Somali: A Situation Report
By Ali Osman
Oct 28, 2006 — If you have not been following the Somali tragicomedy in the last fifteen years you would have believed the so called “Somali crisis” or the sudden rise of the Somali Islamic Courts is an alarming to world peace. The media rhetoric and Ethiopian manufactured propaganda would have us to believe, the world has on its hands the next Taliban an African version of sort.
If you have been either misled or uninformed to the history and developments in Somalia, you would easily conclude the Islamic Courts is threat to the Horn of African and the only solution to the problem is to prevent, control, eliminate, and or fortify the current ineffective government as Ethiopia and US has chosen to do. If you are well informed about the situation of Somalia and intimately knew as the people who have endured the brunt of the massacres, looting, killings, raping, decimation of natural resources, you would conclude the Islamic Courts is the best and brightest Somalia have seen since the collapse of the government there in 1990’s.
How could the two groups be so far apart in their analysis of what is happening in Somalia? The answer might be surprising simple as how the two opposing views are using different data to come up with their own conclusions. We have been taught to get an input, process that input and come up with an output and reach conclusions based on that output. Certainly, if the input was the wrong data we would obtain a wrong output and subsequently reach a wrong conclusion.
What worries me the most is the outcome of the conclusion reached by the Ethiopian led group has two major erroneous in their input data and would without a doubt reach the wrong conclusion. This might lead to a wider African war not witnessed in the near African history; a war of religion which is ten folds deadly than the Rwandan genocide.
The first input data error is injected by Ethiopia which has an ulterior motive in courting the US to participate by creating an illusion that Ethiopia is fighting proxy war on terrorism on behalf of the US. Why Ethiopia would deceive the hand that feeds? It has to do with the government in Ethiopia is a dictatorship that brutally represses 70 million people, which majorities are Sunni Muslims who are yearning for democracy, freedom and human rights. Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Meles oversees a brutal regime that cracks down on dissent, including the killing of peaceful protesters and arrest and torture of political opposition leaders. In fact the Washington Post called Meles Zenawi the world’s worst dictator. The United States senate house International Affairs Committee unanimously passed a bill sanctioning Ethiopia for its violation of human rights and torturing and imprisoning dissidents.
In light of these developments the Ethiopian dictator was seeking an opportunity to make him self useful to the United States in order to get badly needed cash for his repressive regime. An opportunity presented itself in the form of Islamic Courts which he missed no beat in capitalizing on it.
The second motive of Ethiopia is the issue of the disputed territories of the Somali State (Ogaden). Ethiopia and Somalia has fought several wars over this land and Ethiopian dictator feels he is not ready to deal with another likely front if Somalia were to establish a functioning government. Therefore, Ethiopian Meles is determined to show the world the Islamic Courts are danger to world peace. The Ethiopian Prime Minister makes every effort to associate the indigenous Somali Islamic Courts to his own Ethiopian based Al-Itahad group. He banks on the fact that the Western world would always side with Ethiopia against what he betrays as Islamists bent on destroying ancient Christian Ethiopia. Off course it is far from the truth, because the Islamic courts have shown and have repeatedly assured they have no grandiose plan or desire to size a land from Ethiopia or cross to international recognized borders or the fact that the majority of Ethiopians are Muslims which have more affinity with Islam than Christianity.
The second error was injected by the irrational Islamic Phobia that developed after New York tragedy in September 11th, the United States and Europe in general have become very suspicious anything with “Islamists” and cannot expect the best of Islamists regardless of whether they are a mainstream and possible peace partner such as the Islamic Courts or nihilists and doomsday sects like Alqaa’eda. This Islamic Phobia along with Ethiopian well funded Lobby group in Washington have misled the US to support the ill advised and failed covert operations in which US supported the despised and hated warlords.
The US still to this day continues to seek this failed policy in contracting Mercenary private military contractors along with Ethiopia and Uganda to carry out clandestine operations against the Islamic Courts which clearly represent the popular uprising of the Somali people.
