Darfur and Somalia: Are they connected now???

Will the supporters of Al-Qaida strike in East Africa Sooner than later??

By Scott A. Morgan

August 31, 2006 — The supporters of Al-Qaida and their supporters and colleagues in the upper Nile Basin must realize
that they may soon be in a target rich environment. They are having a currently successful campaign to consolidate their
power within Somalia, Reports indicate that the Government of Eritrea is currently arming the currently successful Union
of Islamic Courts (UIC) as they attempt to install the Government that they want. Sudan whose Government is under
current Pressure from the UN Security Council to accept a more powerful peacekeeping force for the long-standing strife
plagued region of Darfur.

What would embolden these groups to take such actions? There are two answers that are plausible. First is the current situation within Iraq where successful insurgency has tied down thousands of Amercan troops with over a
thousand fatalities. The second answer is the recent war in Lebanon. This conflict which can be seen as a Public Relations
Disaster for Israel and major coup for Hizbullah demonstated that it was possible to tie down their enemies in a protracted Miltary Campaign. US Forces have been in Iraq since 2003 and the UN stepped in to end the violence in Southern Lebanon

The first Target of Opportunity has to be Somalia. Recently the new African Union gave approval for a regional stabilization force. For some time there have been a large number of Ethiopian Forces supporting the UN-Backed Transitional Federal Government. This is the 14th attempt to restore a central Government to Somalia since the fall of the Dictator Siad Barre in 1991. Recently a detachment of Ugandan troops landed in the ‘Transitional Seat of Government” in Baidoa. Almost Immediately the Ugandans were threatened to be attacked by self-described Islamists. they feel that the Future
of Somalia should be determined by Somalis not foriegners. this in itself is a credible statement. An International working group
that discusses Somalia recently met and stated that before any aid enters Somalia the TNG and the UIC should share power. There are reports that Kenya has been declared to be not a friend of the Islamists. we all should monitor the situation carefully.

Another point of potential conflict is Darfur. Soon the United Nations Security Council will decide when and
how it will augment and then eventually take over the peacekeeping mandate for the region. Currently what would should be
considered as a token force is trying to ensure the safety of thousands of people in camps that have been attacked by Sudanese
Government forces and their regional Allies. On more than one occasion the fighting has spilled across the border into neighboring
Chad. The number of casualties from fighting and disease are staggering. but there is a question that begs to be asked what is
Khartoum trying to hide? Recently an envoy from Slovenia was convicted of printing false news and recently an American News Reporter was arrested after entering Sudan via Darfur. Both cases were handled by the same judge.

The proposed new force is not welcome news to the Sudanese Government. Reports indicate that they
have stated that the new UN force would be fought to maintain the soverignty of Sudan. Recently a patrol of the current force of
Peacekeepers was ambushed with two soldiers being killed. if this is any indication of what events are to come in Darfur then the UN
needs to increase its Intelligence Gathering in the region and ask for both regional and International assistance in determining threats.
There have been charges of increases in the flow of weapons into the region that may indicate that an operation is in the works.

So could these situations lead into a wide ranging war? the answer is that its possible. With the ruling parties in
both Sudan and Eritrea signing accords increasing cooperation in an effort to surround Ethiopia with hostile neighbors anything can
happen. a regime in Somalia allied to the Khartoum-Asmara axis could box Ethiopia in nicely.In another interesting twist Sudan has been
asked to provide additional peacekeepers to deploy to Somalia. Then the question becomes will the US
intervene in Somalia as it tried to do in 1991 and withdrew after a botched raid led to the deaths of 18 US Soldiers? Can the US be
able to undertake such a effort while fighting in Iraq? Will the Islamists control the destiny of East Africa? there are too many questions
with not so pleasant answers to be asked..

* The author is a Human Rights Activist and Commentor on US Policy in Africa he can be contacted at
[email protected]