Somalia’s chance for new beginning ‘slipping away’

By Ahmed Osman

Jan 31, 2007 — Somalia has suffered from civil war, regional insecurity and international interference in the last sixteen years. As Ethiopian troops prepared to withdraw from Somalia, the deputy chairman of the African Union warned that the opportunity to forge a new beginning in the country after years of war and chaos was slipping away.

But while the international community argues over whether the entry of an African “stabilisation force” should come before or after the TFG has attracted broader support, Mogadishu is fast becoming more volatile. Somali people enjoying peace and tranquility in the last six months of United Islamic Courts ruling were reminded the rocket propelled mortar.

Mr Mazimhaka said there had as yet been no clear commitment from outside the continent to fund an 8,000-strong AU peacekeeping mission. The mission to which only Uganda and Malawi have so far pledged troops is intended to plug the gap once Ethiopia withdraws. Further, the international community must take advantage the recent window of opportunity to help Somalia to govern itself, rejoin the international community, and endure stability for the whole country and to be able to look its future where peace and democracy can flourish in Somalia. Somalia had been unique pastoral democracy in 1960’s before the regime of civilian had been overthrown.

International pressure on Somalia’s interim government to include defeated Islamists in talks over the country’s future is paramount and decisive in this crucial moment of Somali history. The US and EU appear to have singled out Sheikh Sheriff Ahmed, one of the main leaders of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU), which held sway over much of southern Somalia last year, as potentially central to the country’s stability in the aftermath of Ethiopia’s invasion last month.

European Union foreign ministers offered to provide €15m ($19m, £10m) towards the AU mission, but are insisting the Somali government first forges a more viable alliance from among the warring factions within the country, has to reinstall the sacked Speaker, Sharif, and talks directly to the moderate Islamist.

Their primary concern is to prevent Somalia, which has been without a functioning government since the overthrow of Mohammed Siad Barre as president in 1991, evolving into a haven for international terrorist networks amid the chaos of warlord rule. Both the EU and US appear to believe there is an opportunity to drive a wedge between adherents of Somalia’s traditional Sufi Islam, such as Sheikh Sheriff, and jihadist militants influenced by more extreme and puritanical forms of Islam from the Gulf.

Michael Rassenberger, the US ambassador to Kenya, took the unusual step of meeting Sheikh Sheriff in Nairobi after he had handed himself into Kenyan custody.

Nothing emerged from the talks, but an embassy official said the US believed that if he renounced “violence and extremism”, Sheikh Sheriff could provide a “positive contribution to dialogue” in Somalia. In addition, the official said, “They do not believe he is an al-Qaeda operative. They believe he has demonstrated moderate tendencies,” . For example, Jendayi Frazer, assistant secretary of state for African affairs said .” The United States believes that the key to long-term stability in Somalia now lies in a process of inclusive dialogue and reconciliation — a Somali to Somali dialogue.”

Horn of Africa expert, ICG’s project director David Mozersky , has also emphasized that failure to grasp this opportunity would mean an all-too familiar story line for Somalia of factional fighting and fractured government.

The transitional government certainly has to overcome the impression that it is simply a foreign-backed entity. In order to prevent a reversion to the clan-based political divisions and to maintain its political legitimacy, the transitional government needs to engage the primary political actors, including clan leaders, warlords, and, according to Miss Frazer, the moderate elements of the disbanded Islamic Courts Union.

Nevertheless, the signs of unwillingness of TFG administration are discouraging so now all the eyes are on warlord Yusuf if he can deliver that or not.

Since the government arrived from dusty city of Baidbo to capital city Mogadishu and took the residence of presidency Villa Somalia installed by Ethiopian forces things are getting where it was before 2005.

Unless the TFG takes advantage of the recent opportunity and reconcile with Somalis to stabilize the country, will never succeed by the diplomatic shuttling from one country to another or whatever recognition they may gain from international countries.

Unpopular government of Ethiopia (EPRDF), who lost the 2005 election, killed hundreds unarmed innocent demonstrators, jailed thousands his own people and refused to solve through dialogue and reconcile with the oppositions are the primary advisers for TFG

That is way that the TFG starts instead of reconciliation with Marshal Law, killing, refuse to reconcile, jailing human right activist, shutting the free media and impeaching who ever they thing are against them in the parliament, including the Speaker of the House and disarming by force to create a supremacy of one clan dictatorship in Somalia

The one ethic supremacy, dictatorship, and undemocratic government in Ethiopia do not work in Somalia. Somalis has guns and fought for 16th years for democracy, liberty, freedom of speech and fair government.

Therefore, unless international and regional government put pressure on the TFG to make inclusive government and withdraw the occupiers forces completely from Somalia and create better environment for peacekeepers that are due to arrive in the country, it does not help to make stable whatever number peace keeps in the ground.

In the beginning, Horn of Africa experts thought that a broad consensus is emerging that the primary challenge in stabilising Somalia is a political and the TFG has to create the environment in which peacekeeping can succeed and to do that it has to be in dialogue with the former leaders of the [Islamist-backed] courts and the constituencies that supported. The lasting solution of Somali people have to be home grown approach unlike the one is parachuted from sky of Ethiopian style.

* The author is a Somali. He can be reached at [email protected]