Somalia’s war highlights US diplomacy failure

Dec 27, 2006 (WASHINGTON) — US support for Ethiopia’s incursion into Somalia highlights another failure by Washington to use diplomacy rather than military might in dealing with Islamist threats to its moderate allies, analysts say.

The State Department defended its support for the Ethiopian offensive by saying the operation was necessary to halt aggression by Islamist forces that had been seizing control of territory from the Western-backed transitional government in Somalia.

But critics say the dramatic escalation of the conflict underscores the failure of the administration of President George W. Bush to follow through on efforts to reach a negotiated solution to the crisis between the weak moderate government and the Islamic Courts movement which now controls much of the country.

“The US is pursuing a military-only policy in Somalia that is devoid of any peacebuilding elements,” said John Prendergast, an Africa expert with the International Crisis Group.

Prendergast said US diplomats were “conspicuously absent” from the most recent diplomatic initiative, led by the European Union earlier this month, to revive power-sharing talks between the two sides.

“The result is that both Ethiopia and the Islamic Courts believe the US is supporting a military solution in Somalia, which further inflames tensions and makes peace a distant dream,” he said.

The United States has had a troubled history in the strategic horn of Africa nation since the 1991 ouster of strongman Mohammed Siad Barre left the country in the chaotic grip of rival warlords.

A US-led attempt to end militia control of Mogadishu amid a catastrophic humanitarian situation in 1992 failed after 18 US troops were killed in an incident memorialized in the book and film “Black Hawk Down.”

More than a decade later and as part of its “war on terror,” the CIA changed tack and began funding the same Mogadishu warlords in a failed effort to keep the rapidly growing Islamic Courts movement from capturing the capital.

When that backfired earlier this year, the State Department took over Somalia policy and supported an on-again-off-again dialogue between the Islamists and the transitional government.

But the department’s lead official on Africa, Assistant Secretary of State Jendayi Frazer, pulled back from that effort in recent months, claiming that Al-Qaeda cells from East Africa had taken control of the Islamic Courts, marginalizing moderates and making further negotiations impossible.

While other US officials and experts have contested the extent of Al-Qaeda influence over the Courts, diplomacy died away amid a broader administration refusal to engage with Islamic radicals in Middle East hotspots.

“There wasn’t a robust US diplomatic effort to make those talks happen,” said Ken Menkaus, an expert on Somalia at Davidson College in North Carolina.

As Islamist control spread, isolating the transitional government in the town of Baidoa, the US early this month backed the deployment of a regional peacekeeping force for Somalia.

But Islamist threats to attack the peacekeepers, due to come primarily from Uganda, kept that plan from unfolding.

In the meantime Ethiopia, a Christian-dominated neighbor with a very large Muslim and ethnic Somali population, began providing military support to the transitional government for fear an Islamist takeover would fuel upheaval in its own restive border regions.

While Washington initially refrained from publicly supporting the move by Ethiopia, a close ally with US military advisers training its troops, the State Department on Tuesday backed their offensive.

“Ethiopia has genuine security concerns with regard to developments within Somalia and has provided support at the request of legitimate governing authority,” spokesman Gonzalo Gallegos said.

The US hope appears to be that Ethiopia’s show of might will convince the Islamists they cannot gain control of the county militarily and get them to return to negotiations.

“If the two, having bloodied one another’s noses this week and maybe next week, are able to stop and step back, it may provide a window for diplomatic intervention,” said Menkaus.

Otherwise, Ethiopia looks certain to become bogged down in a “jihadist” guerrilla war likely to spread into its own territory, said Menkaus.

“That’s very dangerous for Ethiopia and for the whole region,” he said.

(AFP)