AU’s Konare may propose 3-month troop extension in Darfur

Sept 19, 2006 (KHARTOUM) — African Union Commission chairman Alpha Oumar Konare will likely recommend to African leaders meeting in New York on Wednesday that they extend the mandate for African forces in Darfur for three more months to avoid a security void, analysts and AU sources said.

They said Konare would likely tell the leaders he hoped an extension would allow more time for the United Nations and Sudan to come to an agreement on the deployment of U.N. peacekeepers in Sudan’s war-ravaged west.

“There is a possibility of an extension for three months or a withdrawal with very negative effects,” said Noureddine Mezni, AU spokesman in Khartoum. “We have these two options.”

“We definitely don’t want any vacuum. We will try to avoid it at all costs. We believe in dialogue and consultation to find a way out.”

Konare was expected to tell the leaders at the meeting of the AU Peace and Security Council that a 3-month extension for African forces was the most workable option for Darfur, where 200,000 people have died since the conflict flared in 2003.

An indefinite extension for the 7,000 poorly funded African troops, whose mandate expires on Sept. 30, would not be presented as a realistic choice.

Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir, who is in New York, is under heavy international pressure to admit 20,000 U.N. peacekeepers who would be better able to enforce a shaky peace agreement in Darfur.

Western leaders, some African presidents, and international humanitarian groups say a U.N. force is the only way to stem violence in Darfur, where more than 2 million people have been displaced by fighting between government troops, rebels and militias.

SUDAN LIKELY TO ACCEPT

Sudan, which has likened U.N. peacekeepers to an invasion force bent on regime change in Khartoum, appears likely to accept an extension of the African Union force presence.

“They seem to have opened the door to an extension of the AU mandate,” said Dave Mozersky, horn of Africa project manager for the International Crisis Group.

“It makes sense to strengthen the AU mission on the ground until the U.N. can take over. What I have heard is an extension of 2-4 months.”

Sudan’s Second Vice President Ali Osman Mohamed Taha, who is close to Bashir, called on Monday for the strengthening of AU efforts at implementing a Darfur peace deal signed in May between the government and one rebel faction.

On the other hand a withdrawal, if that is the option AU leaders choose, would take over a month to complete. A withdrawal could also lead to an escalation with possible repercussions on neighbouring countries including Chad and the Central African Republic, analysts said.

The United Nations has said that an African Union force withdrawal could lead some 350,000 people to be displaced, and humanitarian access would deteriorate dramatically as attacks on vehicles made road travel impossible outside urban areas.

But analysts said that extending the AU presence for a few months would not resolve the long-term conflict in Darfur, and could be seen as a victory for Sudan in its opposition to a U.N. force.

“I imagine they (AU) would extend. The U.N. is pressing for that . I think the AU would look very bad to pull out without a U.N. force to replace it,” said Gill Lusk, former deputy editor for Africa Confidential political newsletter in London.

“But it would mean the issue would come up again . It’s a victory for the Sudan government, not for the people of Darfur. It is putting off the problem. One of the Sudanese government tactics is to play for time.”

(Reuters)