Ethiopia- Meles’s rule coming to an end by attrition

By Zerihun Tesfaye

September 24, 2006 — With the unleashing of terror in the urban centers and the rural
communities of Ethiopia after the debacle of the May 2005 elections, what
little legitimacy Meles & his clique might have claimed over the years
were totally lost. Events unfolding in the past year have made this
abundantly clear. The semi state of emergency Meles declared the day after
the elections can only be seen as an admission of the loss of this
legitimacy and, at the same time, as a declaration that from that time
onwards, his rule is going to rest on the security apparatus and the
military.

How difficult must it be then, when the institution on which he and
the clique pinned their hopes for their future rule starts being eroded
under their watchful eyes in such a short time. Such is indeed the case
when you have two Generals (a decorated war veteran!) Colonels, other
officers and soldiers defect en masse; and to make it worse, declare
their intention of joining opponents of the regime and declaring their
intent to fight for its overthrow.

What makes it more alarming and painful to the clique is the fact
that some of these officers were ex-POWs of the previous regime, who grew
in EPRDF’s bosom, being inculcated with its ‘ideology’ cum propaganda,
and who had distinguished themselves with its own criteria. Indeed, it
ought to be more than alarming to the clique as to what might be
larking behind its seemingly stable armed forces if these officers cut their
ties loose despite the obvious loss of rank and privilege that will
come with their defection,.

As if the rank of the defecting officers and soldiers was not
alarming enough, the loci, timing and number of people involved must have
shocked the clique, for it was a definite failure of its much talked about
security apparatus – especially that of its military intelligence – to
not be aware when such plans were initiated, organized and implemented
with apparent ease, even though it involved a large group, and was
located in a supposedly sensitive and high alert area. The clique that was
highly rankled by this event, having no other choice or rather not
knowing any other method of looking inward, went back to its known method
of witch-hunting under the guise of Gimgema throughout the armed forces
– a practice which it supposedly had abandoned a few years back. The
result of this was apparently the dismissal of hundreds of soldiers
deemed sympathetic to the officers that defected or to other political
opposition groups, and the imprisonment of scores of officers.

If this was meant to intimidate and tighten the clique’s hold on the
army, it seems to have backfired, for another General and Colonel later
to be joined by a Major defected in a similar manner, yet again
undermining the supposedly newly strengthened military intelligence –
further
proving that the erosion will continue unabated until the trickle
becomes a flood.

It is clear that the biggest slap on the face of the clique that
caused the greatest consternation was the defection of Brigadier General
Kemal, and his group for it was the clique that rushed to announce the
defection so as to minimize any publicity damage the defection might
inflict on the already blemished image of the regime. This step of the
regime, however, would not have been futile had this been the only
defection from its ranks. It was not to be. Way before the clique ‘s next
press
release, defection by Brigadier General Hailu Gonfa and Colonel Gemechu
Ayana made headlines only to be followed by another high ranking
officer Major Tesfaye Yemane.

As if this evident crumbling from the inside was not crushing
enough, deep from inside one of the regime’s dungeons comes out a book
written by one of the principal leaders of the opposition, who is falsely
accused and jailed on trumped up charges, that narrates in great detail of
events prior to, during, and after the elections of May 2005 and the
regime’s descent into the abyss. This again became an occasion for the
regime to realize how porous its security apparatus had become leading it
to apparently interrogate and jail its own police and security
responsible for the maintenance of its dungeon. In addition to this, the
regime’s jitteriness was evident in its arbitrary decision of curtailing
visitation rights of non immediate family members.

In as much as the great majority of the population is convinced that
the regime’s heydays are over and downward descent has started, and its
eventual fall is gathering momentum it has now become clear that, from
what we read in the news, even stalwart regime supporters and
sympathizers are also sensing this and are situating themselves in favorable
positions.

The defection of over seventy diplomatic personnel, Ambassadors and
staff members of Embassies to date, including a diplomat who once had
the trust of the Prime Minister to serve him as his personal assistant
of protocol is yet another major evidence of this trend that pervades
the section that the clique thought was safe territory.

In addition personalities (Woldemichael Meshesha, the Vice president
of the Federal First Instance Court, and Firehiwot Samuel, the
president of the Supreme Court of SNNP region) deemed loyal to the clique
and
were duly appointed to investigate if there was ‘excess’ during the June
and November massacres, and who were thought to come out with reports
supporting the clique decided to defect rather than acquiesce to such an
expectation, causing a further blow. Add to this the recent defection
of a senior prosecutor (Alemayehu Zemedkun) who claimed to have decided
to do so rather than participate in the kangaroo trial of the
opposition leaders and one could see definite outlines of the developing
picture.

