350,000 may be displaced if AU leaves Darfur – UN

Sept 18, 2006 (KHARTOUM) — Some 350,000 people in Sudan’s war-ravaged west could be displaced if African Union forces leave Darfur when their mandate expires at the end of the month, the United Nations said on Monday.

It forecast that if the 7,000-strong AU force pulled out of Darfur, humanitarian access there would deteriorate dramatically as attacks on vehicles made road travel impossible outside urban centres.

The U.N. also feared more civilians could be killed in areas out of reach of aid workers.

“We feel very strongly that any pullout of the peacekeepers as they are today will trigger a much more serious situation in Darfur,” U.N. Humanitarian Coordinator in Sudan Manuel da Silva told a news conference in Khartoum.

“We think that if the African Union leaves Darfur, there will be many more people displaced in a very short time,” he added, estimating that 350,000 could be displaced in the months following a pullout.

Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir is under heavy international pressure to accept U.N. peacekeepers who would more aggressively enforce a shaky ceasefire in Darfur.

African heads of state are due to meet in New York on Wednesday to discuss the situation in Darfur, where an estimated 200,000 people have died since the conflict flared in 2003.

Sudan, which has likened a U.N. presence in Darfur to an invasion force bent on regime change in Khartoum, is expected to agree to an extension of the AU mandate, which expires on Sept. 30.

Western leaders, some African presidents, and international humanitarian groups say a U.N. force is the only way to avert a catastrophe in Darfur, where more than 2 million people have been displaced by fighting between government troops, rebels and militias.

The United Nations said the anticipated fresh displacements in any void caused by the departure of African forces would involve people moving to already overflowing urban camps or to remote mountains and rural areas, far from humanitarian aid.

It also said a pullout could lead to a loss of services including clean water and health care. Cholera was an “ongoing problem”, and the expiration of the AU mandate coincided with the start of the malaria season.

“We know that with access to affected populations and the generous support of our donors we can produce concrete results and save lives,” da Silva said.

“But if we are unable to provide assistance … malnutrition and deaths from preventable diseases will increase, and the long-term picture will look increasingly bleak.”

(Reuters)