Uganda growing geopolitically while neighbors crumble

By Steve Paterno

Feb 14, 2007 — What is behind Uganda ’s geopolitical influence if one is bothered to ask? By all geopolitical accounts, measures, analyses, and comparisons, Uganda is by far insignificant. Population wise, Uganda is estimated to be 28 million people. Given other factors such as HIV-AIDS, the population is drastically affected as this resulting into high mortality rates and lower growth rates, especially on younger age group who will be responsible to maintain the country’s manpower. Out of this remaining population, only about a million of Ugandans will be eligible to serve in the military. And those in the military are not the best either, given their historical records. As of 2005, Uganda estimated expenditure for military is 2.2% of its GDP, an insignificant amount to upgrade and maintain a modern military of twenty first century capabilities. Matter of fact, Uganda lacks a viable air force let alone of a navy or an elite commando fighting force. To prove its military weakness, an internal destabilizing forces which include rebels, tribal warriors, and armed gangs are constantly creating problems to the Ugandan military.

Speaking in terms of geopolitical power, Uganda is geographically tiny making it geo-strategically vulnerable to both internal and external threats. Any internal destabilization in one part of the country such as the rebellion in the North, cattle rustling in the East, insurgency in the West, or armed gangs in the Bunganda region, the country will be put into standstill, because such areas cover significant portion of the country relative to the entire geographical coverage of the country.

On the external front, Uganda even looks more geo-strategically measurable. In the north, seats Sudan , arguably the largest country on the continent of Africa . In the west, Uganda is faced with the Democratic Republic of Congo, a country that with no doubt is the third largest in the continent of Africa . And of course, in the East, Uganda is covered by Kenya. While in the South, Tanzania the largest country in East Africa shields Uganda along the Lake Victoria limiting its stretch only along the water’s edge. Now, how and where can Uganda pokes its nose among these giants? And why even make an attempt?

Added to those geographical vulnerabilities due to tiny seize, Uganda is also a landlocked country, meaning that it has no access to the coastlines, which is vital for transportations of exports and imports. This will then imply that Uganda would have to rely for other countries for water transportations. However, given the history of Ugandan’s activities in the region, the country that Uganda would have to rely on will unfortunately be the one that Uganda either invaded, occupied, attacked and killed its citizens, or provoked it with aggression, because thus far Uganda has done all these to its neighboring countries and is continuing to do so today. All the Ugandan creates and leaves is negative sentiments.

In the past, Uganda invaded Tanzania and fortunately got beaten back immediately where Tanzania actually managed to occupy Uganda on a temporary basis as a result of fighting back Ugandan aggression. Uganda never messed with Tanzania ever since. As Uganda is busy invading other countries and causing wars, Tanzania instead engages in negotiating peace and becoming home for prosecuting the war criminals.

With the tiny neighboring Rwanda , Uganda did not only invade it but is trying to colonize this tiny neighboring country under a false pretext of Bantu Kingdom , whatever that means. Good enough, Rwanda is struggling to free itself from Uganda ’s hegemony, but that does not suggest that Uganda will walk completely away from that country. May be a more fierce struggle will do it.

In Kenya , Uganda is killing the Kenyan pastoralists along Uganda and Kenyan borders. In several occasions Uganda is threatening to intervene into Kenyan fragile politics that is marred by tribal allegiance and high level of corruption. Who really knows what will happen to that country if Uganda started to meddle into its internal politics. Perhaps Uganda will have a handy ally of the Kenyan Lou population to cause just enough chaos into Kenya . Despite all the killings of Kenyan pastoralists and a threat of aggression by Uganda , Kenya by far remains Uganda ’s biggest trading partner. And the question is, Why?

In the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Uganda People Defense Force (UPDF) invaded, occupied, and robbed the Congo of its vast natural resources. A United Nations mandate to evict Uganda out of the Democratic Republic of Congo is not enough to throw Ugandans out of the country. First, the mandate allowed the Uganda to actually occupy Congolese territorial sovereignty that was under Uganda ’s control on a temporary basis. And then, by a turn of events Ugandan rebels, the Lord Resistance Army (LRA) replaced the UPDF to reoccupy parts of the Democratic Republic of Congo, and it is not going to end there because the UPDF is vowing to reoccupy that country pretty soon. And the question is, why the geopolitical insignificant Uganda is capable of such act of aggression to a seemingly powerful country like the Democratic Republic of Congo?

