UN statement on Somalia is hurting peace efforts

By Mohieddin Sheikh Issa*

July 16, 2006 — As reported by Reuters, a statement read by French Ambassador Jean-Marc de la Sabliere, the council president for July, on Thursday, July 13th, said the 15-nation U.N. body “states its willingness” to consider the peacekeeping operation proposed by African Union and IGAD, if it feels it would contribute to peace and stability in Somalia.

The statement, drafted by Britain, also expressed the council’s readiness to ease the arms ban to enable Somalia’s shaky Transitional Federal Government to develop its own security forces.

We believe, approval of the UN’s Security council to ease arms embargo on Somalia at this time, will be irresponsible action and hurting the peace efforts.
The question is why to ease the arms embargo now, when peace talks are underway? Is’t influenced by US in order to fight the Islamic High Council?

First, the timing is wrong. The statement of the UN (we believe) had encouraged already TFG to boycot the second leg of the peace talks with the Islamic High Council in Khartoum. The President of TFG Mr. Abdullah Yusuf Ahmed thinks (we believe) that the easing of the embargo regime will allow Ethiopian troops to come into Baidao and enter Somalia to help him fight the Islamic Council, and that Ethiopia will arm his militia, under the disguise of building a national army, and even loan him troops.

It was expected, Ethiopia will not let the TFG continue with the Khartoum talks. But now that there is a window of opportunity for Ethiopia in the Security Council statement, not only Mr. Ahmed has shown not to be prepared to continue with the dialogue but looks burning all the cards with the High Council, by waging verbal attacks on the High Council, making baseless accusations, and receiving some of the defeated Mogadishu warlords in his office in Baidao, and it seems he is forging a new alliance with them, even though in the initial agreement in Khartoum the two sides agreed to have these same war lords brought in front of a court of law. One of these men is Mohamed Dhere who was close ally of Mr. Ahmed until TFG’s move to Baidao, and had stepped down as a member of TFG’s parliament to allow Ethiopia’s hand picked Mohamed Gedi take Primership in TFG government. Its needless to say, same as Mr. Ahmed, Mr Dhere is a close ally of Ethiopia and was in Ethiopia since his defeat by Islamic High Council forces. He came to Baidao this week perhaps with a message from Ethiopia and a plan. We believe that message from Ethiopia has contributed to Mr. Ahmed’s announcement not go to Khartoum.

Call on Arab League and UN:

We call on the Arab League and the UN to do the following before it is too late and we go back to square one:

– To enable Somalia’s shaky Transitional Federal Government to develop its own security forces as outlined in the Security Council statement, is merely arming Mr. Abdullah Yusuf’s militias.

– Building a national army must be after peace is restored and Somalis reaches an agreement. Only then a true national army can be raised. If IGAD is tendered by UN to help TFG build an army now, it will be simply Ethiopia arming TFG militias (of Puntland) against other groups. That is not for the benefit of the country. It is just siding with one group against another. If that happens, TFG itself would not have a legal ground to stand. It would be considered illegitimate according to the constitution that its based which calls for a peaceful settlement of the Somali conflict.

– Any decision of the UN Security Council to ease bringing arms to Somalia must not be misunderstood for lifting arms. All concerned parties must understand, the 1992 embargo regime stands until a peaceful settlement is reached in Somalia and hostilities die out.

The security council must make this clearly in any decision it makes, otherwise some countries in IGAD will use the ambiguity in the statement (draft) circulated and will start arming militias loyal to TFG or send troops to fight TFG opponents. Ethiopia in particular must restraint itself as its clearly seen as a hindrance to a peaceful settlement in Somalia.

When there is a peace, the peacekeepers can be send. UN and Arab League and African Union must work first on making peace by pressuring TFG and Islamic High Council to the dialogue table.

The African Union acts until now irresponsibly. Arming Mr. Ahmed or allowing Ethiopian troops to enter Somalia is not going to contribute to bringing peace and order to Somalia but will ignite the situation more. AU must not allow some IGAD members who are a considered part of the hostility to influence its decision.

Let’s remember the first thing Mr. Ahmed did after he was selected in Nairobi to become the President of TFG, was to fly to Ethiopia and ask for troops, which was departure from the letter of TFG’s mandate. It became clear in that day, TFG will have rough days ahead with Mr. Ahmed as its President.

African Union failed on Somalia:

African Union must listen and not take lightly the position of the Islamic High Council. Not doing so will prove to be a big mistake. Islamic High Council could raise thousands and thousands of Jihadist Muslims in Somalia and in the Horn including Ethiopia itself. Ethiopian army could find itself in a very difficult situation when thousands of armed militias in Somalia and many regions in Ethiopia took arms. This could be the beginning of the fall down of TPLF rule in Ethiopia and end of the attempt for the coexistence of different nationalities in a federal Ethiopia.

