Ethiopian Opposition’s stand on the war in Somalia
By Agere Aleme
THE CRUX OF THE MATTER
January 5, 2007 –Since 1995, when the United Nations and the United States withdrew their humanitarian mission, Somalia has remained as a failed state leaving the warring Somali clans to sort things out for themselves. For more than a decade, Somalia was run by warlords under the barrel of the guns and the world started to eventually witness that the ungovernable and lawless Somalia state became the breeding ground for a conflict that crumpled radical Islam against Ethiopia, and ultimately the rest of the region in the Horn of Africa.
When an Islamic militia first established a foothold in Somalia by capturing the capital of Mogadishu in June 2006, its actions over the next few months made it clear that Islamic extremists had taken their quest for a radical Muslim state, based entirely on Shaaria Law. The prime objective of the Union of Islamic Courts Council (UICs) since it seized Mogadishu in June 2006 till it was ousted by the end of December 2006 has been to expand its fundamentalist influence into neighboring Ethiopia, Kenya and Djibouti. As the Islamists captured and temporarily ruled Southern Somalia, with the help given by Imams brought from Egypt, Pakistan and Afghanistan, they indoctrinated school children and pushed them into the militant “al Shebab,” whose ruthless leaders were growing increasingly close to al Qaeda. Their end goal was to form a Muslim caliphate in Greater Somalia under whose banner their reach would extend throughout the Horn and into the rest of Central, Western, and Southern Africa. In this regard, the Islamist wing of OLF was ready to embrace this new schooling and spread it within and across Ethiopia. Indeed and very truly indeed, OLF has been actually on the spot to support UICs struggle in Southern Somalia. When the Islamists continued to make advances throughout the country, the Somali interim government retreated to the town of Baidoa, with protection from the armed forces of Ethiopia.
Meanwhile AFD, OLF and some more opposition groups publicly claimed that what has recently been happening in Somalia as a proxy war between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Others like AFD and OLF even claimed that it was a proxy war with the United States using Ethiopia as its pawn. To believe this is to ignore the fact that the Islamic Courts’ objective was to replace Somalia’s secular government in Baidoa so that they could claim to rule all of Somalia. Ethiopia, alone among Somalia’s neighbors, responded to the Transitional Federal Government’s appeal for help.
While there were competing motives for the recent conflict in Somalia, it is certainly not, as the Islamists claim, an instance of Ethiopian aggression with the tacit blessing of the United States. To the contrary, Ethiopia, along with the African Union and the international community, pressed both sides for dialogue. But the Islamic Courts, covertly and overtly funded and armed by Eritrea, Egypt, Iran and supporters of a radical Islamic state in the Horn of Africa, declared a jihad on Ethiopia and attacked the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia’s residence in Baidoa. Following this declaration suit, as late as on January 4 2007, Ayman al-Zawahri, deputy to al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, in his message to Somali Islamists said the following: “You must ambush, mine, and raid and (carry out) martyrdom campaigns so that you can wipe them out”. As happened in Iraq and Afghanistan, when the world’s strongest power was defeated by the campaigns of the Mujahideen troops going to heaven, so its slaves shall be defeated on the Muslim lands of Somalia.”
All along, Eritrea’s Shaabia hoped to use the conflict in Somalia to destabilize its archenemy Ethiopia, while Islamists and OLF jointly hoped to upset the delicate balance between Ethiopia’s 75 million peoples, evenly divided between Orthodox Christian and Muslims.
Some in the West argued that clan rivalry would defeat the Islamic Courts, but each victory brought them more support, both outside and inside Somalia. Others pointed out that the Islamists had imposed order on chaotic Mogadishu, ignoring the fact that they had done so at gun-point. The Arab League had increasingly sided with the Islamists, and many warned that if Ethiopia intervened on behalf of the Transitional Government of Somalia it would fuel a wider regional war.
They were all wrong. The joint Ethiopia’s and the Somali Government’s surprisingly easy victories have given Somalia — and the West — a second chance to get things right. The countries located in the Horn of Africa and the wider world cannot afford to lose this golden opportunity to bring peace and order in Somalia for the sake of co-habitation and regional development. It has also open the breathing space for Meles Zenawi’s government to contemplate on how to amend all the internal political mistakes committed thus far and looks for likely outlets to the sea for its land-locked 75 million populations inside Ethiopia.
IMMEDIATE STEPS TO BE TAKEN:
Based on the above discourse, the following eight points are immediate solutions to be considered in post-conflict Somalia and inside Ethiopian politics.
(1) More peacekeeping missions must be brought into Somalia immediately in order to release the Ethiopian army for its return home.
(2) International relief agencies should quickly be stationed in Somalia in order to enhance shipments of food into the towns and villages now under the Transitional Government’s control. (3) The United Nations, the African Union, with logistic help from the United States and the European Union, should immediately deploy peacekeepers to reinforce the Transitional government.
(4) The region under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IAD) should prepare Somalia for a transition to a broad based government that excludes the Islamic militants but includes the moderates from all of Somalia’s clans.
(5) This recently opened window of transition from conflict to peaceful resolution in Somalia must quickly be stabilized by starting the efforts right from Mogadishu and stakeholders on the Horn of Africa affairs should take the lead in bringing together the international community in a concerted and sustained effort to turn Somalia into a viable state.
(6) The United Nations approved African peacekeeping mission must be brought immediately on the ground. Indeed the mission’s presence will certainly dampen the Islamists bravado and allow Ethiopian troops to withdraw.
(7) Strong financial and logistical support should be given to Somalia and the countries in the Horn of Africa by the U.S.A., the European Union and other International communities. These supportive actions will definitely prevent Somalia and the Horn of Africa from becoming a safe haven for al Qaeda and home grown terrorism in Africa.
