Why all these dispute between Bashir and Taha?

By Watts Roba Gibia Nyirigwa*

Mar 30, 2006 — The National Islamic Front (NIF) ministers and security officials is the Sudan’s inner circle which form a tight net of power that combines tribal, religious and military elements. After the coup in 1989, Turbi was widely viewed as the man behind the coup, while Bashir as president, and Taha as chief aide to Turbi, his mentor. After a lousy falling-out with Bashir and Taha, Turbi left government in 1999. Bashir and Taha worked as a team. Taha is extremely bright and have been described by observers as the man who runs country’s daily affairs, and knows how to maneuver and absorb the international pressure. And that was obvious in concluding peace deal with south. Also while he was in Kenya at the final weeks of peace negotiation with SPLM, Taha had to drop negotiation and return to Khartoum, as according to him, he has been receiving desperate phone calls from top officials including Bashir, about how to combat the insurgency eruption in Darfur. He said I had to return and launch my vision of how the situation could be best handled. Taha and Garang were considered engineers of CPA despite the fact that some analysts say that the complex CPA and its implementation modalities has been developed at American Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. These two men and their negotiating team at Naivasha know the tiny details of the CPA and how it could be implemented. Due to the long period of CPA negotiation, Taha and Garang have come to know each other better and formed an intimate relationship, mutual understanding and common vision for New Sudan. Garang wanted to realize the democratic transformation of Sudan through CPA. And Taha wanted to modernize the NCP and enhance his control over NCP with two objectives, national unity of the country and his political conviction. Nafei and Bashir were not happy with Garang – Taha alliance, as both of them feared what Taha called transformation of NCP. Thus, after death of Garang, Taha was left in dilemma. And that was clear in the formation of government of national unity, as Taha and his negotiation team were undressed from their responsibilities, and hardliners were brought in with radical views to pin and slowdown the implementation of peace deal. Taha has no hand in shaping the government of national unity. As the hardliners’ position were clear right at the CPA negotiation, as during the negotiation, a top SPLM negotiator disclosed that, Majzoub al-Khalifa and Nafei Ali Nafei were very adamant and said in many occasions that they prefer separation or war but refused to make any concession. And according to them, Ali Osman Taha has made lot of concession to SPLM. Thus, Taha has been marginalized and Bashir – Nafei strong alliance forged. Dispute between Bashir -Taha has been there right after formation of GNU, and prior Taha’s trip to Saudi Arabia for pilgrimage, which was widely viewed as a refreshment trip to reorganize his thoughts. The dispute between the two men become apparent during the row over UN role in Darfur, and Taha’s statement in Brussels that UN forces role may be considered to Darfur after concluding peace deal in Abuja. NCP hardliners engulfing President advised him that, Taha has exceeded his granted government and party’s mandate and that the AU Security council decision at Addis Ababa has been cooked in Brussels, due to Taha’s retreat before the international community pressure and its readiness to accept it. The pressure on Taha was intensified while he was in Brussels, by demonstration of Popular Defence Forces against Taha’s statement and position toward UN role in Darfur. Taha was under pressure and had to prove that he is innocent, as he got the message correctly. But at the press conference, he never disclosed positively or negatively of any disputes between him and President, but rather said that the reservation of President is our entire reservation, and went on to say that we do not accept UN forces to Darfur either prior or after reaching peace agreement in Abuja, and assured Majzoub al-Khalifa that the dossier of Darfur will remain in his hands. This smart guy, who knows how to maneuver and confuse, has been corned and handcuffed by hardliners! But is this an indication that Taha is weakened now and waiting for his hour to regain his strength, trust and confidence of President, as the power struggle within the NCP has not yet finished. And that is what time would disclose to us in the coming weeks and months.

