Uganda’s peace talks, a challenge for Sudan’s Salva Kiir

By Isaiah Abraham

Nov 15, 2006 — The Vice-President mediation efforts for Ugandans in Juba are his possible political undoing. Why? Because of internal and external intrigues and implications surrounding the said peace talk right from day one. Besides there is angst mood among regional and international players as to who is to play what and on whose terms. I will elaborate later here. Our leaders in Juba exude confidence to bring peace to Ugandans. That was a brilliant idea; the very peace that has eluded everyone. Every peace loving person by a glimpse of look can’t close his/her eyes without offering and a prayer to the suffering people of Uganda. It is a sad if not grim situation where any attempt or single effort directed towards this noble goal counts. We hope that one day; the smile of Ugandans in the North is anything to be credited to our Dr. Riek Machar Teny, the Chief Mediator in particular and our Southern Sudanese leaders in general. Someone in the know however knows that this is easy wished that done. The two parties in the talks have little iota of trust left between them.

This is true when the Ugandan President used the word ‘if’ while addressing Juba Parliament in October 2006. This is an overloaded noun! He was at a point; he is as plain as saying that if it was him, the talks wouldn’t have taken place. So, if that is the message, then our leaders in Juba must treat this process with utmost vigilance! Our leaders here must avoid pushing an agreement that must not be implemented by the parties in conflict. This is one key area of this writing. This line of argument brings up another important area of ground work fallacy. Our Sudanese mediators presupposed that their Ugandan counterparts have short memory as they do. Far from it!

There are indicators that the peace agreement everyone yearns for our brother in Uganda might take eon period or never come at all. The reason has been poor confidence-building mechanism. Kampala looks at the talk as something which is being forced on their throat by the Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS). Juba mediators never read the mood of the international community either. To date, there is no such immunity from persecution for top rebels leaders wanted in The Hague on war crimes by the International Criminal Court (ICC). This is not a simple question of evasion and survival. The gentlemen in question are wanted criminals and likely to face music of justice whether there would be peace or not. Who is fooling who then? Those rebel leaders are not lunatics to put ropes on their own necks. Believe me; they are not coming out alive from the forest of Eastern Congo whatsoever! Therefore it’s futile to think about peace before you think about the ICC ruling!

But who are really beneficiaries of this peace? Of course the Ugandans, then the region at large. Is Kampala aware about its responsibilities in this peace process? Does it have confidence in the new administration in Juba? Yes they do. I believe this is a mistaken concept on the part of our leaders in Juba. They (our leaders) must abuse this or overdue anything against the will of Ugandan Government. Kampala wants Juba to exhaust its efforts and indeed this is healthy in our relationship with them. Kampala has strongly demonstrated its maturity for having refused to show off in the light of its current presence. The Ugandan People Defense Forces (UPDF) has made significant territorial and military gains against the rebels of the Lord Resistance Army (LRA). They have pushed them away from their bases in Northern Ugandan and it was just a matter of time before the rebels could surrender individually or in groups. The domestic and international community behind them thanks to rebels’ atrocities against unarmed civilians. The regional political development such as the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) for the Sudan and the establishment of Congo Transitional Government in Kinshasa has lessened pressure on Kampala. Such a government would have been tempted to work away from any weaker partner in the talk.

As for Southern Sudanese our government in Juba made good overtures to bring about peace and stability to our citizen. They had wanted to narrow down their daunting challenges so to concentrate on few others. There are different fronts and urgent issues at hand. Among them is the stand off between the NCP and the SPLM on pending issues in the agreement. Others are internal issues of re-organization, institutional, legal and political setup as well as social amenities badly needed by our people. Therefore the GOSS was obliged to try whatever possible that could bring about any change in the lives of its populous. This intention shouldn’t be misconstrued to portray our government as if it is on its knees begging the LRA to stop killing its people. The presence gallant SPLA forces is a motivated force, well equipped and dressed than it has been before. This force is capable of making LRA a past tense within a stint of no time!

So, if that is the case why did they have to spend a lot of resources and time on such a talk? The answer again here is related to the perceived assumption by our leaders that perhaps peace for Uganda is peace for Southern Sudan. Now that assumption is withering a way quickly because of bad judgment on the side of our leaders. The person who is in charged of the whole caboodle is our Vice-President Dr. Machar Teny.

This man has courted a situation that would haunt him or cost him dearly. Given the trait behavior of indifference by H. E the President, he will push the blame on him. That is if the talks flop; and indeed they are likely to. There are voices against the Vice President handling of the talk. He is accused of single handedly stage managed the process; that he often kept Southern Parliament or Kampala always in the dark. That he has self willed the process and censorious at times. That his mediating team poorly manages the process and the finances. That he is too credulous and has abdicated his constitutional duties as second most important person in the land to wander after rebels under precarious bushes of Southern Sudan, when in fact he should have tried delegation of some duties to others. Whether the said issues are true or not, nobody takes anything nowadays for nothing.

But on the personality of the Vice President the author has two incidences that slow him down from pulling judgment or prematurely put off this man out of his mind. One situation was during the merger between the then Sudan People Defense Force (SPDF) and the Sudan People Liberation Army (SPLA) in 2002. There was a feeling that since the two Movements are equal players, the join structure should be alternated. That means, Dr. Garang has to be deputized by Dr. Machar. Mr. Kiir’s team vowed to stop this hush-hush if it comes to the open. On the other hand, Dr. Machar team led by Mr. Simon Kun Puoch made the same, to kill him (Dr. Machar) rather if he ever backs down. Dr. Machar proved to them that he is not only interested in power but well fare of his people. This is incredible! The second situation is immediately after the death our great icon Dr. John Garang. He could have complicated matters if he had shown interest in that seat. It’s called selfless. Anyway am not marketing him.

For the Ugandan talk, what he could have done best in that situation is to go back to the drawing board before everything could come down tumbling. Misplaced priorities if you like demand change of strategies. He ought to involve as much players as possible. I mean the UN, the IGAD, East African community, the Arab League, the European Union and of course African Union. Its is a blunder to work in isolation without the blessing and support of any of the above mentioned bodies.. Leaving them behind or allowing them to play a second position doesn’t make sense at all. Economically, the new government in Juba has little resources to manage huge international burden. That means, our Vice-President must not just fleece Bank of Southern Sudan but instead he should look other sources to foot the bill on these talks. Also, he got to move together with his legislative assembly as matters of spending and legality are obligatory duties of the legislation.

Further, the Vice-President has to give Ugandans enough time and space to cultivate trust among each other & themselves. The diplomatic defeatist under which LRA only female delegate refused to shake the hand of President Museveni is so primitive to understate the description. This came about because of separation of the two teams during & outside the talk. Lack of engagement for both sides in matters related to themselves and their country is another issue. If the Vice President failed in this test, he will fail to get our nomination in 2008/2011 for the Presidency if the incumbent just decides to retire early or defeated/beaten in the preliminaries by him or others.

* The author is a Southern Sudanese based in Juba. He can be reach on [email protected]