Ugandan peace process hangs by a thread
Oct 5, 2006 (GULU, Uganda) — A breakdown of trust between the Ugandan government and rebels weeks after signing a landmark truce has left both sides with their fingers on the trigger and talks to end one of Africa’s most intractable wars in jeopardy.
The Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) rebels signed a landmark ceasefire with the government in August that many hoped would stop a brutal 20-year insurgency that has killed tens of thousands and forced 1.7 million into squalid refugee camps.
Now the Ugandan army accuses the rebels of dispersing from assembly areas agreed under the truce and threatens to crush any LRA it finds in northern Uganda.
The LRA meanwhile accuses the army of surrounding their meeting points, poised for attack.
“If they attack us, we will defend ourselves. We still have our guns,” LRA deputy commander Vincent Otti told Reuters by satellite phone from the Sudan/Congo border on Wednesday.
The truce gave the rebels until late September to assemble in two areas in southern Sudan; one on the Congo border, where most of the LRA including Otti and leader Joseph Kony remain in their jungle hideouts, the other on the Uganda border.
Though they missed the deadline to assemble while peace talks continue in the south Sudanese capital, Juba, the Ugandan government has indicated it could be flexible.
“THROWING STONES AT A BEEHIVE”
An estimated 800 LRA fighters were gathered at the Owiny-Ki-Bul area, on the Ugandan border, but many are thought to have fled, fearing an offensive by the army.
“(LRA) are saying they are forced to disperse because they are uncomfortable. The UPDF (Uganda People’s Defence Forces) are deploying heavily around them,” said Norbert Mao, chairman of Gulu district, at the epicentre of the rebellion.
“The are throwing stones at a beehive, dispersing the bees who will swarm towards a vulnerable civilian population.”
The rebels are feared for their reputation of killing civilians, slicing off body parts and kidnapping children to use as fighters and sex slaves.
The army and observers fear the LRA only signed the truce in order to regroup after coming under pressure when they lost support from the Sudanese government in Khartoum.
“It’s a risk they are using this ceasefire to reorganise. It’s happened in the past,” said Father Carlos Rodriguez, a missionary campaigning for peace in northern Uganda.
That presents a dilemma for the army — put faith in the LRA and give them the chance to regroup or surround them and risk provoking the rebels into breaking the ceasefire.
The army said on Wednesday it would resume military operations against any LRA who have failed to assemble.
“There’s a military imperative: the army doesn’t want to let these guys join the other group (on the Congo border) or go back into Uganda. But if the UPDF open fire, the LRA will say it was a trap,” said a Western diplomat in Kampala.
“It could all happen by accident — you’ve got two groups of heavily armed men who deeply mistrust each other.”
POKER GAME
Breaking this tortuous game of poker will require building trust on both sides, but analysts say this can still happen.
“Should there be clashes, it doesn’t mean the talks are going to stop,” said Caty Clement, head of the International Crisis Group’s central Africa project.
But negotiating positions in Juba remain far apart, with delegates representing the LRA making political demands and the government saying it is giving the rebels a “soft landing,” warning that this is their last chance for survival.
“The government want the rebels to surrender at the negotiating table. But if you want to negotiate with someone, can you tell them: ‘You have no choice’?” said Paul Omach, political scientist at Kampala’s Makerere University.
Otti, Kony and three other commanders are wanted in the International Criminal Court in The Hague and say they won’t come out unless the indictments are dropped.
(Reuters)