5, 2006 (NAIROBI) — The low-level conflict between the Sudanese government and rebels in the east could escalate into full-blown war with disastrous results for civilians in the restive area, a think-tank said on Thursday.

Despite a year-old peace deal between Khartoum and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) that has ended two decades of civil war in Sudan’s south, conflict still simmers in the east and in the western region of Darfur.

The International Crisis Group (ICG) said the SPLM’s planned withdrawal this month from areas held by the eastern rebels, under the terms of the peace accord, is behind schedule and may be postponed until March.

But once SPLM forces — numbering between 3,500 and 5,500 — eventually withdraw, a deadly struggle could erupt for control of one of Sudan’s most economically important areas.

At a news conference to launch a report on East Sudan, ICG analyst David Mozersky said his biggest concern would be how Khartoum would respond once the SPLM left.

“You have to fear the worst, given that the government has shown such viciousness in dealing with the rebellion in Darfur as well as in the South and the Nuba mountains,” Mozersky said.

“I believe they would pursue a policy of blatant disregard and targeting of civilians who they consider to be supporters of the rebels,” he added.

Mozersky said that while the rebels numbered only 2,000, they had the capacity to inflict long-term damage to critical economic infrastructure there: Sudan’s only port, the main oil pipeline carrying crude exports and Sudan’s largest gold mine.

And a bigger conflict would harm the delivery of aid and development to the poor population there, as humanitarian organisations would be forced to pull out.

The eastern rebels have held a small piece of territory close to the border with Eritrea since the late 1990s.

Crisis Group urged the SPLM to use its influence over its former eastern allies to push for a provisional ceasefire, and to press the government to hold talks with the main rebel alliance, the Eastern Front.

Like the insurgents in Darfur, the eastern rebels accuse the the central government in Khartoum of neglecting their area.

Eastern Sudan’s low-level revolt escalated last year when police fired on a peaceful march in Port Sudan, killing and injuring dozens of people.

Peace talks between Khartoum and the Eastern Front, formed in February 2005 by the Beja Congress and Rashaida Free Lions, are scheduled to be held in Libya later this month.

(Reuters)

The full text of the report is available at:
http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?l=1&id=3858