The Somali popular uprising supported by more than 17 million civilians, religious Ulamaa umbrellas, tribal chiefs, ex-military officers, the former Somali armed forces, the former Somali intelligence agencies, the business community, the schools, universities and colleges, local NGO’s, the Somali business community and all Islamic nations and Arab countries. One does not need to be Scientist or CIA analyst to see such a futile effort will end in similar faith as the US invasion of Cuba the Bay of Pigs or the defeat of United States-backed French Union in Dien Bien Phu. There is an earie similarities betweent the seige of the French garrison led by General Navarre at that time and what is happening now in Baidao, the seat of the Warlord government led by Colonel Abdullahi Yusuf in Somalia.
The verdict is still out whether the Islamic Courts would win and render the Ethiopian led occupation to Dien Bien Phu or whether the Islamic Courts would suffer similar faith as the popular Chilean government led by Salvador Allende in which the CIA replaced coup de tat with the Pinochet dictatorship.
The other group that supports the Islamic courts based their input data the fact that, they have witnessed the tragedy of civil war, have witnessed the failure of more than thirteen failed attempts to reconcile the warring factions and more than three transitional governments that all ended in failure. They have witnessed the rise of warlords with no conscience or humanity to speak off. They have witnessed Somalia being cut into pieces and ever decreasing pies and independent Emirates. They have witnessed the cat and mouse game of Ethiopia and other neighboring countries to divide and rule.
They have witnessed the dumping of nuclear, cyanide and non-bio-degradable chemical wastes in Somali by Italian mafia and Chinese Triads with an alarming non curable cancer rates. They have witnessed an entire generations of children with no schooling what so ever coming to age. They have realized that their country is being burned and destroyed right in front of their eyes. They have seen the decimation of the youth by virulent “Khat” narcotics imported from Ethiopia and Kenya by spineless Somalis and foreigners. They see hopelessness, skyrocketing infectious diseases and famine. They have witnessed the birth of dangerous gangs committing unimaginable crimes.
They heard Somalis in refugees smuggled and dumped in the ocean, washing off foreign shores like seaweed. They have witnessed Somalis abused in neighboring countries, some killed simply because they are Somalis. They see Somali poor children ending up in the child sex trade. They know, Somali kidneys are the cheapest in the black market.
Above all, they have realized no one is coming for the rescue. They have realized as the Somali saying goes “Dhaan Uma Maqna”. Therefore, any Somali especially in the South with any humanity left in him or her whether they are die hard Muslim or concerned Secular liberal came to the conclusion that there will be no solution coming from the Warlords and their affiliates. They realized tribalism would not be an answer or program that can bring together the different and divergent clans and tribes. They realized the only uniting factor is Islam the bedrock faith of all Somalis.
They started to form a specific tribal based Islamic Courts one at a time to restore order, reconcile and mediate between warring groups, to protect properties and businesses. As each court started to function and the local villagers realized the semblance of order and peace. They have come to their side to protect, to share information with them, and to assist them in restoring the order.
The warlords realized their grip on power is dwindling; they have all made their pilgrimage to Addis Ababa for their customary help and direction. The answer from Addis Ababa happened to be this time, let us pay a visit to the US embassies in Nairobi and Addis Ababa and probably the American base in Djibouti to sell false information that they should be given monthly stipends to enable to kill or capture the so called “Terrorist Islamic Courts”. The warlords named themselves conveniently the Alliance against the terrorisms. Sadly, the most powerful nation on Earth the United States has been duped by the same men who have been terrorizing the Somali nation for fifteen years. A horrible injustice and gross neglect has been committed against the Somalis everywhere by few warlord thugs that are determined to extinguish any glimmer of hope for Somalia.
When the Islamic Courts realized their hard work over the years is at stake, they all united to repel this present danger to their hard work. The people being fully aware the deeds of both the Islamic Courts and the warlords have rallied behind the Islamic Courts and the warlord has been knocked down one by one.
Today as though the world has been wakening from a long amnesia, they are asking where these guys come from and who is supporting them. Well, the Tsunami started from Mogadishu slums and is supported by grass root movement with over 17 million people and everyone in its path gets knocked down. Today, unlike other revolutions they have waved olive branches to anyone who cares to listen including Ethiopia and United States but as the momentum gets stronger if their call of reconciliation, neighborly relations goes unheeded, a regional war is inevitable, sadly that is a war forced on them.
* The author is a Somali citizen currently living in United States. He can be reached at [email protected]