(8) For Ethiopians it is a just demand asking for its own access to the sea. With its 75 million peoples living landlocked makes the population like living in a closed house without any window or doors to the outer world. Meles Zenawi can take the credit for himself if he resolves this left over homework now. Naturally, realizing this action will pave a pathway for him to obtain admiration as well as forgiveness for his hitherto committed internal political mistakes.
Each opposition party or group in Ethiopia must see its activism as shaping a better environment for the younger generation of Ethiopia. In this respect, Opposition is a natural choice because it becomes more committed to helping those who had not caught-up with the rest of the well-off Ethiopians. Since olden days, politics has been a fixture in any regime, any system, any dynasty, any era. To me, politics is just like prostitution, a game that will never die! Local politics has been dominated too much and too long by any government in power. Poor Ethiopians do not have the chance to translate their desire for political competition into reality as the TPLF has an unfair system that keeps itself in power and difficult for opposition groups to break through. Opposition parties must also self-reflect on what they are doing. Sad to say, there are opposition candidates who are opportunists and spoil the quality of the Opposition camp. They are not all at credible and yet they are fielded, so how to convince the people to vote for you?
Also, educated and young Ethiopians are selfish and unwilling to step out to support the opposition. They must understand that the Opposition has no means to takeover the government. TPLF is undoubtedly doing some degree of good jobs, but you need an Opposition to check on them and ensure that they remain efficient and responsible to the Ethiopian people. Ethiopian politics is unlike the one in United States of America, where the opposition is credible enough to replace the ruling party anytime.
MAJOR OPPOSITION PARTIES IN ETHIOPIA AND STRATEGIES TO IMPROVE THEM
Major opposition parties are actually hopeless after all these years of political transformation going on inside Ethiopia. As far as the opposition groups are concerned I find many Ethiopians simply caught-up with sentimental affection and romantic feelings towards a given political party or group of their liking rather than looking into the matter from broader nationalist, regional and global perspectives.
The opposition groups always show tendency of unhappiness about any positive achievements being made by the Ethiopian people. Just for the sake of opposition most, if not all, remain as known clients, puppets and extended arms of the Eritrean dictator Issayas Afeworki and side always with enemies of Ethiopia.
I am sure by now that they are seriously mourning the victory of the gallant Ethiopian Defense forces out of sheer defiance and long-standing anarchist outlook. This is sad to know.
Particularly Kinijit North America’s and Kinijit in Diaspora problems are compounded after it unwisely entangled itself with the so-called “Alliance for Democracy (AFD).” The confusion and anger that followed the announcement of AFD had completely sucked the life out of the strong Kinijit movement world-wide. The way to get back to the pre-AFD status has to begin with the unequivocal disassociation of Kniijit from AFD as the latter has not shown interest to rectify the glaring discrepancies in its bylaws and memorandum of understanding. Kinijit’s association with AFD has completely derailed the struggle off its base and relegated the focus of the struggle, which includes the freeing of the elected leaders from prison, democracy; and the rule of law in Ethiopia off the radar screen for many Ethiopians in the Diaspora. At this stage, AFD cannot be redeemed but to be abandoned. If it is to refocus its efforts on the most important issues facing Ethiopia and rehabilitate itself within the Diaspora Ethiopian communities, then Kinijit has to disassociate itself from AFD.
A saying goes: “A belt fastened while running will come undone while still running”. Above all the organized political arms in existence, and which always does things meticulously as a political organization, EPDRF knows how to dismantle such bundle and in the end what we see is that OLF,ONLF,AFD and their master Shaabia came under severe blow, a blow which will never revive and thus the best way for those of us who feel like we are concerned about justice and democracy need to embrace ideas which will allow us to retain our Ethiopia; while OLF still remains determined to succeed, the new political order in Somalia is daring and contemplating to be part of Ethiopia and EPDRF is working hard to make Ethiopia more stable.
PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS FOR CHANGE
Firstly, many opposition parties field as many number of candidates as they can throw up. So they take in all sorts of fly-by-night people in order to fill up the seats. These people are not your genuine politicians who want to do good for the people. They come out to contest just to satisfy their ego and make a name for themselves. We need sincere, committed and determined opposition candidates, not them.
Secondly, many opposition parties criticize and attack the policies of the TPLF without providing any good solutions or alternative suggestions. What is the point? The voters are getting educated and they want to see practical suggestions and sensible ideas from opposition candidates. Opposition groups must learn not to criticize for the sake of criticizing or to oppose for the sake of opposing alone. They should take rational stand and call a spade a spade when and if it is correct to say so. Above all, the opposition groups seriously need to do their homework and present intelligent arguments to convince the voters that they are capable of improving or even altering the status quo in the current system.
Thirdly, opposition parties are too greedy, partisan, hate-mongering, and tribal-oriented and try to ‘chop’ too many constituencies for their respective parties. Instead of working with fellow opposition parties as partners to share the pie and attack the TPLF on a strategic front, they want ‘face’ by contesting in as many constituencies as possible, even if it was beyond their resources. Such ‘closed’ mindsets and hate-filled political attitude must change; else they lose the confidence of the Ethiopian people who may eventually turn emphatic, apathy-filled and politico-phobic. They should hold on to the discipline of working in one or two constituencies only and walk the grounds thoroughly. They should adopt a focused but hard impact. The part they belong to must create the environment for passion, brains and determination in politics that can create the political awakening among the next generation.
Youngsters nowadays are not interested in politics and find political parties unattractive. Therefore few will join and help peoples’ interests, and it may be a very long process.
* The author is a freelance Consultant on Conflict Resolution, Good Governance and Humanitarian Support issues. He can be reached at [email protected]