Taha runs a tight team all with talents he understands how to use it. And Taha is known for his art of confuse, as he has become peacemaker in south while he was coordinator of the counterinsurgency strategy in Darfur. In an interview, Taha said “nobody would say we have been perfect in handling Darfur, but in wars things happen that are outside of the normal, and in such a complex situation, there would be gaps and shortcomings, and one wishes that this chapter in Sudan’s history had not taken place”. This is a clear confession and admission from prominent government figure, as how poorly the Darfur situation has been handled. And that was obvious when former Foreign Minister Mustafa Osman Ismail who is known to diplomats and aid workers as “Mr. Smile” for his ability to make dire situation sound fine, visited Darfur with Pronk, striding through the burned camp which had been destroyed by government soldiers, Ismail standing amid charred rubble, turned to Pronk and asked, “so where’s the evidence?”. This is the capacity and talent of confusing and turning the catastrophic situation into nothing, and instead faulting the international community for flaming the situation in Darfur.

The current accusation made by Turbi, who was a leading figure of regime at that time against some prominent NCP figures, surely does not come from vacuum, but might be from credible sources, and that was apparently by NCP suspension of its scheduled negotiation with Popular Congress party. As if we go back to the attempted assassination of Mubarak in Addis Abbas June 1995, at that time Taha and Nafei were at same boat, while Bashir at that time was partially marginalized. If we could recall well Nafei was the key man in the NIF before the coup, and he was responsible of NIF intelligence office, and all the Sudanese intelligence leadership, even Salah Gosh was in his pocket, till recently he (Nafei) was the head of the hidden direction of NIF. It is worth mentioning here that Nafei who had always backed Taha was disappointed by Taha, and the reason is CPA, as Nafei never believed in CPA but rather prefers separation of south or war to overcome and control all the marginalized people of Sudan. And the current NCP brook at the government of national unity is representative of these hardliners, whose intentions were to block the implementation process and put CPA to death. And actually, they are succeeding by having trust and confidence of President, and by sidelining Taha and negotiation team at Naivasha. And this has got a negative impact on the entire implementation of peace agreement, as after more than one year from signing peace agreement, very little has been achieved on the road of peace process, and there was no change in the lives of Sudanese people, particularly in south, Nuba Mountains and Blue Nile. And the current dispute between SPLM and NCP over Khartoum constitution is a clear terrorization and indication from NCP hardliners of CPA persecution, and imposition of its ideology and placing vast majority of Sudanese into custody. And one can conclude that, this is a clear message to SPLM and entire peace loving Sudanese that NCP not ready for any concession but prefers separation or war.

The row over Darfur, not only between Bashir and Taha, but the entire hardliners at NCP, as they believe that due to Taha’s flexible stance to absorb the international pressure, might reach a secrete deal with International community to handover the accused high officials of NCP to International Criminal Court by allowing UN forces to Darfur. This is the core of dispute, as there was trepidation that the presence of UN forces in Darfur will assist in capturing suspected figures in Darfur atrocities. Thus, despite the acute situation in Darfur, the NCP is still instigating and mobilizing the local population not only against UN forces but also against AU. While both organizations were not enemies of Sudan. And Bashir’s saying that Darfur would be grave for UN forces is due to luck of diplomacy and capacity, while Darfur is already a graveyard to Darfurians! This is the difference of handling issues between hardliners and Taha. As the later with his high diplomacy and skill, always prefers logic solution with international community but not confrontation particularly in such a complex situation. The regional organizations such as Arab League in which Bashir’s hope lies to back and finance AU forces to Darfur, has no consistent and credible record of funding or humanitarian aid even to Palestinian torment. And that was evidential by Palestinian dependence on the international community. Thus, shortfall of Bashir’s hope came at the last Tuesday Arab summit in Khartoum, as there was no immediate fund release to resolve the crisis in Darfur till October 2006, despite the fact that the summit has been described by Mustafa Osman Ismail as Darfur summit. I believe the success which Ismail was referring to “is the medicine after death” as described by AU official Baba Gana! And this is the recipe preferred by Khartoum government from the Arab countries and not reliable UN or Western community who values human lives.

* Watts Roba Gibia Nyirigwa is a Sudan Tribune columnist, he can be reached at [email protected]