Imposed unity on Darfur rebels will not bring peace
The Ninth Recommendation and Its Erroneous Assumption
By Mehari Taddele Maru
May 5, 2007 — In its April 2007 Africa Report entitled: Darfur: Revitalizing The Peace Process (African Report No 125, 30 April 2007), International Crisis Group (ICG) has came up with very important and useful analysis and recommendations for a way forward on resolution of the Darfur crisis. The works of ICG has been significantly helpful input for our understanding of the African conflicts. However, in this report ICG has got its main recommendation and conclusion wrong. ICG has recommended to Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) and the international community to push unification of (and common grounds) the rebel groups suggesting on page ii: “Pressure will have to be brought to bear on intransigent movements and their supporters”. Clear and fair enough the intended consequence of ICG recommendation, as I assume and make it clear in the other parts of the report, is to strengthen the common ground for negotiations. While I support the push for common negotiation ground, I have very serious doubts what the unintended consequences of this recommendation of ICG would be. I fear this is the very approach ICG in the same report condemned the international community’s pressure in the DPA process and DPA’s fragmenting effect. ICG has correctly noted one of the main shortcomings of the DPA was the “artificial deadlines” set on the DPA peace process in Abuja. However, by forwarding a self-defeating recommendation of “pressured unification of the rebel groups”, ICG commits a mistake similar to the DPA peace process. Moreover, on page 21, the ICG report concludes that unifying the rebel groups, due to their exponential fragmentation have reached ten, is one of “the prerequisite for peace”. This conclusion too has several impregnated questions or assumptions that are invalid for the following five reasons:
1. The effort of unifying the rebel groups could not be done without improper external pressure on all the factions, which could be construed as similar to the one in the signing of DPA. Moreover, such rushed unity by external pressure would lack legitimacy and sustainability. As far as such unity is a result of external pressure, still fragmentation is imminent and could be even dangerous. Let’s not forget the adverse effect of external pressure—what I call “The DPA-Effect” on the Darfurian struggle for justice and equality: spawning new divisions and fragmentation of the rebel groups, and thereof its limited Delegitimization consequence on the Darfurian rebel groups.
2. Within the ICG’s conclusion there is implicit assumption that the rebel groups have both legitimacy and popular acceptance in Darfur. The rebel groups have no de jure mandate, but are de facto bearers of shared-mandate with those organizations and traditional institutions which represent varied social movement and activities in the absence democratic process to determine who hold the mandate to represent the Darfurians. I do not want to diminish ICG’s excellently made argument on the need for broad consultation of all Darfurian including non-rebel social movements and the Arab Darfurians. In short, inclusive consultation is vital for inclusive security.
3. Traditional chiefs, religious leaders, Darfurians in Diaspora, Darfurian civil society and Arab-Darfurians perhaps have more non-military de facto legitimacy than the rebel groups.
4. Needless to repeat, the rebel groups as member of the Darfurian and Sudanese political forces and more importantly with arms should be consulted. However, I strongly believe that as of yet the most binding constraint for the Darfur peace process have been the heavy reliance on the rebel groups. It is vital to note that as the new political organizations with lot of pressure for international actors, their fragmentation will continue unabated for long time to come and their legitimacy may shrink as they fragment.
5. Forced unity among the rebel groups will not stop such fragmentation. Fragmentation within rebel groups and political parties in Africa has been a result of external pressure and their undemocratic nature of internal political life. A constructive role for the international community and SPLM is to require all rebel groups to have a democratically elected leadership and respect human rights of their members. This requirement is not only legitimacy boosting but also investment in the future democratic governance of Darfur and Sudan as whole.
* The writer has served as Legal Expert at African Union Commission. He was also the Director for University Reform at Addis Ababa University. Currently, he is a postgraduate student at Harvard University. He holds M.Sc from University of Oxford and LLB from Addis Ababa University and was a fellow of Ethno-political Conflict Studies at University of Pennsylvania. He can be reached at [email protected]