Dilemma of US initiative on Eritrea-Ethiopia border row
Michael Abraha*
Feb 21, 2006 — Ethiopia is unwilling to give up the contentious Badme enclave as stipulated in an international border ruling. And it is unlikely that the US will put pressure on Ethiopia, a long-time friend and a close ally in the fight against terrorism. At the same time Eritrea continues with its hard-line position threatening another armed confrontation, which she may not win.
Ethiopia says it is ready to meet any Eritrean challenge, even though it prefers the current impasse to continue as it grapples with sticky internal power struggle. The stalemate also suits conservative nationalists as they try to figure out whether Ethiopia has the right or the means to repossess Eritrea or parts of it. More realistically, however, Ethiopia should be happy if there came a friendly administration in Asmara, willing to become a political and economic partner instead of a military rival.
Eritrea will not consider any form of future cooperation unless the border is demarcated first. To this end, it has left no stone unturned in a bid to enforce a favorable international border ruling. In the process, Eritrea has become even more alienated because of its aggressive anti UN stance and mistreatment of UN staff serving in the country. The US and Europe are more concerned with the unfolding political struggle to build a more united and democratic Ethiopia than with Eritrea’s call for border demarcation.
Still, the US is trying to engage and to keep talking to the two sides while examining options that best serve its strategic interest centering mainly on depriving potential anti US terrorists of a safe haven in a poverty stricken, unstable Horn Region.
US Ambassador to the UN, John Bolton, is doing exactly that. Without being antagonistic, he accuses Ethiopia of violating international agreements and is very direct about the need to demarcate the border. Ambassador Bolton is not worried about short-term inconveniences or crucial long-term implications about Eritrea’s onslaught on UN peace monitoring operations in the buffer zone. Nor is he discouraged by Eritrea’s snapping of US and other Western diplomats. Still, he does not see that sanctions would promote stability in the region.
What is required is a face-saving compromise leading to a real rapprochement including full cooperation between the parties. But given the fierce animosities, ego and pride standing on the way an all-out war is still a possibility.
In the absence of any concessions from either side regarding Badme, there is nothing much the US can offer. There is a chance that it may recommend some kind of dialogue before demarcation if it deems there are legal and political grounds to justify it. But this would isolate Eritrea even further and would make war more inevitable. One easier but riskier choice left for the US might be to let the conflict run its own natural course.
* Michael Abraha is a USA based Ethiopian working for African Refugee and Immigrant Rights Program, also he is a former Ethiopia Radio/TV journalist.