The cumulative effects of these events have made members of the
clique so nervous, that they have abandoned all pretenses of running the
country and have gone on all out campaign at home and abroad to recruit
sympathizers using all methods of enticement including, true to form,
tribal mobilization. The desperation to get any semblance of support from
the Diaspora is so great, that the vice prime minister (who also
happens to be the head of the Amhara branch of EPRDF,) abandoned his
responsibility of co-coordinating efforts to rescue and rehabilitate flood
victims back home, to tour the US and mobilize as many supporters or
sympathizers as possible by offering urban-land in some instances,
investment
opportunities and possible appointments in others. Gleaming through
reports of his US adventures, it becomes obvious that his deployment was a
total failure and a further confirmation, if any was needed, that
support for the clique is hard to come by and no amount of
enticement could make the clique acceptable to the great majority in
the Diaspora. In this regard one sees a resonance in the stand of
Ethiopians at home and abroad.

As discouraging as the domestic reality is to the clique, it can not
see much encouragement from its international sponsors either. Gone are
the days when Meles and his rogue buddies in the region were hailed as
the new breed of African leaders, renaissance men…or other accolades,
and are now recognized for what they truly are, petty dictators and
potentates. The problem with the West has always been, as a recent article
by the Economist, “Coddling Monsters has a price” indicates, the danger
their policy makers face when they befriend tyrants and how this later
complicates things when they want to extricate themselves after the
tyrants’ usefulness has ended. This truly is the case, despite occasional
claim of strategic partnership…etc, between Meles and his sponsors.
Even here, the fact that Meles’s biggest past promoter Tony Blair is being
pushed out of the premiership and the coming end of term for Bush
doesn’t bode well for the clique. The clique could be rest assured
that the coming Labor leader would have no incentive in propping up a
murderous tyrant who has shed all democratic trappings and is hanging
on power by brute force alone. The US president from whichever party it
hails can not be expected to continue the failed and unproductive
foreign policy of George Bush with regards to Ethiopia and the region,
especially after witnessing the result of the misguided policy in Somalia.

All this doesn’t seem to have been lost on the head of the clique who
of late has been heard lamenting about the failure of his underlings in
implementing the correct policy guidelines he laid down as being the
main reason people are against EPRDF! This Prime Minister of Ethiopia who
also happens to be the chief of TPLF who likes to speak with forked
tongues said as much in his opening remarks at the recent TPLF congress.
(Which by the way was apparently not attended by the brotherly leaders
of ANDM and OPDO even though, all the heads of the affiliated groupies
were there to extend their solidarity on yet another successful congress
and pay homage to the head of the clique!! Should we read anything into
this?)

The people of Ethiopia are totally convinced of the regimes tenuous
hold on power and that its final demise could not be too far off. What
seems to have caused panic, confusion and bewilderment in the camp of
the clique is not this evident reality amongst the general populace –
that has been well noted since the election -, but rather the doubt,
uncertainty fear and defection that is creeping into its camp and the belief
by this sector that indeed EPRDF’s rule is coming to an end sooner than
later.

Members of the clique, on their part, seem to be preparing for such
an eventuality by positioning some of their cronies as Ambassadors and
others as Counselors in some western capitals; sending of their children
to these same capitals under the guise of higher education; and the
sending of their spouses and close relatives under the guise of medical
treatment.

Along this, it is also useful to remember the report in the
international media a short while back, that money transfer from Ethiopia to
banks in Britain has shown a significant increase, as a sign that the
clique is also preparing itself financially for such an event.

While all these maneuvers are being executed by the Meles clique the
semi official newspaper Reporter’s public role appears to be to
incessantly plea for the TPLF to close ranks and mend its ways (going as far
as saying EPRDF’s enemy is EPRDF itself in one of its latest
Editorials) – as if there is enough time left to do that – to mollify the
fears
harbored by the loyal foot soldiers – to make them think that nothing
out of the ordinary is occurring – and to stop them from taking actions
that are right, timely and independent.

All these taken together might be disconcerting to people who
nonetheless are working within the regime, but who genuinely believe that
they
are doing all they can to better the lives of the masses of the
Ethiopian people. These civil servants and cadres are now realizing that
both
they and their cause have been betrayed by this ruling clique. These
people might believe and, are in fact encouraged by the members the
clique to believe, that their lot is tied to that of the clique and must be
committed to go all the way to the end – to the demise of the regime.

This, however, need not be so, and should definitely not be so. All
of the opposition political parties and groupings with no exception,
have consistently called on and encouraged the people who currently are
serving the regime, those that have no blood in their hands, and are thus
clean, to come and join the people’s ranks. It is never too late to do
so.

* The author is a retired educator residing in California. He can be reached at [email protected]