Sudan , the largest country lying on the north of Uganda is currently the one country that suffers the most of Uganda ’s aggressions and occupations. Sudan by virtue lost its sovereignty to Uganda . To prove to the World that Sudan lost its territorial sovereignty to the Ugandans, the supposedly authorities in Sudan started to involve in some strategically flaw and contradicting moves just to give Sudanese sovereignty away. The first move is to officially invite both the Ugandan People Defense Force (UPDF) and the Ugandan rebel Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) to occupy Sudan sovereign territory. Fortunately, this move results into peace in Northern Uganda and unfortunately it results into war in South Sudan as the battles once fought in Northern Uganda is imported into the South Sudan , and is now being waged in South Sudan . As Wal-Mart, the biggest retail store in the world is extending its supper stores into places like Russia , in Africa , countries are busy trading their own wars with one another. One will just wonder.

In a shifting of roles, the government of South Sudan took over the role of the regime in Khartoum soon after it took the control of South Sudan by putting the LRA on South Sudan payroll and offering the LRA tons of supplies that include food supplies, safe passage, market, lands, and even a five star hotel accommodation in Juba town for some of the LRA officials. (By the way, a five star hotel in Juba is built out of a tent, which probably making it deserving for the thugs like the LRA). And yet at the same time in a dramatic and contradicting move, the same government of South Sudan signed an ambitious treaty with the government of Uganda, which clearly shows that the Southern part of Sudan is given up to the Ugandans to ran it on Ugandan’s whim. The treaty allows the Ugandans to involve in every aspect of activities in the Southern part of the country and calls for open borders, a euphemism for lack of sovereign integrity.

According to the treaty, the UPDF will train and offer instructions to the Sudan People Liberation Army (SPLA), a former rebel movement, which is a far superior fighting force than the UPDF given its history of liberation war. The treaty also allows the UPDF to conduct patrols in South Sudan sovereign territory rendering the SPLA useless in its on territory. The treaty goes far in allowing the Ugandan police to actually come inside South Sudan and train the police there, which implies that South Sudan will be policed by the Ugandan police. Speaking of world police, Uganda is succeeding to become a world police in its little world of Great Lakes . The powerful Americans cannot succeed in police training in Iraq and Afghanistan , but Ugandans can in South Sudan . Perhaps there are some lessons there to be learned.

The treaty will also allow the Ugandans to control the communication system in South Sudan , which just shows that Ugandans are in the South Sudan to stay. According to the treaty, Ugandan experts in education, health, finance, trade, culture, etc. will come to the South Sudan to practice their expertise on the South Sudanese people and their sovereign land. In the South Sudanese history, the last period something like this ever happened, it was during colonial period. With this trend, the history of colonialization will surely be repeating itself in the beginning of twenty-first centaury in places like South Sudan.

However, to avoid this from happening, the authorities in South Sudan should do something wiser than allowing the colonialization of the South Sudan by the Ugandans. For example, there are more than a quarter of million of Sudanese refuges in Uganda, thousands of whom have gained expertise in areas necessary for capacity building in South Sudan. Therefore, instead of bringing Ugandan experts into the South Sudan why not bring Southern Sudanese experts who are in Uganda into South Sudan ? It does not take a genius to figure that. Does it? If the numbers of the Sudanese experts in Uganda are not enough, why not extend the recruitments of the South Sudanese experts from other countries where there are thousands of them who are experts, perhaps more qualified than the Ugandans?

Did someone say the move by South Sudanese government to let the Ugandan ran the affairs of the South Sudan is also contradicting with what that government is being doing? Yes, that government has been involved in mediating a controversial peace talks. One may ask, where will such a deal with Uganda leaves the LRA who are the enemies of the Ugandan government—the government that is apparently running the show in the South Sudan ? Vincent Otti, the second in command of LRA has the answer as he said, “I’m not afraid to say that if Riak Machar is mediating, then it is as if Museveni himself is mediating the peace talks.” For starters, Riak Machar is the top guy from the government of South Sudan who suppose to mediate peace talks between the LRA and the Ugandan government, and Museveni is the president of Uganda . Apparently the LRA people like Otti cannot see the difference between Riak Machar and Museveni. And he got a point, where is the difference?

So, is it really that Uganda is geopolitically strong so as for it to meddle into its neighbor’s internal affairs? Perhaps it is, but what is evidently true is that the Ugandan neighbors despite their potentials; they cannot manage the interest of their countries well and they completely ignore their sovereign integrity. However, for those neighboring countries to be weak as they are, it does not in anyway suggest that Uganda is strong. The solution for these problems lay somewhere in the boundaries of those countries aggressed by Ugandans—it is in the citizens of those countries—the real citizens who will invoke the pride of nationalism to drive the invading Ugandans out. Otherwise, the Ugandans will be there to stay and even extend to Somolia as they are already doing so.

* Steve Paterno is a Sudanese residing in the U.S.A., and he can be reached at [email protected]