Ethiopia can positively contribute:

Ethiopian regime must try to work with those it sees as its opponents. The time of using force to settle differences is gone. Through dialogue, understanding other sides concerns and compromise, peace can be achieved and differences resolved.

Handing Somalia’s matter to the Arab League:

The African Union (through IGAD) had failed to help Somalia resolve it’s problem and its time the Arab League takes the torch which is what suppposed to happen in the first place. Somalia’s problem can be only resolved with the help of the Arab League. Therefore we ask the African Union to pass on the “Somalia File” to the Arab League.
The Arab League must be forceful in its policy towards Somalia. As a member of the league, Somalia needs the Arab League to lead the efforts to restore law and order to Somalia and help towards establishing an elected central government. There are two challenges that stand on the face of that now.

– The Ethiopian involvement: The Arab League must bring this matter into check.

– Ethiopia controls the TFG completely. TFG must be liberated. The Arab League can achieve this by helping pressuring Islamic High Council and TFG to sit down to settle differences through dialogue, putting the interest of the country before everything else. Mr. Ahmed must be given assurances that Islamic High Council does not have any plans to remove him as head of TFG and the two will continue with the Arab League facilitated talks and work towards the common goal which is to restore peace and rebuild Somalia.

In his turn Mr. Ahmed must refrain from opposing the introduction and application of Islamic Law. He has no right to oppose Islamic Law and it is not going to hurt him in anyway but its for the good benefit of everyone in the country including himself.

Somalia Settlement Regime:

The Arab League must create a regime to facilitate the resolution of this conflict and allocate the required resources. The Arab League must engage forcefully and make history by helping the Somalia problem resolved including working with Somaliland in order to achieve a lasting peaceful settlement in the region.

Somalia of 1980, will not come back again, if some people had a dream of that. We have to face the realities. If 1980s strife, resulted in the destruction of one of the most strongest and most disciplined armies in the region, we must understand, a very badly wounded Somalia will not hold the chance. Therefore, we must face the facts on the ground.

What is the objective from a united Somalia?

The objective, I believe, is to have a Somali state that is strong and stable with a dynamic economy that fulfils the inspiration of its citizens and qualifies for the aspirations of the collective vision of the Arab League in this front of the Arab land.

How that can be achieved?

First by recognizing that only through dialogue (bringing conflicting parties around the dialogue table) and recognizing the new realities on the ground. From there we go to the next step which is: this is how the situation is, this is the objective we want to achieve, and how we can achieve that objective?

Of the realities on the ground:

– The new peoples uprising in Somalia: The rise of the
– Islamic High Council.

The issue of Somaliland:

Somali Republic that came into existence in 1960 through the union of Mogadishu and Hargeisa is gone. That is a reality that have to be faced with courage as well. No more the Arab League can keep its eyes closed to this reality. Yes, Somaliland as an independent entity is a reality. But that should not be considered as the end of a strong Somalia-Somaliland region. The two entities can work together in areas that concern defence, and economy development as part of the Arab League defence and economic development pact. But first they need to build the trust between them and recognize the rights of each other. As trust building is necessary and needed among communities in Somalia. That’s where we start. No denial of rights and existence or the notion: the unity of Somalia is sacred. It’s the realization that an entity of the two entities that made the united Somali Republic in 1960 is not ready today to continue with that marriage between the two sides and therefore, there is a need to look at the best way to address this matter. War will not be a solution. Closing our eyes and dreaming that we may open it one day and find its gone away, is not not a solution as well. Therefore the Arab League and the Somalis have to, with a little courage, realize, their brothers and sisters in Somaliland had no desire to continue with their union any longer, at least for now, and have the right to do so! If so, there must be a way to work together, and thats what the focus should be.
The Arab League must know the need to recognize the facts on the ground. People in Somaliland had ratified the refrendum to revoke the union with Somalia. May be one day when the right circumstances come, they will come together again, as one entity, or a region of a large Arab/Muslim state in the future, with its khalifah in Medina; the state that many of us dream of .

Let’s take a lesson from what had taken place, few months ago in Montenegro. 56% of the Serbians in Montenegro voted for the withdrawal of their region from its union with Serbia. The European Union and Serbia recognized the result. Not doing so, would have only led to war between Montenegro and Serbia. We need to take an example from that.

* Mohieddin Asheikh Issa is a consultant based in Toronto, Canada. He can be reached at:
[email protected]