South Sudan must stand up to Khartoum’s Islamists
By Rebecca Hamilton *, The Insight
August 15, 2006 — It has now been a year since Salva Kiir Mayardit took on the leadership of Southern Sudan. He did so under traumatic circumstances, following the death of charismatic leader, Dr. John Garang, in a helicopter crash.
For many Americans it is hard to grasp the significance of Garang’s death. However, a rough approximation can be gained by recalling the impact on the American psyche when President John F. Kennedy was assassinated. Like Kennedy, Garang was a leader in life, but an icon in death.
Garang led the Southern Sudanese resistance, the SPLM, during the 21-year civil war with the North, of which 16-year with the Islamist government of Omer al-Bashir; the same government now infamously responsible for the genocide in Darfur. Under Garang’s leadership, a fruitful relationship developed between the SPLM and a primarily Christian-based coalition of American advocates; with the election of President Bush in 2000, they gained access to the White House.
After sponsoring decades of genocidal violence in the South, Khartoum was forced to the negotiating table by the newfound U.S. pressure. Under the resulting Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), Khartoum granted previously unimaginable concessions to Southern Sudan, including that the position of Sudan’s First Vice President be allocated to a Southerner. Garang took up the position just 3 weeks before his death.
I was in Lui, a town in South Sudan, one week after he died. The local church could not accommodate all those gathered to mourn. But as soldiers and civilians flowed into the surrounding fields, the mood was unexpectedly calm. In the following weeks, everyone I spoke with reiterated the same message: Dr. John gave us a gift, the vision for a peaceful Sudan, and now we must give Salva our trust to fulfill that vision.
Everyone hoped that as First Vice President in the Sudanese government, Salva Kiir would insure against Khartoum reneging on the CPA. But there were concerns. Garang had 20 years’ experience with Khartoum’s fatal approach to governance and was savvy enough to pick his battles. Although Mr. Kiir was respected as a military commander, there were early doubts about whether he had the political wherewithal to stand up to Khartoum’s maneuvering. One year on, those doubts grow daily.
Critical provisions of the CPA are being sidelined by Khartoum. Under the CPA, Southerners are entitled to 50 percent of revenue from oil extracted in the South. Khartoum has refused to allow the CPA-mandated establishment of an independent National Petroleum Commission. As a result, Khartoum’s Ministry of Energy remains the South’s only source of information about how much oil is extracted, causing many to suspect that they are not getting their fair share. President Omar al-Bashir also rejected the Boundary Commission recommendations regarding territory around oil-rich Abeyei. Granting Abeyei to the South would translate into much-needed revenue for infrastructure, such as roads, running water and electricity—all currently lacking. Perhaps the situation would be the same if Garang were alive—but people are beginning to wonder.
Mr. Bush needs a positive foreign policy legacy, and peace in South Sudan is shaping up as the only viable candidate. He invited Mr. Kiir to meet with him last month and asked how America could help keep the CPA on track. One of Mr. Kiir’s requests was that U.S. economic sanctions be removed from all of Sudan. This is untenable given the ongoing atrocities in Darfur, and Mr. Bush rightly refused. However, the request itself indicates just how compromised Mr. Kiir is vis-à-vis the leadership in Khartoum. Mr. Kiir must start worrying less about offending Mr. Bashir, and more about his standing in the eyes of Southerners. He should have rejected Mr. Bashir’s directive and instead asked that sanctions only be lifted from the South. This is something that Mr. Bush could have accepted, and it would have allowed Mr. Kiir to return to Sudan as a Southern hero.
Mr. Kiir is in an unenviable position—the successor to an icon, and a Southerner in Khartoum. But unless he starts pushing harder for the rights of Southern Sudanese, the goodwill I saw towards him after Garang’s death will run dry. Khartoum is skilled at fuelling the factionalism that has always plagued the SPLM. Garang’s dictatorial qualities provided a strong counterweight and Mr. Kiir needs to learn how to use his more inclusive style to achieve the same solidarity. Staying united against Khartoum is the only way to survive. If the leadership challenges already bubbling within the SPLM ensue, then Garang’s vision of peace and prosperity will be lost. And once again, Khartoum will utter its well-rehearsed line to the Western world: The failure of the peace agreement is not our doing, it is the result of the “tribal conflict” that happens in Africa.
– Rebecca Hamilton is a joint degree student at Harvard Law School and the John F. Kennedy School of Government. She has worked with displaced populations in South Sudan and is currently co-authoring a book chapter on the American advocacy movement for Darfur.