Ethiopia – The principle of peaceful transfer of power
By Muluneh Hailu
March 21, 2007 — A statement made by the Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi not long ago in an interview with a foreign newspaper correspondent where he said “he has had enough” supposedly meaning he will not stand for parliamentary elections in 2010, strangely enough went unnoticed by his opponents and proponents, save inaudible protests by his blindly devoted suite. In my view, it should have been a subject for a thorough discussion by all concerned parties who hold stake in Ethiopian politics. Certainly, one must be quite optimistic by nature to take for granted the words of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. His Excellency is used to lying so often that it is understandable his sensational declaration was not regrded seriously by many.
Nevertheless, it should be the duty of those who believe in one of the key conditions for the stability and progressive development of any nation – the principle of peaceful transfer of power – to catch him at his words by pursuing this issue and making it a theme for public deliberation.
Personally I assumed the Prime Minister would officially announce about his departure from the political scene or at least give a notion about such a possibility during the sixth regular meeting of his ruling front held on September 2006, thereby paving the way for his possible successor. As far as my observation goes, that is how they do it in many democratic states. Anyway, it is better late than never. The decision of the Prime Minister, if it is not another step to soothe the nation and the international community, may be a brilliant move to give the ruling front a serious advantage over the diverse opposition which seemingly is not prepared for such course of events. I have my doubts that the tactics and strategy of the diverse opposition, if there is any, is built on the assumption the Prime Minister will cling to power to the last breathe as his predecessors did and, the task should be to oust him using any possible means, be it legal or otherwise.
Actually, is as clear as broad daylight by now to any reasonable observer that the prime minister should go, and the sooner he does the better. As a politician with a developed instinct of self-preservation, the Prime Minister himself is hopefully aware of that. The question of the day, however, is not if the prime minister should leave, but rather how this procedure – the peaceful transfer of power – can be accomplished to the satisfaction of the majority of the parties engaged in the political struggle or, strictly speaking, in the struggle for power after the prime minister is gone.
In the given circumstances, the need for a successor with outstanding individual qualities and clean records, absent in the case of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, will be of paramount importance. It goes without saying that owing to the longstanding tradition which emanates from the primitive character of Ethiopian political culture, the influence of the leader in the future fate of the state is difficult to overestimate. In spite of the immense desire of the nation to breakaway from the ever crippling one-man rule, it would be difficult, if not unattainable, to change the existing system deeply rooted in the conscious of the Ethiopian society at once. We must admit; during the controversial may 2005 elections, Ethiopians voted namely against the person of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, perceiving him as a leader who voluntarily surrendered part of Ethiopia – the Eritrea province – thereby showing a total disdain for their dignity and aspirations, but not necessarily for the diverse opposition and its political agenda. Hence, the need for a charismatic and reliable leader who can restore the faith the nation lost in the power institutions and show the ability to preserve the integrity of the state.
Apart from this, the possible successor may find himself in an utterly different situation from his predecessors where he must win authority through arguments in his favor. Up to now the successive leaders of Ethiopia did not burden themselves with such a task; they usually used a powerful argument to easily convince the absolute majority of Ethiopians – the gun – and seize power till they were ousted by a still more powerfully armed and organized opponent. Meanwhile, due to the fast changing world in which dictators and dictatorship are turning into a rarity, the regime of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi was compelled to pretend that it renounced its faith in the gun by allowing the controversial may 2005 elections. The impact of the aforesaid elections, the outcome of which took by surprise all without exclusion parties involved was such that every attempt by the ruling front to use again the gun to restore the status quo existed before the elections remained futile, and will remain so in the future. This leaves the possible successor with the only option to receive the reins of government – to achieve legitimacy by peaceful means and through the thorny path of persuasion.
Speaking about the new phenomenon after the May 2005 elections, it is essential to note that the impression one gets is the parties involved in the elections did not to present date recover from the consequences: after opening yet another Pandora box without weighing the pros and cons, the ruling front “all of a sudden” found out that Ethiopians of all shades, to put it mildly, are not fond of the defunct revolutionary democracy ideology. As a result, it resorted to such desperate actions its very survival still remains open to question; the diverse opposition in turn lost its instinct of self-preservation after the unexpected success by overestimating its resources, only to find itself behind the bars or in exile, with the remainders in parliament as mere spectators.
In short, lack of a lasting idea to solve the impasse pending for the last two years remains the characteristic sign of the current Ethiopian politics. The statement made by the Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, assuming once again it is not yet one of his favorite tricks may be a starting point to cut this Gordian knot. In the same manner, a solution to the absurd situation of the arrested opposition political prisoners may be reached only after the current leader of the Ethiopian government retires and a peacful transfer of power attained. This means first and foremost task of the diverse opposition should be to prepare for the coming elections, not only be obsessed by the noble effort to secure the release of the prisoners of conscious. It is indeed very sad these ladies and gentlemen are unlawfully incarcerated, but at the same time there need be a more pragmatic approach to the struggle for democracy including the peaceful transfer of power. The journey towards such a goal did not start with them, and it must continue with or without them. While the sacrifice they made to bring into life an Ethiopia by the individual and for the individual beyond words is commendable, to turn them in to sacred cows would only harm the cause they served. We have in hand a sacred cow by the name of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi who we dream to be the last one in the long but tragic history of Ethiopia. Hence, the need to seek a lasting solution by following the path they took, not wait helplessly for their release, and fall prey to the tricks of the ruling front which possibly aims to confine the attention of its opponents to this issue alone.
To this end, I suggest the first step to be to inform the nation that Prime Minister Meles Zenawi has officially announced he is leaving his office soon, the overall believe – the sooner he does the better – may be a reality, and Ethiopia enters into the third millennium with the hope that he will be the last of the successive dictators the nation is forced to endure.
Needless to say, the diverse opposition should come to its senses and start realizing the mandate it got from its electorate to put in practice its promises including the principle of peaceful transfer of power.
Naturally, the most difficult part of this immense task is to find a level-headed leader with the appropriate criteria. The proponents of the ruling front lament from dawn to dusk there is no one else in Ethiopia to replace Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. They claim it is impossible to swap horses in midstream. We claim the opposite; there must be more than one individual who are far more capable. Otherwise, Ethiopia is not worth to exist as a nation.
* The author is a former Soviet Union student. He can be reached for comments at [email protected]