Insurgency and intrigue could return Somalia to chaos

March 14, 2007 (NAIROBI) — Somalia’s prime minister appealed for US$32 million on Wednesday to finance a reconciliation conference while an increasingly sophisticated insurgency and political intrigue threaten to return Somalia to chaos and spread instability in a volatile region.

Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Gedi readily admitted that almost daily attacks by insurgents threaten his government’s ability to bring peace and assert authority over the chaotic Horn of Africa country. According to a United Nations report released Wednesday, 40,000 Somalis have fled the violence in Mogadishu in the past month alone.

Diplomats and Somali experts fear that unless Gedi agrees to step down, or at least share power with his opponents in a radical overhaul of his government, violence will again consume Somalia. Influential members of Gedi’s Hawiye clan have begun lobbying to replace Gedi with someone they believe will better represent their interests.

But said sharing political power would not be on the agenda of the reconciliation conference. Instead, it would bring together traditional elders, business people and religious leaders based on clan affiliation to discuss social issues.

Gedi insisted his security forces will take control of Mogadishu in time to convene a National Reconciliation Congress on April 16, perhaps the last chance for his government to win popular support in the capital.

“The security issue in the next two weeks will be a test for us,” Gedi told journalists in neighboring Kenya on Wednesday. He said that 4,000 newly trained government troops were in the process of deploying across Mogadishu to improve security.

Leaders of the Council of Islamic Courts, ousted by Ethiopian troops backing Gedi’s government in December, appear to be delivering on their promise to create an Iraq-style insurgency unless they are included in a new government. They have said in the past they want to appoint the next prime minister.

The insurgents demonstrated a new level of sophistication on Tuesday when they used a remote-controlled, roadside bomb to attack a government convoy, killing two officials and wounding the deputy mayor of Mogadishu. Just hours earlier, insurgents welcomed President Abdullahi Yusuf back from a foreign trip with a mortar attack on his residence. Yusuf was unhurt.

The fighting continues despite last week’s deployment of Ugandan troops as the vanguard of an African Union peacekeeping mission. While the peacekeepers have been ordered to protect key facilities and political leaders, they will not patrol the streets.

“We are not here to disarm anybody or to get involved in any fighting,” AU spokesman Capt. Paddy Ankunda said in Mogadishu. “We appeal to the leaders of the Islamic courts, wherever they are, to return back home and attend the country’s stabilization and national reconciliation conference.”

Diplomats from a variety of countries have told The Associated Press, on condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of ongoing peace efforts, that despite enormous pressure on Gedi to hold direct talks with the leaders of Somalia’s Islamic movement, he has repeatedly set conditions that make such talks practically impossible.

At stake is what the top U.S. diplomat for Africa, Jendayi Frazer, has called an unparalleled opportunity to install the first central government to Somalia since the country descended into anarchy in 1992. Since then the country has been divided into warring, clan-based fiefdoms run by warlords.

Gedi’s government was established along clan lines in an attempt to unite the country. But critics say key Cabinet ministers were chosen for their loyalty to Gedi and President Abdullahi Yusuf, not on their popularity within their clans.

“The problem is that they need to become even more representative insofar as … having members of the government that truly reflect the desires of the various clans,” Frazer told journalists in Washington on March 2.

Ted Dagne, an expert on Somalia at the Congressional Research Service, issued a report on Monday saying the current fighting in Mogadishu may only be a precursor to greater violence if talks do not succeed.

“If the objective of the reconciliation process is simply to have dialogue without a clear intent to share power … Somalia may continue to face political instability and uncertainty,” Dagne said. “Security forces are not facing an organized insurgency, although militia groups and forces loyal to the courts may re-emerge.”

In neighboring Kenya, police have gone on high alert because of the large number of Somalis pouring across the border, many of them loyal to the Islamic courts and opposed to Gedi’s government. More than 500 Somalis have been arrested and charged with immigration violations since January, a Kenyan police report said.

The clamping down on traditional smuggling routes follows a warning from the U.S. Embassy that terrorists may strike the World Cross Country Championships in Mombasa on March 24. Kenyan police have arrested at least one suspected terrorist allegedly involved in the plot after he fled Somalia a few weeks ago, senior police officials said.

Ethiopia also remains on high alert, after sending troops into Somalia to crush the Islamic movement and install Gedi in Mogadishu. Islamic militants have also threatened to stage attacks in Ethiopia’s capital, Addis Ababa.

Diplomats agree that peace in Somalia would go a long way to solving the Horn of Africa’s volatility, but that will depend on Somalia’s leaders and the success of the reconciliation conference.

(AP)