Questions remain whether Sudan will honor its Darfur pledge
By Alfred de Montesquiou ,
An AP NEWS ANALYSIS
April 17, 2007 (NYALA) — Pressure from the U.S. and Khartoum’s top ally, China, lies behind Sudan’s surprise decision to allow 3,000 U.N. peacekeepers in Darfur. But questions remain whether Sudan will honor the deal – and whether major countries will step forward with enough troops.
The Sudanese government agreed Monday after five months of stalling to accept the deployment of the peacekeepers, along with six U.N. attack helicopters, to help 7,000 African troops try to halt the violence.
That represents a major step toward dealing with a humanitarian crisis that has claimed more than 200,000 lives and forced 2.5 million people from their homes since 2003.
If the troops are deployed, it would be a boost to the African Union forces, who are too few to cover the sprawling territory, nearly the size of France or Texas. The helicopters give speed and mobility, allowing peacekeepers to reach remote villages even while attacks are taking place – unlike now, when A.U. troops may show up hours or days later, able only to count the dead.
“This agreement is the major breakthrough we were all hoping for,” Sudanese Foreign Minister Lam Akol told The Associated Press on Tuesday. “It proves that the government of Sudan wants to resolve all problems in Darfur.”
But much remains unclear.
Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir is still resisting U.S. and U.N. demands that he accept another, final phase of deployment of thousands more U.N. troops to build a joint U.N.-AU force of 20,000 soldiers and police.
Akol said the 3,000 would be the United Nations’ total quota of troops for Darfur, and that in the final phase, the U.N. would only provide logistical help to the African force. He described the final stage as a “hybrid operation” – not the “hybrid force” the U.N. seeks, meaning that the bulk of the troops would come from the United Nations.
Also, many are worried Sudan could try to roll back even on the 3,000 troops.
“We’ll see whether they’ve agreed when they actually start to deploy,” the acting U.S. ambassador to the U.N., Alejandro Wolff, told reporters Tuesday in New York.
U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair said Tuesday that sanctions should be imposed on Khartoum if it backs off the deployment. “It is clear that the only thing that will make the Sudanese government understand its responsibilities is pressure,” he said.
It is also unknown who will provide the 3,000 troops.
The U.S. and NATO are stretched to the limit in Iraq and Afghanistan. NATO spokeswoman Carmen Romero said the alliance will continue to provide logistics backup in Darfur but not significant troops on the ground.
The U.S., Europe and African Union all prefer that the troops come from African nations, though those already involved in the A.U. force aren’t so far offering more. Also, the Security Council needs to pass a new order for the mission, and the General Assembly still has to approve the several hundred million dollars it will cost to send the peacekeepers, the U.N. says.
Still, al-Bashir’s acceptance of the 3,000 U.N. troops is the first cause for any optimism in Darfur. Over the past months, the president vowed repeatedly that no U.N. soldier would set foot in the war-torn region.
The change could be a sign that international pressure is beginning to have an effect.
On Monday, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte, ending a visit to Sudan, bluntly warned that Khartoum faced “continued and possibly even intensified international isolation” over Darfur. Washington has threatened economic sanctions against 29 Sudanese companies.
Also piling on the pressure were the European Union and some African and Arab countries, particularly Saudi Arabia.
But perhaps most importantly, pressure has started to come from al-Bashir’s most powerful ally, China, which buys two-thirds of Sudan’s oil exports and sells Sudan weapons and military aircraft.
China had long resisted pushing Khartoum over the Darfur problem. But Beijing itself is now under pressure – not only from governments but from human rights groups, celebrities and social activists.
Sudan’s hardline stand is proving an embarrassment at a time when China is trying to enhance its world image ahead of the 2008 Beijing Olympics, observers say. Some activists have begun branding the upcoming games the “Genocide Olympics.”
“We’ve clearly touched a nerve with the Chinese,” said actress Mia Farrow, who has visited Darfur as a goodwill ambassador for UNICEF. “It shows that one thing is more important to the Chinese than their access to Sudan’s oil, and that’s the success of their Olympic Games.”
Chinese President Hu Jintao told Sudan’s leader during a visit last February that he must give the United Nations a bigger role in trying to resolve the conflict in Darfur. Last month, a senior Chinese diplomat visited a refugee camp in Darfur, a clear signal that Beijing was concerned about the crisis.
China’s new message to Khartoum appears to be “help us get these people off our back,” said John Prendergast of the International Crisis Group.
(AP)